Core Thesis - Owens Corning is positioned to benefit from the aging housing market and growth in its core markets, with strong fundamentals and a cheap stock valuation [4][5][10] Industry Trends - The typical home in the U.S. reached a record age of 36 years in 2024, up from 27 years in 2012, due to a lack of new supply and better affordability of older homes [5][6] - The U.S. construction industry has seen a significant decline in new home builds, with only 9% of homes built in the 2010s, the lowest share since the 1940s [6] Company Segments - Owens Corning has three reportable business segments: Roofing (44% of revenue), Insulation (35%), and Doors (21%) as of 1Q25 [11][10] - Each of these segments is forecasted to grow over the next decade, providing long-term opportunities for the company [10][19] Financial Performance - Since 2014, Owens Corning has achieved an 8% annual revenue growth and a 17% annual growth in net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) [12][13] - The NOPAT margin improved from 6% in 2014 to 14% in the trailing twelve months (TTM), with return on invested capital (ROIC) increasing from 4% to 11% [13][17] Shareholder Returns - The company has paid $898 million in cumulative dividends since 2019, increasing its quarterly dividend from $0.22/share in 1Q19 to $0.69/share in 1Q25, resulting in a current yield of 1.9% [18] - Owens Corning repurchased $2.8 billion worth of shares from 2019 to 1Q25, with a new authorization for 12 million shares in May 2025 [20][21] Cash Flow Generation - From 2019 to 2023, Owens Corning generated $4.6 billion in free cash flow (FCF), equating to 25% of the company's enterprise value [22] - Despite a negative FCF of -$3.7 billion in 2Q24 due to an acquisition, the company has since reported positive and rising FCF in subsequent quarters [23] Market Challenges - Current economic uncertainty is impacting consumer spending, particularly in home purchases, with homes selling at the slowest pace in six years [26] - A significant number of homes (worth $698 billion) are currently for sale, representing a 20% increase from the previous year [26] Valuation Insights - At a current price of $140/share, the market expects Owens Corning's profits to decline by 10% from TTM levels, despite historical growth rates of 19% compounded annually over the last five years [29][30] - If NOPAT grows at a slower rate of 2% annually through 2034, the stock could be worth $171/share, indicating a potential upside of 22% [31]