Agricultural Production Forecast
Search documents
油脂油料早报-20260326
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 01:31
Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. is expected to expand its soybean planting area in 2026, while soybean inventory at the beginning of Q1 2026 may reach a six - year high. Brazil is likely to have a bountiful soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026, increased significantly compared to the previous month [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 U.S. Crop Information - The average forecast of analysts is that the U.S. soybean planting area in 2026 will reach 85.549 million acres, higher than 81.215 million acres last year and the 85 million acres predicted by the USDA Outlook Forum. The expected corn planting area in 2026 is 94.371 million acres, lower than in 2025 but slightly higher than the Outlook Forum's prediction [1] - The average analyst expectation is that the U.S. soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, will be 2.063 billion bushels, the highest in six years and an 8% increase from the same period in 2025 [1] - From the week ending March 19, 2026, U.S. soybean export sales are expected to increase by 20 - 60 tons, with 20 - 50 tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 10 tons for the 2026 - 27 season. U.S. soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 15 - 40 tons, and soybean oil export sales are expected to range from a net decrease of 2 tons to a net increase of 2.4 tons [1] 3.2 Brazilian Crop Information - Agroconsult reported that Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 184.7 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, a 0.9% increase from the early - March forecast. The company adjusted the planting area to 49.1 million hectares and the average national yield to 62.7 bags per hectare. South Rio Grande do Sul is the main area with reduced production, while most other major producing states are performing well [1] 3.3 Malaysian Palm Oil Information - According to ITS, Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026, were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, exports were 1,389,549 tons, a 50.6% increase from the same period last month [1] 3.4 Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products from March 19 - 25, 2026, are provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu. For example, on March 19, 2026, the soybean meal price in Jiangsu was 3300, and on March 25, it dropped to 3190 [1][2]
油脂油料早报-20260303
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-03 02:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple institutions have revised down their forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production due to adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul, but the latest data still indicates a potential record - high output [1] - U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending February 26, 2026, was better than expected, and the January 2026 soybean crushing volume also exceeded industry analysts' estimates [1] - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production and export volume decreased, while Indonesia's palm oil export volume in January 2026 increased significantly year - on - year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending February 26, 2026, was 1,137,582 tons, better than the market forecast of 700,000 - 1,000,000 tons. The volume to China was 734,698 tons, accounting for 64.58% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 26,182,723 tons, compared with 37,600,985 tons in the same period last year [1] - The U.S. January 2026 soybean crushing volume was 6.84 million short tons (227.8 million bushels), higher than the industry analysts' estimate of 6.789 million short tons [1] - StoneX lowered its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 177.8 million tons, a 2.1% reduction from the previous forecast of 181.6 million tons [1] - AgRural also lowered its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 178 million tons from the previous 181 million tons. As of last Thursday, 39% of the soybean crop has been harvested, 9 percentage points higher than the previous week but lower than 50% in the same period last year [1] - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in February 2026 decreased by 19.35% month - on - month, with a 19.20% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.03% decrease in oil extraction rate [1] - SGS data indicates that Malaysia's palm oil exports in February 2026 decreased by 9.76% month - on - month, while AmSpec data shows a 25.5% decrease [1] - Indonesia's palm oil exports in January 2026 were 2.24 million tons, a 77.07% year - on - year increase, with an export value of $2.29 billion [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from February 24 to March 2, 2026, are presented in a table [4] Protein Meal Basis No specific content provided, only the topic is mentioned [5] Fat Basis No specific content provided, only the topic is mentioned [8] Fat and Oil Futures Spread No specific content provided, only the topic is mentioned [10]
油脂油料早报-20251117
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 02:12
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest information on the supply and demand of major oilseeds and oils in the 2025/26 period, including data on soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, as well as the expected trend of U.S. soybean crushing volume and inventory [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual U.S. Soybean Information - The estimated production for the 2025/26 U.S. soybean season is 4.253 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 4.301 billion bushels - The estimated planting area is 81.1 million acres, the same as the September estimate - The estimated harvested area is 80.3 million acres, consistent with the September estimate - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, down from the September estimate of 53.5 bushels - The estimated export volume is 1.635 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 1.685 billion bushels - The estimated ending stocks are 290 million bushels, down from the September estimate of 300 million bushels [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production is 175 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 112.5 million tons, up from the September estimate of 112 million tons - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, up from the September estimate of 6 million tons - China's estimated soybean imports are 112 million tons, the same as the September estimate - Global estimated soybean production is 421.75 million tons, down from the September estimate of 425.87 million tons, and the estimated ending stocks are 121.99 million tons, down from the September estimate of 123.99 million tons [1] U.S. October Soybean Crushing Volume - The estimated U.S. soybean crushing volume in October is 209.522 million bushels, an increase of 5.9% from September's 197.863 million bushels and 4.8% from October 2024's 199.943 million bushels, setting a new record high [1] U.S. October Soybean Oil Inventory - The estimated U.S. soybean oil inventory in October is 1.257 billion pounds, an increase of 1.1% from the end - of - September inventory of 1.243 billion pounds and 17.0% from October 2024's 1.074 billion pounds [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Rapeseed Information - Global estimated rapeseed production is 92.273 million tons, an increase of 6.274 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 11.336 million tons, an increase of 1.504 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed oil production is 35.009 million tons, an increase of 0.873 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 3.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed meal production is 50.005 million tons, an increase of 0.949 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 1.541 million tons, an increase of 0.153 million tons year - on - year - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume is 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.631 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed meal export volume is 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.299 million tons year - on - year [1] Malaysia Palm Oil Export - Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from November 1 - 15 is 728,995 tons, a decrease of 15.5% compared to the same period last month [1] Indonesia Palm Oil Production - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to increase by 3 - 4%, lower than this year's estimated growth rate of 4 - 7%, and the 2025 palm oil export is expected to increase by 6 - 7% [1] Spot Prices - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 10 - 14, 2025 [2]