Market Trends & Fed Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points and decided to end quantitative tightening starting December 1st [1] - Historically, the stock market has performed well in the 12 months following similar rate cuts during periods of index highs, with an average gain of nearly 20% [1] - Despite the Fed rate cut, bond yields rose, indicating that bond prices fell, reflecting an inverse relationship with Fed rates [1] Bond Market Dynamics - Bond price fluctuations are primarily driven by four factors: inflation expectations, growth expectations, bond supply and demand, and distrust in the Federal Reserve [1] - Inflation expectations erode the real return on bonds, making them less attractive, especially long-term bonds [1] - Expectations of economic growth lead investors to prefer stocks over bonds with lower yields [1] - Increased bond issuance by the US government can lead to oversupply, causing bond prices to fall and yields to rise to attract buyers [1] - Some investors believe the Fed is "behind the curve," suggesting that the rate cut is too late and inflation may rebound, potentially leading to future rate hikes [1] Investment Strategy - The industry advises against speculating on bonds, particularly long-term bonds (e g, TLT), due to potential misunderstandings about bond market dynamics [1] - The yield on a 5-year bond can be seen as the market's average interest rate expectation for the next five years [1]

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