Core Viewpoint - Pfizer (PFE) is currently trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a short-term bullish trend and presenting an attractive investment opportunity from a technical perspective [1][10]. Financial Performance - Pfizer's COVID-19 product sales are projected to decline significantly, with revenues expected to drop to approximately $11 billion in 2024 from $56.7 billion in 2022, and similar figures anticipated for 2025 [4]. - Despite the decline in COVID-related sales, Pfizer's non-COVID operational revenues improved in 2024, driven by key products such as Vyndaqel, Padcev, and Eliquis, as well as new launches and acquisitions [5]. - Pfizer expects a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% from 2025 to 2030, supported by its diversified drug portfolio [6]. Product Pipeline and Market Position - Pfizer has strengthened its position in oncology through the acquisition of Seagen, enhancing its portfolio with several successful oncology drugs and a robust clinical pipeline [7][8]. - The company is advancing several late-stage oncology candidates and expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines by 2030 [8]. Challenges and Strategic Initiatives - Pfizer anticipates a moderate negative impact on revenues due to the loss of exclusivity for several key products between 2026 and 2030 [12]. - The company expects an unfavorable impact of approximately $1 billion from the redesign of Medicare Part D under the Inflation Reduction Act [13]. - Pfizer is implementing cost-cutting measures and internal restructuring, aiming for savings of $7.7 billion by the end of 2027, which should support profit growth [24]. Valuation and Investment Outlook - Pfizer's stock is trading below its 5-year average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, currently at 8.23 compared to the industry average of 15.05, indicating potential value for investors [18]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings remains unchanged at $3.06 per share for 2025 and $3.09 for 2026, suggesting stability in earnings expectations [21]. - With a dividend yield of around 7%, Pfizer presents an attractive option for income investors, alongside its potential for capital appreciation [24][25].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has reached a significant support level, making it an attractive option for investors from a technical standpoint, with the stock breaking through its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a potential short-term bullish trend [1][9] - The company's cardiometabolic business, particularly the success of its diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine Zepbound, has become a key driver of revenue [3][4] - Despite some challenges, Lilly expects substantial revenue growth in 2025, driven by Mounjaro, Zepbound, and other new drug approvals [31][32] Company Performance - LLY's stock has traded below its 50-day average since early May due to an earnings miss and guidance cut, but it has recently shown signs of recovery [2][9] - Mounjaro and Zepbound generated combined sales of $6.15 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for approximately 48% of the company's total revenues [4][9] - The company expects 2025 revenues to be between $58 billion and $61 billion, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth [31][32] Product Pipeline and Growth Drivers - Lilly has launched Mounjaro in new international markets, including China, India, and Mexico, which is expected to drive future sales growth [6][11] - The FDA approved Zepbound for a second indication, which could further enhance sales [7] - Lilly's pipeline includes several promising candidates in obesity, diabetes, and cancer, with key mid and late-stage data readouts expected this year [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The obesity market is projected to expand to $100 billion by 2030, leading to increased competition, particularly from Novo Nordisk and other companies developing GLP-1-based therapies [14][15] - Mounjaro and Zepbound face competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide medicines and other emerging candidates from companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics [15][16] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Lilly's stock has risen 5.6% this year, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [22][24] - The stock currently trades at a price/earnings ratio of 31.34, higher than the industry average of 15.51, but below its 5-year mean of 34.54 [26][29] - Estimates for Lilly's 2025 earnings have declined recently, but the company still shows solid growth prospects [29][32]

Core Viewpoint - Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) has shown a year-to-date (YTD) share price increase of 1.9%, outperforming the industry growth of 1.7% and the S&P 500 decline of 1.8%, but underperforming the Finance sector's return of 3.9% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - PFG's market capitalization stands at $17.68 billion, with an average trading volume of 1.5 million shares over the last three months [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PFG's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 15.6%, with revenues projected at $16.19 billion, reflecting a 3.5% improvement [10] - The company expects earnings per share and revenues to grow by 11.8% and 4.3%, respectively, in 2026 compared to 2025 estimates [10] Group 2: Growth Drivers - PFG's revenue growth is anticipated to improve due to higher premiums, fees, and enhanced net investment income across its segments [11] - The company benefits from its leadership in