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Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-08 15:25
Core Thesis - Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. is viewed as an undervalued investment opportunity, particularly due to its stable cash-generating pain portfolio and growth potential in the ADHD segment [2][5]. Company Overview - As of September 24th, Collegium's shares were trading at $35.16, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 32.92 and 4.87 respectively [1]. - The company has historically faced stigma due to its opioid focus but has successfully commercialized products like Xtampa ER, Belbuca®, Symproic, and Nucynta without heavy R&D spending [2]. Recent Developments - The acquisition of BioDelivery Sciences International in 2022 allowed Collegium to bring Belbuca fully in-house, enhancing its control over commercialization and revenue [3]. - Collegium has entered the ADHD market with Jornay PM, which has over 20% market share in its niche and a projected 5-year CAGR of 5-6% [3]. Management and Strategy - The new management team, led by Vikram Karnani and David Dieter, has a strong track record in scaling niche pharmaceuticals through capital-light acquisitions and disciplined capital allocation [4]. - Collegium's pain portfolio funds growth in ADHD while maintaining exclusivity on key products until the early 2030s, creating high barriers to competition [4]. Financial Metrics - The company is trading at under 5x EV/EBITDA with steady double-digit ROIC, indicating it is undervalued compared to peers [5]. - There is a reasonable upside potential to $60 per share, with a bull scenario projecting $120 [5]. Market Position - Collegium is positioned as an overlooked specialty pharma opportunity with significant risk-adjusted upside, driven by a combination of stable cash flow and growth initiatives [5].