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固定收益部市场日报-20260212
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-12 07:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese/HK properties performed strongly overall, especially VNKRLE bonds due to the reported SZ government rescue plan for Vanke. The deflationary pressure in China continued to ease in early 2026, and mild price reflation is expected in 2026, which should improve corporate profitability and support the capital - market performance of materials and cyclical sectors [2][3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the new CHIFEN 7.4 02/13/29 lowered by up to 1.0pt from RO at par. Chinese AMC space was firm, while HK bank T2s BNKEA/NANYAN widened 5 - 6bps, and Chinese TMTs KUAISH/MEITUA widened 2 - 5bps. Higher - beta names FRESHK 26 - 29s/ZHOSHK 28 closed 7 - 13bps wider. EHICAR 27 dropped 2.1pts, and EHICAR 26 closed 0.3pt lower. VNKRLE 27' and 29' surged 8.0 - 8.8pts on the SZ government rescue plan report. LNGFOR 27 - 32s/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 edged 0.1 - 0.4pt higher. Seazen Group raised HKD472.3mn (cUSD60.4mn) through a private share placement. LASUDE 26 rose 1.5pts, NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex gained 0.2 - 0.9pt, and FAEACO 12.814 Perp closed 0.8pt higher. In SE Asian space, PTTGC 31 - 52s widened 1 - 5bps, PTTGC Perps leaked 0.1 - 0.2pt, VLLPM 27 - 29 were down 1.0 - 1.8pts, and SMCGL Perps were 0.1pt higher. In KR space, POHANG/SKBTAM/HYNMTR/LGENSO stabilized. In JP space, there were selling flows on 10yr bank papers, Japanese insurance subs edged 0.1pt firmer, and Yankee AT1s leaked 0.1 - 0.3pt. In the Middle East, BSFRs were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher, and long - end KSAs traded up to 0.4pt higher [2]. - This morning, MEITUA/KUAISH recovered to 3 - 5bps tighter. There was better selling on FRESHKs, FAEACO 12.814 Perp gained 1.6pts higher, EHICAR 26 dropped 2.3pts, and ACPM 4.85 Perp/HYSAN 4.85 Perp were 0.6 - 0.8pt lower. VNKRLE 27' and 29' edged 0.1 - 0.2pt higher after yesterday's jump [3]. - In the LGFV space, there was deployment demand from institutions, lifting offers and driving yields tighter. Non - LGFV CNH papers remained afloat due to cross - border account demand [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 | 43.4 | 8.8 | EHICAR 12 09/26/27 | 53.3 | - 2.1 | | VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 | 41.5 | 8.0 | VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 | 51.9 | - 1.8 | | TTMTIN 4.35 06/09/26 | 99.4 | 1.9 | NICAU 9 09/30/30 | 103.4 | - 1.2 | | LASUDE 5 07/28/26 | 78.4 | 1.5 | HAOHUA 5 1/2 03/14/48 | 99.9 | - 1.0 | | NWDEVL 10.131 PERP | 80.9 | 0.9 | VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 | 41.5 | - 1.0 | [5] Marco News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (-0.00%), Dow (-0.13%), and Nasdaq (-0.16%) were lower. The US Jan'26 Nonfarm Payrolls were +130k (higher than the market expectation of +66k), the Unemployment Rate was 4.3% (lower than the forecast of 4.4%), the Average Hourly Earnings in Jan'26 was +0.4% mom (a touch higher than the forecast of +0.3%), and the Crude Oil Inventories was +8.53mn (higher than the market expectation of -0.2mn). UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.52%/3.75%/4.18%/4.82% [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - VNKRLE 27' and 29' jumped 8.0 - 8.8pts yesterday and edged 0.1 - 0.2pt higher this morning on the media reports of the SZ government's RMB80bn rescue plan for Vanke, including a RMB20bn share placement. Whether the equity injection is sufficient is under discussion, and the new share issue for a loss - making company needs special regulatory approval. The rescue plan is in line with the view that the central government doesn't want another high - profile default in the property sector. The SZ government, through SZ Metro, has been incentivized to support Vanke's refinancing and maturity extension [7]. - In late Jan'26, Vanke secured consents on onshore bonds. SZ Metro provided a 3 - year loan of up to RMB2.4bn to Vanke. Fitch