新兴市场货币指数刷新日高，美联储主席鲍威尔在听证会上谈及2025年降息的可能性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and strategies in the gold market, highlighting both short-term and long-term trading opportunities based on technical analysis and market conditions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The gold market is maintaining an upward channel on a weekly basis, with long-term strategies suggesting to buy on dips [1]. - A daily breakout above the descending channel's upper boundary indicates potential for mid-term buying opportunities during pullbacks [1]. - The 4-hour chart shows a complete upward channel, favoring a low-buy strategy for short-term trades [1]. - The 30-minute chart indicates a descending channel structure, suggesting a need to watch for rebound selling opportunities [1]. Group 2: Key Levels and Trading Strategies - Key resistance levels are identified at 3380-3385, where traders may consider short positions if a rebound encounters resistance [1][3]. - Support levels are noted at 3330-3325, with emphasis on monitoring the defense of this support area [1]. - Specific trading strategies include buying gold near 3340-3335 with a stop loss at 3327 and a target of 3360-3380 [2]. - Conversely, selling gold near 3380-3385 is recommended with a stop loss at 3393 and a target of 3365-3345 [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent data from the U.S. Labor Department shows a decrease in initial jobless claims to 245,000, aligning with expectations, while continuing claims slightly exceeded forecasts [4]. - The labor market is experiencing a moderate slowdown, with layoffs remaining at historically low levels [4]. - Market sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is influencing the dollar and supporting gold prices [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve are contributing to upward support for gold prices despite short-term fluctuations due to dollar strength [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a divided outlook among its officials regarding interest rate cuts in 2025, with varying expectations on the number of potential cuts [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Expectations - Out of 19 officials, 7 believe there will be no rate cuts in 2025 [1] - 2 officials expect one rate cut [1] - 8 officials anticipate two rate cuts [1] - 2 officials predict three rate cuts [1]