Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the current state of the foreign exchange market, particularly focusing on the US dollar index and its interactions with major currencies, as well as geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [1][4]. Currency Analysis - The US dollar index faced resistance below 98.60 and support above 97.60, indicating a potential downward trend after a short-term rise. If the index rises but remains below 98.65, the target for a decline could be between 97.65 and 97.15 [2]. - The EUR/USD pair showed a similar pattern, with support above 1.1485 and resistance below 1.1615. A rise today that fails to exceed 1.1610 could lead to a decline targeting 1.1480 to 1.1425 [2]. - The USD/JPY pair broke its upward trend from April, suggesting a possible return to a downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50, and the MACD has crossed below the signal line, indicating a bearish outlook. Key support levels are at 142.42 and 141.65, with a potential drop towards 140 if the trend continues [3]. Geopolitical Events - Tensions in the Middle East are affecting market sentiment, with Trump indicating the possibility of US intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict. He warned of a significant response if Iran attacks the US [4]. - Netanyahu stated that Israel would cease military actions if Iran agrees to abandon its nuclear program, highlighting the ongoing geopolitical risks in the region [5]. - Iran has reportedly launched missile attacks on Israel, escalating the conflict and prompting military responses from Israel [5]. Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to watch includes the release of the June New York Fed Manufacturing Index and various reports from China regarding housing prices and industrial output [7][8].

Group 1 - The recent US-China trade talks in Geneva resulted in significant agreements, including the establishment of a trade consultation mechanism [2] - Both parties committed to modifying tariffs on each other's goods, with a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days and retention of a 10% tariff [2] - The talks were characterized by a constructive atmosphere, with representatives from both sides engaging in open discussions [1][2] Group 2 - The US dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a recent high of 101.46, with a 1.04% increase [1] - The dollar index experienced fluctuations, with a peak of 100.842 and a low of 100.059, closing at 100.407 [3] - Analysts suggest that the dollar index may face resistance at the 102.80 level, indicating a potential bearish trend in the medium term [3]