Core Viewpoint - The upcoming decision on the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is a significant topic of discussion on Wall Street, with expectations that President Trump will announce his choice soon, particularly during the Federal Reserve's decision announcement period this week [1][2]. Group 1: Announcement Timing - Analysts from Wolfe Research highlight a critical 90-minute window during the Federal Reserve's FOMC decision announcement, where Trump is likely to make his announcement to shift market focus away from the Fed's decision not to cut rates [2][3]. - Even if the announcement does not occur during the Fed's decision period, it is anticipated to happen either this week or in the following weeks, especially before the March FOMC meeting [4]. Group 2: Candidate Impact on Markets - Wolfe Research assesses the market reactions to potential candidates for the Fed chair position, noting that Rick Rieder and Kevin Hassett are viewed as relatively moderate, while Christopher Waller and Kevin Walsh are seen as more aggressive [5]. - If Hassett is chosen, it could lead to a steeper yield curve, whereas Walsh's selection might flatten the curve, indicating that Hassett could have the most significant market impact among the candidates [5]. Group 3: Uncertainty in Selection - There is uncertainty regarding who Trump will ultimately choose, as there appears to be no "perfect candidate" that meets all presidential criteria [6]. - Wolfe Research suggests that the likelihood of Hassett being selected is higher than the current implied probability of 6% in the betting markets [6].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the criminal investigation initiated by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's Washington headquarters [3] - The investigation includes an analysis of Powell's public statements and a review of expenditure records, approved by U.S. Attorney Janine Pirro, a long-time ally of Trump [3] - President Trump has expressed his dissatisfaction with Powell's performance, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, and has threatened legal action against him due to the management of the Fed building renovation, which he claims cost billions [7] Group 2 - Trump has indicated that he plans to announce Powell's successor in January 2026, as Powell's term ends in May 2026 [5] - Since taking office again in January 2025, Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and reduce government borrowing costs [5] - Trump has criticized the Fed's recent interest rate cuts, suggesting that the latest cut could have been doubled, and has labeled Powell as "stubborn" [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's increasing focus on potential successors for the Federal Reserve Chair as Jerome Powell's term nears its end, highlighting Kevin Walsh as the top candidate and Trump's desire for lower interest rates to reduce government borrowing costs [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Succession - President Trump identifies Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor, as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Hassett also being considered [1]. - Trump expresses a wish for the federal funds rate to be lowered to "1% or even lower" within a year to alleviate the high financing costs of U.S. debt [1]. Group 2: Current Fed Chair and Policy Independence - Jerome Powell's term is set to expire in May next year, and Trump has previously criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly enough [1]. - Despite Trump's criticisms and threats to remove Powell, he has maintained his position, emphasizing the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. monetary policy is at a historic crossroads, facing challenges from persistent inflation and weak employment, with strong indications that Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair [1]. Group 1: Candidate Profile - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the National Economic Council, has seen his chances of becoming the next Fed Chair rise sharply, with predictions showing his probability exceeding 85% [1]. - Hassett has a mixed background as an economist and a political figure, which could be both an asset and a source of concern for the market [1]. - He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has extensive experience in both academia and policy-making, including a tenure at the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Research and Policy Influence - Hassett's core research area has been fiscal taxation, particularly focusing on how tax policies can significantly influence corporate investment decisions [4]. - He has advocated for lower corporate tax rates to enhance global competitiveness, which laid the groundwork for the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act [4]. - His views on asset pricing and tax policy have been influential, arguing that tax reductions can lead to asset price revaluation and increased shareholder wealth [4][5]. Group 3: Political Background and Controversies - Before joining the Trump administration, Hassett built political capital within the Republican establishment, serving as an economic advisor for several presidential campaigns [8]. - As Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, he was a key architect of the 2017 tax reform, which reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% [9]. - His controversial predictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly regarding the economic recovery and death toll, have raised concerns about his reliance on data and objectivity [10][11]. Group 4: Potential Impact on Monetary Policy - Concerns have emerged regarding Hassett's potential impact on the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly his alignment with political narratives and criticism of the current Fed's policies [15]. - The market is wary of the possibility that Hassett may prioritize political objectives over economic data, potentially leading to misguided monetary policy decisions [12][15]. - His approach to financial regulation is expected to favor deregulation, which could significantly benefit the banking sector and influence market dynamics [16]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The financial market is reacting positively to Hassett's potential nomination, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities [16]. - There are concerns about the "shadow chair" effect if Hassett is nominated before Powell's term ends, which could lead to market volatility based on his public statements [16]. - The outcome of Hassett's nomination process will likely shape the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and market risk preferences, with significant implications for inflation and economic stability [18].

