Last week, I updated my view on GE Vernova ( GEV ), which is a key supplier and beneficiary of the increasing load demand stemming from AI/data centers as well as climate and electrification. PartExperience is difficult to learn. After 30 plus years of critically analyzing the nuts and bolts of businesses as diverse as airlines, oil, retail, mining to fintech and ecommerce plus the macro, monetary and political drivers. I continue to immensely enjoy learning and applying my experience to unravel, comprehend ...

Group 1 - The article presents a theory that various factors including Trump Tariff wars, AI/data centers, climate change, OPEC, and the Big Beautiful are driving natural gas prices higher, indicating a potential reconnection with global markets [1] - The author emphasizes the importance of experience in analyzing diverse industries such as airlines, oil, retail, mining, fintech, and ecommerce, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic, monetary, and political drivers [1] - The author reflects on their extensive experience through multiple crises, including the dotcom bubble, 9/11, the great recession, and the Covid-19 pandemic, which provides a strong foundation for understanding various business models and innovations [1]

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a lower-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles rising by 110 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended May 9, compared to analysts' expectations of 111 Bcf [2] - Total natural gas stocks reached 2,255 Bcf, which is 375 Bcf (14.3%) below the 2024 level but 57 Bcf (2.6%) higher than the five-year average [3] - Natural gas futures fell about 12% during the week, ending at $3.343/MMBtu, the lowest in two weeks, due to mild weather leading to subdued demand [4] Company Focus - **Expand Energy (EXE)**: The largest natural gas producer in the U.S. after the Chesapeake-Southwestern merger, with significant assets in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 458.2% year-over-year surge, with an 18.7% increase in estimates over the past 60 days [7][8] - **Coterra Energy (CTRA)**: An independent upstream operator with a focus on natural gas, owning approximately 183,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale. The expected earnings per share growth rate for Coterra is 20.3% over three to five years, compared to the industry's 17.8% [9][10] - **Excelerate Energy (EE)**: Specializes in LNG infrastructure and services, representing 20% of the global Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) fleet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 10.2% year-over-year growth [11][12]