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钛精矿供需平衡
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东方证券:钛精矿供需或继续趋于宽松 价格下行释放下游盈利空间
智通财经网· 2025-10-22 03:35
Core Viewpoint - The upstream titanium concentrate supply-demand gap is expected to continue narrowing in the medium term, leading to a more relaxed raw material supply, which may reduce costs for titanium processing companies and enhance their profit margins [1] Supply - Titanium concentrate production has been declining in recent years, with global reserves expected to decrease by 25.3% year-on-year in 2024 due to the closure of old mines in Australia and slow exploration of new mines [2] - It is projected that titanium concentrate supply will increase to 9.84 million tons, 10.27 million tons, and 10.71 million tons from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 4.4%, and 4.3% respectively [2] Demand - The demand for titanium concentrate may slow down in the medium term as the expansion rate of midstream smelting products, such as titanium dioxide and sponge titanium, is expected to decelerate [3] - Although domestic production of titanium dioxide and sponge titanium has been expanding, overall global production capacity growth is expected to decline, particularly in overseas markets [3] Price - The supply of titanium concentrate is anticipated to become more relaxed, with prices expected to decline, which will likely benefit downstream titanium material companies by lowering production costs and enhancing profit margins [4] - From 2025 to 2027, the growth rate of titanium concentrate demand is expected to be lower than that of supply, indicating a continued narrowing of the supply-demand gap and further price reduction potential [4]