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大摩看好雪佛龙(CVX.US)收购赫斯提升业务稳定性 给予“增持”评级与174美元目标价
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-05 03:49
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has resumed coverage of Chevron (CVX.US) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of $174, believing that the acquisition of Hess has significantly enhanced business stability and growth potential, despite slightly lower long-term growth prospects compared to some peers [1] Group 1: Acquisition Impact - Chevron completed the acquisition of Hess for $53 billion on July 18, which resolved long-standing uncertainties and is expected to enhance business stability and growth [1] - The merger is projected to result in capital expenditures between $19 billion and $22 billion, with an anticipated $1 billion in operational cost synergies by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Chevron's Q2 adjusted profit reached $3.1 billion, with earnings per share of $1.77 and cash flow per share of $4.81, exceeding market expectations [2] - The primary source of profit, oil and gas production, generated $2.7 billion, down from $4.5 billion year-over-year [2] Group 3: Production and Growth Outlook - Total production for Chevron approached 3.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, slightly exceeding market expectations, with the Permian Basin achieving a long-term target of 1 million barrels per day [2] - The acquisition of Hess is expected to extend Chevron's growth cycle and enhance future development prospects, particularly through the Guyana project where Chevron holds a 30% stake [2][3] Group 4: Cash Flow and Competitive Position - Under a baseline WTI oil price of $60, Chevron's free cash flow return on equity is projected to reach 8% by 2026, outperforming ExxonMobil's 6% and ConocoPhillips' 7% [3] - Recent layoffs and asset consolidation in Kazakhstan and the Gulf of Mexico reflect Chevron's flexible strategy in adapting to market changes [3]