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半导体封装行业更新 - 我们上调中期增长预测-Semiconductor packaging industry update - We raise medium-term growth forecasts
2025-10-31 00:59
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Packaging Industry - **Company**: Japan Electronic Parts (Ibiden) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Medium-Term Growth Forecasts**: The company has raised its medium-term growth forecasts, anticipating increased capital expenditures (capex) in AI data centers and a rise in demand for Intel's EMIB-T technology [1][1][1] 2. **Shipment Trends**: Shipments of Blackwell packages for Nvidia's processors have ramped up, with average monthly shipment value increasing from ¥18.2 billion in April-June to ¥19.2 billion in July-August. However, the price per m² has decreased from ¥1 million to ¥970,000 [1][1][1] 3. **Market Dynamics**: There is a noted decline in the shipment weighting of GPU packages, while CPU packages for commodity servers are seeing an increase. This shift indicates changing market demands [1][1][1] 4. **New Production Facility**: Ibiden's new Ono plant, completed in October, is set to produce Nvidia's next-generation Rubin processors, although full-scale production is expected to begin in April 2026. In the interim, the plant will focus on Blackwell products [1][1][1] 5. **Investment in AI Data Centers**: The company expects a significant increase in investment in AI data centers, which will positively impact its business with Intel [1][1][1] Additional Important Insights 1. **Capex Plans in AI Data Centers**: US companies, particularly OpenAI, are planning substantial capex for AI data centers, which has led to share price increases for related firms. However, there are concerns about potential excess capacity if cutting-edge models become smaller due to quantization or if cash flow improvements are demanded by investors [2][2][2] 2. **Intel's Custom ASIC Design**: Intel is entering the custom ASIC design business, leveraging advanced packaging technologies like EMIB, EMIB-T, and Foveros. The EMIB-T technology is viewed as superior to CoWoS-L in terms of cost and size, indicating a potential shift in packaging technology preferences [3][3][3] Conclusion The semiconductor packaging industry is experiencing significant changes driven by advancements in AI technology and shifting market demands. Companies like Ibiden are poised to benefit from increased investments in AI data centers and evolving packaging technologies.