Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Taiwan ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrate market**, particularly in relation to **ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) AI servers** and their suppliers, including **Unimicron**, **NYPCB**, and **Ibiden**. Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Growth Projections - The **2026/27 AI server ABF Total Addressable Market (TAM)** has been raised by **35%/55%**, reflecting a strong demand outlook for ASIC AI servers, with projected shipments of **3.4 million** and **4.7 million** units in **2026E/27E** respectively, compared to **5.6 million** and **7.1 million** for GPU AI chips [1][8] - The **average selling price (ASP)** for ASIC AI substrates is expected to be **US$180/US$220** in **2026E/27E**, while GPU AI substrates are projected at **US$143/US$183** [1][8] - The combined market share for Taiwan's ASIC AI substrate suppliers (Unimicron and NYPCB) is estimated to be **71%/65%/59%** for **2025E/26E/27E**, significantly higher than the **10%/19%/21%** for GPU AI server market share [9] Supplier Performance and Projections - **Unimicron** and **NYPCB** are expected to benefit the most from the improving demand outlook, with revenue contributions from AI servers projected to reach **16%** and **20%** respectively by **2027E**, up from previous estimates of **13%** and **12%** [1][4] - **Ibiden** is also anticipated to gain market share in the ASIC AI server substrate market due to its technology leadership and plans for **40% capacity expansion** from **2025-27** [2] Pricing and Supply Chain Dynamics - Prolonged lead times for high-end ABF substrates are expected due to **T-glass material shortages**, which could lead to higher pricing despite a low equipment utilization rate (UTR) forecast of **75%** for **2H25-1H26E** [3][39] - Price hikes for ABF substrates are anticipated to occur in **late September/early October**, coinciding with quarterly contract negotiations, but may not significantly impact earnings outlook for suppliers in **2H26** [3][40] - The overall ABF substrate market is projected to grow at an **18% CAGR** from **2025-27E**, driven primarily by AI server applications [38] Earnings Revisions and Target Price Adjustments - **Unimicron**'s earnings estimates for **2025E/26E/27E** have been raised by **1%/3%/3%**, reflecting higher expected demand for ASIC AI server substrates [51] - The target price for **Unimicron** has been increased to **NT$116** from **NT$110** [4][55] - **NYPCB**'s earnings estimates have been revised upwards by **96%/67%/32%** for **2025E/26E/27E**, with a new target price of **NT$125** [57][62] Long-term Outlook and Risks - The long-term outlook for high-end ABF substrate suppliers remains positive, driven by the overall AI server demand uptrend, with an **81% CAGR** expected from **2024-27E** [10] - Key risks include slower-than-expected recovery in PC demand, delays in ABF substrate upgrades, and challenges in qualifying new high-end capacities [66] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the potential conflict of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with the companies covered in the research [4] - The analysis suggests that while short-term oversupply may weigh on stock performance, the long-term demand growth for high-end substrates will support earnings [44]