Core Insights - President Trump has a limited timeframe to replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) before health insurance premiums potentially increase significantly for millions of Americans [1][3] - The expiration of pandemic-era subsidies at the end of the year could lead to premiums more than doubling by 2026, affecting 24 million people enrolled in ACA plans [3][6] - Lawmakers are considering various proposals, including extending subsidies, implementing new restrictions, or introducing health savings accounts (HSAs) as alternatives [6][8] Legislative Context - The government shutdown earlier this month was largely centered around the issue of subsidies, with a potential for another shutdown if an agreement is not reached by January 30 [2] - Trump's recent proposal suggests returning funds directly to individuals rather than insurance companies, allowing for personal negotiation of insurance plans [4][6] Financial Implications - If subsidies are not extended, an estimated 2.2 million people could become uninsured by 2024, according to the Congressional Budget Office [3] - The proposed changes could lead to a significant reduction in enrollment, particularly among younger and lower-income individuals, due to the removal of $0 premium plans [7][10] Proposed Alternatives - Senator Rick Scott's proposal would replace premium subsidies with contributions to HSAs, allowing beneficiaries to purchase insurance or pay for services directly [8] - Senator Bill Cassidy's plan would convert expiring subsidies into HSA contributions for healthcare expenses, but not for premiums, maintaining much of the ACA framework [9][10] Expert Opinions - Experts warn that shifting to HSAs may provide more flexibility for healthy individuals but could destabilize the insurance market by driving up premiums for those with higher healthcare needs [10]

Group 1 - President Trump's support for a two-year extension of expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance subsidies has led to a rally in shares of Centene and Oscar Health [1][4] - Wall Street is optimistic that some form of subsidy extension will be approved, despite facing opposition from GOP [1] - The fate of the expiring ACA subsidies remains uncertain following a recent government funding deal [2] Group 2 - Trump's comments regarding diverting federal funds from "money-sucking" health insurers have positively impacted S&P 500 health care stocks [4] - Oscar Health has seen a significant increase in its Relative Strength (RS) rating, jumping to 87 [4] - The health care sector is betting that a deal regarding ACA subsidies will help prevent a government shutdown [4]

Monica Guarez, head of US policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and joins us now. Monica, welcome. Obviously, listen, uh, SNAP food benefits, lack of paychecks, airports, everything else, that's that's all real world impact, but I've got to imagine that Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's clients are asking about this.When or how much will it matter, and where, how are you answering them. I mean, we're seeing it actually start to show up when we're thinking about those concerns, right. Our clients are a ...