retirement and long-term savings, group benefits, and global asset management, which contribute to solid operating earnings [12] - The Specialty Benefits Insurance business is expected to thrive from record sales, strong retention, and employment growth, positively impacting pre-tax operating earnings [13] Group 3: Capital Management - PFG has a strong capital position with sufficient cash generation capabilities, revising its RBC target to a range of 375% to 400% [15] - The company plans to deploy $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion in capital in 2025, allocating 35-45% of net income for share buybacks and about 10% for strategic M&A activities [18] - PFG raised its dividend for the seventh consecutive quarter, reflecting a 7% increase year-over-year and a solid dividend yield of 3.4%, higher than the industry average of 2% [16] Group 4: Valuation - PFG's shares are trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 9.34, which is higher than the industry average of 8.74, indicating an expensive valuation [6][9] - Despite the premium valuation, the company is expected to benefit from strategic buyouts, strong retention, and effective capital deployment [19]

Core Viewpoint - NIKE Inc. is experiencing a significant decline in stock performance, with shares dropping below key moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment and concerns over growth prospects [1][5][9]. Stock Performance - On May 23, 2025, NIKE's stock closed at $60.02, below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $60.89, marking a short-term bearish trend [1][3]. - The stock has lost 24.4% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Shoes and Retail Apparel industry's decline of 20.2% and the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector's decline of 0.9% [5][6]. - Currently, NIKE's stock trades 38.8% below its 52-week high of $98.04 and 14.8% above its 52-week low of $52.28 [8]. Growth Concerns - The decline in stock price is attributed to concerns regarding NIKE's growth prospects, including weak performance in the lifestyle segment and a drop in digital sales, alongside lower retail traffic in Greater China [9][11]. - Management has indicated potential mid-teen revenue declines due to shipment timing disruptions, adverse foreign exchange rates, and new tariffs on imports [11][12]. Margin and Profitability - NIKE anticipates a gross margin contraction of 400-500 basis points, influenced by prior restructuring charges and ongoing margin pressures [12]. - SG&A expenses are expected to grow in the low to mid-single digits, further squeezing profitability [12]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE's fiscal 2025 EPS remains unchanged, while the estimate for fiscal 2026 EPS has decreased by a penny [13]. - For fiscal 2025, revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 10.7% and 45.6%, respectively, with fiscal 2026 estimates indicating further declines of 1.4% and 9.8% [15]. Strategic Initiatives - NIKE is focusing on its "Win Now" strategy, which includes tighter inventory control, accelerated innovation, and strengthened wholesale partnerships to stabilize performance [16][17]. - The company is enhancing its sports-driven identity through faster product development and a shift towards full-price, digitally led sales [17]. Valuation Perspective - NIKE's current forward P/E ratio of 30.86X is significantly higher than the industry average of 24.21X and the S&P 500's average of 21.36X, raising questions about the justification of its premium valuation [18][20]. - Competitors like adidas, Caleres, and Carter's have lower forward P/E ratios, indicating a stretched valuation for NIKE [20]. Long-Term Outlook - Despite near-term challenges, NIKE's long-term potential is supported by its strong brand equity, innovation, and strategic direction aimed at reigniting growth [22]. - The company is well-positioned for long-term, profitable growth, but current market conditions and technical indicators suggest a cautious approach [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - Voya Financial, Inc. (VOYA) is experiencing a short-term bullish trend, trading above its 50-day simple moving average, despite a 20.8% decline from its 52-week high. The company shows strong growth projections and attractive valuations, making it a stock worth holding. Group 1: Price Movement and Valuation - As of May 22, 2025, VOYA's share price was $66.72, down from a 52-week high of $84.30 [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $6.42 billion and an average trading volume of 1.07 million shares over the last three months [4] - VOYA shares are trading at a price-to-book multiple of 1.04X, significantly lower than the industry average of 1.9X, the Finance sector's 4.23X, and the S&P 500 Composite's 7.87X [5] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VOYA's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 33.8%, with revenues expected to reach $1.18 billion, reflecting a 9.6% improvement [7] - For 2026, earnings per share and revenues are projected to increase by 19.5% and 11.3%, respectively, compared to 2025 estimates [9] - VOYA's earnings have grown by 12.2% over the past five years, outperforming the industry average of 7.8% [9] Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - Five out of six analysts covering VOYA have raised their estimates for 2025, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 increasing by 4.8% and 2.9%, respectively, in the last 30 days [10] Group 4: Segment Performance - VOYA's earnings are driven by strong performances in Wealth Solutions, Investment Management, and Health Solutions, which