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大摩:视觉数据重构AI机器人竞争格局 特斯拉(TSLA.US)为核心关注标的
智通财经网· 2025-09-24 13:36
Core Insights - The competition for AI robots has shifted from "algorithm iteration" to "data acquisition," with visual data being the core resource for training VLA models, directly impacting a company's position in the industry [1][2] - Companies like Tesla, Meta, and Brookfield are focusing on "scene coverage + data accumulation" to build technological barriers in the AI robot sector [1][2] Group 1: Nature of the "Photon War" - Visual data is described as the "fuel" for AI robots, with its value being contingent on the ability to collect and process it effectively [3] - The report uses the analogy of a bluefin tuna to illustrate that without the means to capture visual data, its potential value remains untapped [3] - Companies are deploying cameras in various environments to gather high-quality visual training data, which is crucial for AI robot development [3] Group 2: Tesla's Focus on Visual Training - Tesla is transitioning to a pure visual training approach for its Optimus robot, moving from human-assisted tasks to data-driven autonomous learning [4] - The shift to using recorded videos of factory workers performing tasks aims to reduce training costs and enhance the robot's ability to learn complex operations in real-world industrial settings [4] - Skild AI is also building a "robotic foundation model" using human action videos from the internet, further emphasizing the value of real-world scene data in robot training [4] Group 3: Major Players Competing for Visual Data - Meta is embedding ultra-high-definition cameras in its next-generation wearable devices to capture user actions, which will serve as valuable training data for AI robots [5][6] - The projected ownership of Meta's devices could reach 20 million units within two years, significantly surpassing the current number of Tesla vehicles [6] - Brookfield is leveraging its extensive real estate assets to collect diverse training data for AI robots, collaborating with Figure AI to activate over 1 million residential units and substantial commercial spaces [6][7] Group 4: Investment Perspective - Tesla is highlighted as a core investment focus, with a target stock price of $410, driven by breakthroughs in AI robot technology and data accumulation [8] - The report identifies key variables that will support Tesla's long-term valuation, including advancements in AI robotics and data ecosystems [8]