Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the current state of the foreign exchange market, particularly focusing on the US dollar index and its interactions with major currencies, as well as geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [1][4]. Currency Analysis - The US dollar index faced resistance below 98.60 and support above 97.60, indicating a potential downward trend after a short-term rise. If the index rises but remains below 98.65, the target for a decline could be between 97.65 and 97.15 [2]. - The EUR/USD pair showed a similar pattern, with support above 1.1485 and resistance below 1.1615. A rise today that fails to exceed 1.1610 could lead to a decline targeting 1.1480 to 1.1425 [2]. - The USD/JPY pair broke its upward trend from April, suggesting a possible return to a downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50, and the MACD has crossed below the signal line, indicating a bearish outlook. Key support levels are at 142.42 and 141.65, with a potential drop towards 140 if the trend continues [3]. Geopolitical Events - Tensions in the Middle East are affecting market sentiment, with Trump indicating the possibility of US intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict. He warned of a significant response if Iran attacks the US [4]. - Netanyahu stated that Israel would cease military actions if Iran agrees to abandon its nuclear program, highlighting the ongoing geopolitical risks in the region [5]. - Iran has reportedly launched missile attacks on Israel, escalating the conflict and prompting military responses from Israel [5]. Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to watch includes the release of the June New York Fed Manufacturing Index and various reports from China regarding housing prices and industrial output [7][8].

周一（5月12日）欧盘时段，美元指数保持上行，最近美元指数报101.46，涨幅1.04%，5月10日至11 日，中美在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈，双方就经贸问题深入交流，达成建立经贸磋商机制等重要共 识，会谈氛围坦诚且具建设性。 据商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明：双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取以下举措：美国将 （一）修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政 区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对 这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；（二）取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266 号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。中国将（一）相应修改税委会公告2025年第4号规定的对美国商品加 征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留对这些商品加征剩余10%的关 税，并取消根据税委会公告2025年第5号和第6号对这些商品的加征关税；（二）采取必要措施，暂停或 取消自2025年4月2日起针对美国的非关税反制措施。采取上述举措后，双方将建立机制，继续就经贸 ...