are characterized by higher growth and returns [14] - The Wealth Solutions segment is experiencing growth due to improved investment income and lower administrative expenses [15] - The Investment Management segment is expected to benefit from higher investment capital returns and improved fee revenues [16] Group 5: Capital Generation and Deployment - VOYA anticipates generating approximately $750 million of excess capital in 2025, with an expected increase of $100 million driven by strategic actions [18] - In Q1 2025, VOYA generated around $200 million of excess capital, returning $43 million to shareholders through dividends and retiring $400 million of senior notes [19] Group 6: Conclusion - Voya Financial is well-positioned for growth due to improved investment income, strategic partnerships, and effective capital deployment [20] - The company's solid growth projections, optimistic analyst sentiment, and attractive valuations further support its investment potential [21]

Core Viewpoint - American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is experiencing a short-term bullish trend despite a recent decline in share price, with potential growth driven by strategic acquisitions and improved underwriting performance [1][18]. Price Movement - AFG's share price is currently $127.14, down 15.3% from its 52-week high of $150.19, while trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) [1]. Valuation - AFG's forward 12-month price-to-book ratio stands at 2.41X, exceeding the industry average of 1.58X, indicating an expensive valuation [4]. Price Performance - Over the past year, AFG shares have decreased by 4.2%, contrasting with the industry's growth of 22.5%, the Finance sector's return of 18.1%, and the S&P 500's appreciation of 11.6% [5][6]. Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects AFG's 2025 revenues at $8.21 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.1%, with further growth anticipated in 2026 [8]. Analyst Sentiment - Analyst sentiment has turned bearish, with the consensus estimate for 2025 earnings down by 0.5% and for 2026 down by 0.7% over the past 30 days [9]. Return on Capital - AFG's return on equity (ROE) for the trailing 12 months is 18.3%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.8%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds [10]. Growth Factors - AFG is well-positioned for growth due to new business opportunities, a favorable renewal rate environment, and strategic acquisitions, particularly in the Crop Risk Services segment [11][12]. Combined Ratio - AFG has maintained a combined ratio better than the industry average for over two decades, with an expected combined ratio of 92.5% for 2025 [13]. Dividend Distribution - The company has increased its dividend for 18 consecutive years, reflecting financial stability and robust operating profitability, with a dividend yield of 2.5%, surpassing the industry average of 0.2% [14][16]. Conclusion - Despite an expensive valuation and bearish analyst sentiment, AFG's strategic initiatives and favorable growth estimates make it an attractive stock to hold [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is currently experiencing a short-term bullish trend, trading above its 50-day simple moving average, despite a significant decline from its 52-week high [1]. Price Performance - ACGL's share price is $94.59, down 18.7% from its 52-week high of $116.47 [1]. - Over the past year, ACGL shares have gained 2.4%, underperforming the industry growth of 12.8% and the Finance sector's growth of 6.3%, but outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite return of 0.6% [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - ACGL is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-book ratio of 1.72X, above the industry average of 1.58X, indicating an expensive valuation [6]. - The company has a Value Score of B, suggesting a relatively attractive valuation compared to peers [6]. Profitability - Arch Capital's trailing 12-month return on equity is 15.7%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.8%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholders' equity [9]. Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arch Capital's 2025 revenues is $18.88 billion, representing a year-over-year improvement of 13.5% [10]. - For 2026, the consensus estimates indicate a year-over-year increase of 20.3% in earnings per share and 5.8% in revenues from the 2025 estimates [10]. - Earnings have grown by 33.5% over the past five years, outperforming the industry average of 18.9% [10]. Earnings Performance - Arch Capital has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 13.93% [11]. Business Strengths - The company benefits from widespread operations and a compelling product portfolio, providing diversification and earnings stability [12]. - Significant efforts in inorganic growth through acquisitions have aided international expansion and enhanced operations [12]. - Solid performances in both the Insurance and Reinsurance segments, complemented by Mortgage Insurance, are expected to drive premium growth [13]. Financial Health - ACGL has maintained a free cash flow conversion rate of over 85% in recent quarters, indicating strong earnings [14]. - The company enjoys sufficient liquidity and low leverage, which strengthens its balance sheet and supports growth initiatives [13]. Final Assessment - Arch Capital has a robust product portfolio and a solid track record of premium growth, with expectations for continued growth across its business lines [15]. - The company has a VGM Score of B, indicating attractive value, growth, and momentum [17].

