Core View - GE Vernova (GEV) is positioned as a key supplier and beneficiary of the increasing load demand driven by AI/data centers, climate change, and electrification [1] Group 1: Company Insights - GEV has been updated as a significant player in the market due to its role in meeting the rising demand for energy solutions [1] - The company benefits from trends in technology and innovation, particularly in sectors like AI and data centers [1] Group 2: Analyst Experience - The analyst has over 30 years of experience analyzing diverse industries including airlines, oil, retail, mining, fintech, and ecommerce [1] - The analyst's background includes navigating multiple crises, which provides a robust foundation for understanding market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The article presents a theory that various factors including Trump Tariff wars, AI/data centers, climate change, OPEC, and the Big Beautiful are driving natural gas prices higher, indicating a potential reconnection with global markets [1] - The author emphasizes the importance of experience in analyzing diverse industries such as airlines, oil, retail, mining, fintech, and ecommerce, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic, monetary, and political drivers [1] - The author reflects on their extensive experience through multiple crises, including the dotcom bubble, 9/11, the great recession, and the Covid-19 pandemic, which provides a strong foundation for understanding various business models and innovations [1]

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a lower-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles rising by 110 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended May 9, compared to analysts' expectations of 111 Bcf [2] - Total natural gas stocks reached 2,255 Bcf, which is 375 Bcf (14.3%) below the 2024 level but 57 Bcf (2.6%) higher than the five-year average [3] - Natural gas futures fell about 12% during the week, ending at $3.343/MMBtu, the lowest in two weeks, due to mild weather leading to subdued demand [4] Company Focus - **Expand Energy (EXE)**: The largest natural gas producer in the U.S. after the Chesapeake-Southwestern merger, with significant assets in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 458.2% year-over-year surge, with an 18.7% increase in estimates over the past 60 days [7][8] - **Coterra Energy (CTRA)**: An independent upstream operator with a focus on natural gas, owning approximately 183,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale. The expected earnings per share growth rate for Coterra is 20.3% over three to five years, compared to the industry's 17.8% [9][10] - **Excelerate Energy (EE)**: Specializes in LNG infrastructure and services, representing 20% of the global Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) fleet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 10.2% year-over-year growth [11][12]

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a lower-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles rising by 16 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended April 11, compared to analysts' expectations of a 24 Bcf addition [2] - Total natural gas stocks reached 1,846 Bcf, which is 480 Bcf (20.6%) below the 2024 level and 74 Bcf (3.9%) lower than the five-year average [3] - Daily natural gas consumption fell to 103 Bcf from 108.6 Bcf in the previous week, attributed to lower residential and commercial usage due to warmer temperatures [4] Natural Gas Prices - Natural gas prices have declined, settling at $3.249 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking an almost 8% drop and the lowest close since January [5] - The market is experiencing a seasonal lull as heating demand decreases and cooling demand has not yet fully ramped up [5] Production Insights - Natural gas production continues to break records, with daily output in the Lower 48 states hitting an all-time high [6] - Warmer-than-usual weather is expected to keep heating demand soft, while robust LNG export demand may provide long-term support [6] Company Focus - **Expand Energy (EXE)**: The largest natural gas producer in the U.S. post-merger, well-positioned to benefit from increasing demand driven by LNG exports and electrification trends. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share indicates a 475.9% year-over-year surge [8][9] - **Excelerate Energy (EE)**: Specializes in LNG infrastructure and services, representing 20% of the global FSRU fleet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share indicates 15% year-over-year growth [10][11] - **Coterra Energy (CTRA)**: An independent upstream operator with a focus on natural gas, owning 183,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale. The expected earnings per share growth rate for three to five years is 32.2%, compared to the industry's 19.3% [12][13]