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Trump Says Credit Card Swipe Fees Are ‘Out of Control.’ What Does That Mean for Visa Stock?
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-17 13:00
Core Viewpoint - Visa is facing regulatory pressures that could impact its business model, particularly concerning swipe fees, but its strong fundamentals and growth prospects continue to attract positive analyst sentiment. Financial Performance - Visa reported fiscal 2025 GAAP net income of $20.1 billion ($10.20 per share) and non-GAAP net income of $22.5 billion ($11.47 per share), with net revenue of $40 billion, reflecting an 11% to 12% increase on a constant-currency basis [7] - In fiscal Q4, Visa achieved a GAAP profit of $5.1 billion ($2.62 per share) and a non-GAAP profit of $5.8 billion ($2.98 per share) on $10.7 billion of revenue, also up approximately 11% to 12% [7] - The company generated $6.1 billion in buybacks and dividends in the quarter, totaling $22.8 billion for the full year, supporting its premium valuation [7] Market Position and Valuation - Visa trades at about 26.8x forward earnings, significantly higher than the sector average of 11.5x, indicating its strong market position and growth outlook [2] - Despite a 3.6% increase over the past 52 weeks, Visa's stock is down approximately 6.3% year-to-date due to regulatory concerns [2] Regulatory Environment - The endorsement of the "Credit Card Competition Act" by President Trump has introduced new regulatory risks, potentially affecting Visa's swipe fee structure [6] - The proposed legislation could force large banks to offer merchants lower-cost routing options, challenging Visa's economic model [4] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts expect Visa's earnings for the upcoming quarter to be $3.14 per share, representing a 14.18% year-over-year growth [12] - Major firms like Bank of America and HSBC have upgraded Visa's stock to "Buy," citing strong fundamentals and growth potential despite regulatory risks [13][14] - The consensus among analysts is a "Strong Buy" rating, with a mean price target of $403.09, suggesting a potential upside of about 22.5% from current levels [14] Strategic Initiatives - Visa is collaborating with Fiserv to enhance its payment solutions, integrating AI-driven commerce capabilities to improve transaction processes for merchants [8][9] - The company is also expanding its real-time payment capabilities through partnerships like Lumanu, targeting creator and contractor payouts globally [11]