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Oscar(OSCR) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-06 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was reported at $2,900,000,000, representing a 29% year-over-year increase [5][18] - The medical loss ratio (MLR) increased by 12 points year-over-year to 91.1%, primarily due to an overall increase in average market morbidity [5][19] - The SG&A ratio improved by 90 basis points year-over-year to 18.7% [6][21] - The loss from operations was $230,000,000, a decrease of $298,000,000 year-over-year, while the adjusted EBITDA loss was $199,000,000, a decrease of $34,000,000 year-over-year [6][22] - The company reaffirmed its updated 2025 guidance, projecting total revenues between $12,000,000,000 and $12,200,000,000 and a loss from operations between $200,000,000 and $300,000,000 [6][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Membership grew to over 2,000,000, an increase of 28% year-over-year, driven by solid retention and above-market growth during open enrollment [19] - The second quarter MLR was impacted by a $316,000,000 increase in risk adjustment payable for 2025 due to higher ACA marketplace morbidity [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The latest risk adjustment data indicated a meaningful market-wide increase in morbidity in 2025, affecting all carriers with increases in mid to high single digits [7] - The company expects double-digit rate increases in the market for 2026 to address current morbidity pressures [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on managing expenses and optimizing operations through technology and AI-driven efficiencies, aiming to eliminate approximately $60,000,000 in administrative costs for 2026 [10][11] - Strategic acquisitions include an individual market brokerage and a direct enrollment technology platform to enhance capabilities in the consumer marketplace [12][13] - The company is launching a new ICRA product in partnership with Hy Vee Inc., targeting employers and employees in Des Moines, Iowa [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes the individual market will stabilize in 2026 and expects to return to profitability in that year [15][26] - The company is taking corrective actions to ensure a strong position for profitability next year, despite current market challenges [18][26] Other Important Information - The company has a strong capital position with approximately $5,400,000,000 in cash and investments, including $579,000,000 in excess capital [22][90] - The company is reducing its workforce in the second half of 2025 to solidify its profitability position for 2026 [26][85] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on 2025 free cash flow and risk adjustment payable - Management indicated a strong capital position and that the majority of expected losses would be absorbed by excess capital [30] Question: Long-term targets for 2027 - Management reaffirmed the 5% margin target but stated that adjustments may be made after assessing the pricing season [32] Question: Multiyear earnings levers - Management highlighted ongoing opportunities to improve medical costs and administrative efficiencies [38] Question: Potential risk pool deterioration - Management expressed confidence in their current position and noted that they have factored risks into their pricing for 2026 [47] Question: Market stabilization assumptions for 2026 - Management built conservative assumptions into their guidance, expecting to improve margins and return to profitability [51] Question: Membership shifts and retention - Management noted that improved membership retention and lower lapse rates contributed to membership growth [105]