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, expressed his willingness to accept the position of Federal Reserve Chairman if nominated by President Donald Trump, indicating a preference for more significant interest rate cuts in the upcoming December meeting [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Hassett anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points based on various indicators [1] - He suggested that there is justification for a more substantial rate cut of 50 basis points [1] Group 2: Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - Hassett stated that for each week the government remains shut down, the U.S. GDP incurs a loss of approximately $15 billion [1] - He noted that the inflation data for September was below expectations, which may influence monetary policy decisions [1] Group 3: Relationship with Jerome Powell - Despite differences in policy views, Hassett expressed respect for current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, contrasting with Trump's frequent public criticisms [1] - Hassett mentioned his long-standing relationship with Powell, having engaged in numerous economic discussions during both the previous and current administrations [1] Group 4: Nomination Timing - Hassett confirmed discussions with Trump regarding the acceptance of the nomination but did not disclose when an announcement might be made [1] - He highlighted the political risks associated with nominating a successor to Powell before his term ends in May of the following year [1]

Core Points - President Trump is expected to announce a successor to current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the end of the year [1][3] - The range of candidates has been narrowed down to five individuals [3][4] Candidate Summary - The five candidates include Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Rieder [3][4] - Waller and Hassett are seen as frontrunners, with both having close ties to Trump [6] - Hassett's close relationship with Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve if he is appointed [6] - Waller has previously criticized the Fed's policies, which aligns with Trump's views [6][7] - Bowman and Rieder are also considered viable candidates, with Bowman opposing many Biden-era regulations and Rieder bringing a fresh perspective from Wall Street [7] Monetary Policy Context - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates, which has influenced the urgency of selecting a new chair [9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points soon, with the current inflation rate around 3% [10] - The announcement of a new chair typically occurs in the last quarter of the current chair's term to avoid market uncertainty [10]

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold T+D is around 772.85 CNY per gram, with a slight decline of 0.07% [1] - The highest price reached today is 774.60 CNY per gram, while the lowest is 770.22 CNY per gram, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - Key technical levels for gold T+D are identified, with strong resistance between 784-874 CNY per gram and important support between 770-815 CNY per gram [3] Group 2 - EJ Antoni, nominated by President Trump as the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has previously suggested that the agency should pause monthly employment reports until issues are corrected [2] - The Trump administration is expanding the list of candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, aiming for individuals who can gain both presidential and market trust [2] - Potential candidates include current Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Bowman, Dallas Fed President Logan, former St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and macroeconomic advisor Summerlin, among others [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expanding the list of candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, seeking someone who can gain both presidential and financial market trust [1] Group 1: Candidate Considerations - Current candidates under consideration include Federal Reserve Vice Chairmen Jefferson and Bowman, Dallas Fed President Logan, former St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and macroeconomic advisor Summerlin [1] - The administration may also consider additional candidates from the private sector, indicating a diverse range of options for Trump to choose from [1] Group 2: Existing Candidate List - The existing list already includes White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, and current Fed Governor Waller [1] - This diverse candidate list reflects the administration's goal to provide a variety of choices to replace Powell [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is leading the search for the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizing the need for a candidate who can analyze complex economic data and gain market trust [1] Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Chairman should possess the ability to review the entire institution and focus on forward-thinking rather than relying solely on historical data [1] - President Trump has been vocal about his desire for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and is using the topic of the next chairman to pressure Powell [1] - Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must remain "completely non-political" and stated that the Fed is still assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs before making further decisions [1] Group 2 - Powell's term is set to end in May 2026, and typically, the U.S. President announces the next nominee in the final months of the current chairman's term [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump announced that Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen will not be considered for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, narrowing the search for Jerome Powell's successor and clarifying previous uncertainties surrounding the matter [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Decision and Its Implications - Trump's decision to remove Bentsen from consideration highlights a dynamic shift in the administration's approach to the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - Bentsen, previously a hedge fund leader, has become a key figure in Trump's economic and trade policies, noted for his strong support of Trump's economic agenda and criticism of the Fed for not lowering interest rates as requested [2][4]. Group 2: Bentsen's Position and Future - Bentsen has publicly stated that he believes his current role is the "best job in Washington" and expressed a desire to remain in his position as long as the President deems it appropriate [5][10]. - Despite stepping back from the Fed Chairman candidacy, Bentsen has played a significant role in the selection process for Powell's successor, advocating for an internal review of the Fed [5][10]. Group 3: Criticism of Powell and Future Candidates - Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for being slow to cut interest rates and has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's costly renovation project [4][7]. - Potential candidates for Powell's successor include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, Michelle Bowman, and Christopher Waller, with Bentsen's withdrawal clarifying the competitive landscape for the position [10].