upgraded China Vanke to CC from RD and affirmed Vanke HK's CC rating [8]. - Vanke can turn to alternative funding channels like long - term operating loans or CBICL - guaranteed bonds secured by IPs. As of Jun'25, the book value of Vanke's IPs was cRMB152bn, and c48% of IPs remained unencumbered, which could secure additional financing of cRMB36bn. The total o/s onshore and offshore bonds of Vanke is cRMB27bn [9][10]. - There are hold recommendations on VNKRLEs. The total outstanding amount of Vanke's USD bonds is USD1.3bn, and the next offshore maturity is VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 in Nov'27. Estimated NPVs for VNKRLEs are low - 60 to high - 70 and high - 50 to low - 70, respectively [11]. China Economy - China's deflationary pressure continued to ease in early 2026. CPI slowed to 0.2% YoY in Jan due to a high base effect and volatile food pricing. Core inflation remained robust driven by durable goods, tourism, and jewellery prices. PPI beat market expectation as price relation in upstream sectors passed through, while PPI of consumer goods remained subdued. Mild price reflation is expected in 2026, and CPI and PPI are expected to reflate from 0.1% and - 2.6% in 2025 to 0.9% and 0.5% in 2026. Further demand - side policies are expected to address the imbalance [12]. - Food price dynamics and base effects drove the shift in headline CPI. CPI YoY moderated to 0.2% in Jan from 0.8% in Dec, slightly below the market expectation. Sequentially, CPI remained flat at 0.2% MoM. Food prices showed weaker - than - normal seasonality, pork prices had 1.2% MoM growth, fresh vegetable prices dropped - 4.8% MoM, and vehicle fuel prices declined 1.2% MoM. Headline CPI is expected to rebound to 1.1% in Feb [13]. - Core CPI remained robust as durable goods price reflated. Core inflation edged down to 0.8% YoY in Jan from 1.2% in Dec due to the base effect, while its MoM expanded to 0.3%. Durable goods saw notable price reflation, other supplies and services including gold jewellery surged 2.7% MoM, service price growth edged up to 0.2% MoM, medical services continued reflation, and housing rent dropped 0.1% MoM [14]. - PPI sustained its recovery momentum. The YoY contraction of PPI narrowed to - 1.4% in Jan from - 1.9% in Dec, beating market expectations. The MoM growth reached 0.4%, the highest in 28 months. The extraction sector dropped 1.7% MoM, raw materials and processing sectors rose 0.7% and 0.5% MoM, AI - related and anti - involution sectors saw price increases, while downstream sectors remained subdued [15][16]. Offshore Asia New Issues - There were no offshore Asia new issues priced or in the pipeline today [19][20]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, 72 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB50bn. Month - to - date, 858 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB690bn, a 615.7% yoy increase. Sales of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China slumped 18.9% yoy in Jan'26. First Pacific's Meralco will spend USD4.65bn on network upgrades and service expansion. Fosun - owned insurer weighs Lisbon listing at more than USD3.6bn valuation [21]. Company - Specific News - Seazen Group raised HKD472.3mn (cUSD60.4mn) through a private share placement to help repay FTLNHD 4.5 05/02/26 [26]. - Medco Energi Internasional's arm was awarded the operatorship of Cendramas offshore field in Malaysia by Petronas [26]. - Moody's affirmed Meituan's Baa1 ratings and revised outlook to negative from stable due to competition in the food delivery business [26]. - Petron Malaysian unit flagged a potential financial hit due to tropical storm Senyar [26]. - Petronas launched a bidding round for nine exploration blocks across Malaysia [26]. - Samsung Heavy won a USD321mn deal to build two containerships for an African buyer [26]. - AIIB will provide up to USD250mn on - lending facility to Shriram Finance [26]. - Santos flagged a USD137mn impairment loss in 2025 [26]. - West China Cement settled tender offer for WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26, with USD51.976mn remaining outstanding [26].