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation's stock has recently experienced a pullback due to declining gold prices, but the company maintains a long-term bullish trend supported by strong project execution and financial health [1][2][21]. Stock Performance - Newmont's stock fell below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $50.10, indicating a bearish signal, while it remains above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend [1][2]. - Over the past month, Newmont's shares have decreased by 9.3%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's decline of 11.3% but underperforming the S&P 500's increase of 15.3% [5]. Project Execution and Acquisitions - Newmont is actively investing in growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, which are expected to enhance production capacity and extend mine life [10]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has created a robust portfolio, achieving $500 million in annual run-rate synergies and positioning Newmont favorably in the gold and copper production landscape [11]. Financial Health - Newmont reported a strong liquidity position with $8.8 billion in liquidity, including $4.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and a significant operating cash flow increase of approximately 162% year over year [13]. - The company generated a record free cash flow of $1.2 billion in the first quarter and returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [13]. Gold Price Dynamics - Despite recent declines, gold prices have increased by roughly 22% this year, with Newmont's average realized gold prices rising around 41% year over year to $2,944 per ounce in the first quarter [14][15]. - Factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions are expected to support gold prices, which remain above $3,200 per ounce [15]. Dividend and Valuation - Newmont offers a dividend yield of 2% with a payout ratio of 24%, indicating a sustainable dividend backed by strong cash flows [16]. - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 12.07X, approximately 11% lower than the industry average of 13.57X, making it an attractive investment option [18]. Earnings Estimates - Newmont's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised upward, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate suggesting a year-over-year growth of 12.6% [17][18]. Investment Outlook - Despite recent stock performance challenges, Newmont presents a compelling investment case due to its growth projects, strong financial health, and favorable market conditions for gold [21].

Core Viewpoint - NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) is experiencing a short-term bullish trend, trading above its 50-day simple moving average, despite a recent decline in share price from its 52-week high [1] Valuation and Market Position - NMIH shares are trading at a price-to-book multiple of 1.25X, which is lower than the industry average of 1.52X, the Finance sector's 4.11X, and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's 7.8X, indicating attractive valuation [4] - The company has a market capitalization of $2.90 billion, with an average trading volume of 0.6 million shares over the last three months [6] Performance Metrics - NMIH's shares have gained 10.3% over the past year, lagging behind the industry's growth of 19.8%, the Finance sector's return of 16.8%, and the S&P 500 composite's appreciation of 11.1% [7][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NMIH's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 7.1%, with revenues expected to reach $686.01 million, reflecting a 5.4% improvement [10] - The expected long-term earnings growth rate for NMIH is 6.10%, which is slightly below the industry average of 6.9% [11] Return on Capital - NMIH's return on equity (ROE) for the trailing 12 months was 17.27%, significantly higher than the industry's 7.7%, showcasing efficient use of shareholders' funds [12] Growth Opportunities - NMIH is positioned to benefit from new business opportunities in the growing mortgage insurance market, with expectations of increased production in monthly and single premium policies [13] - The company has a comprehensive reinsurance program to enhance its return profile and manage credit volatility [14] Shareholder Returns - NMIH has engaged in share buybacks, repurchasing a total of $245 million of shares, with $80 million of repurchase capacity remaining [14] - These strategies are expected to help the insurer generate solid mid-teens returns for shareholders [15] Overall Outlook - NMIH is well-positioned for growth due to new primary insurance written, a comprehensive reinsurance program, and favorable growth estimates [16] - The stock has a VGM Score of A, indicating attractive value, growth, and momentum, suggesting it is wise to hold onto this stock [18]

Core Viewpoint - Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) shares are trading at a discount compared to the Zacks Life Insurance industry, with a forward price-to-book value of 1.19X, lower than the industry average of 1.80X and the Finance sector's 4.09X [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - RGA has a market capitalization of $13.64 billion and an average trading volume of 0.4 million shares over the last three months [1] - RGA's shares have lost 1% over the past year, while the industry has grown by 14.3%, the Finance sector by 16.3%, and the S&P 500 by 10% [5][6] - The company has a decent earnings surprise history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 7.85% [9] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RGA's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, with revenues projected at $24.28 billion, reflecting a 6.2% improvement [10] - Earnings have grown by 15.3% over the past five years, outperforming the industry average of 7.8% [11] - The consensus estimates for 2026 earnings per share and revenues suggest increases of 11.4% and 9.4%, respectively, from the 2025 estimates [10] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - RGA's return on invested capital (ROIC) has consistently increased, reaching 6.1% in the trailing 12 months, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.6% [12] - The company has effectively managed capital through share buybacks, dividend payments, and prudent investments, maintaining a free cash flow conversion of over 85% in recent quarters [18][19] Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - RGA is a leader in the traditional U.S. and Latin American markets, with a strong product line and capabilities that contribute to risk diversification [13] - In Canada, RGA is well-positioned with a sizable block of in-force business, anticipating long-term growth in longevity insurance [14] - The company is capitalizing on the growing demand for protection products among the emerging global middle class and aging populations [15] Group 5: Future Outlook - RGA's new business volumes, favorable longevity experience, diversified business model, and effective capital deployment are expected to support long-term growth [20] - The stock has a VGM Score of A, indicating attractive value, growth, and momentum [20] - The recommendation is to hold the stock, given its affordability and potential for future performance [21]