Corn and soybean futures rose in Chicago as stronger-than-expected demand for exports overshadowed forecasts for higher yields https://t.co/cb1QZZTL4u ...

美国大豆协会周二致特朗普的信函写道：“大豆种植户正面临巨大的财务压力。价格持续下跌，与此同时，我们的农民却在投入和设备上花费巨额资金。美国大豆种植户无法承受与我们最大客户之间长期的贸易争端。”协会敦促特朗普与中国达成购买美豆的贸易协议，并警告称，若中国继续绕开美国大豆，将对美国大豆种植业带来严重的经济后果。根据美国大豆协会的数据，中国在2023-2024年购买了54%的美国出口大豆，价值132亿美元，如今转向巴西大豆可能会让美国豆农损失数十亿美元。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 海关数据周日发布的数据显示，中国6月从巴西进口了1062万吨大豆，占总进口量86.6%，较上年同期（972万吨）增长了9.2%。从美国进口158万吨大豆，占总进口量12.9%，较去年同期（131万吨）增加20.6%。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the unprecedented challenges faced by U.S. soybean farmers due to climate disasters, rising costs, and the impact of U.S. government tariff policies leading to a significant decline in international demand, particularly from China [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean is a crucial agricultural product, with China being its largest buyer, importing approximately 221.3 million tons from the U.S. in 2024, compared to less than 6 million tons from Mexico, the second-largest market [1] - Since the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration in 2017, China has significantly reduced its purchases of U.S. soybeans, resulting in a drastic drop in U.S. soybean exports, which fell to a 20-year low of only 3 million tons sold as of July 24 [1][2] Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - Brazil has secured significant soybean supplies for September and October, totaling 800 million tons and 400 million tons respectively, which constitutes nearly half of China's expected demand for those months, further squeezing U.S. export opportunities [2] - The U.S. soybean market typically sees sales begin on October 1, but the current tariff situation has led to China not purchasing any U.S. soybeans this year, severely impacting U.S. farmers [2] Group 3: Agricultural Conditions - U.S. soybean and corn crops are suffering from adverse weather conditions, including excessive rainfall leading to pest infestations and crop diseases, which have delayed planting and reduced yield potential [4][5] - Farmers are incurring additional costs to manage these challenges, such as purchasing propane to dry corn, further straining their financial situation [5] Group 4: Economic Pressures - The prices of U.S. agricultural products have been declining over the past three years due to factors like reduced cattle herds and lower ethanol production, while costs for seeds, fertilizers, land, and machinery continue to rise [5] - The economic conditions for U.S. agriculture are reportedly more challenging than during the previous trade war period under the Trump administration [5] Group 5: Government Response - The Trump administration has proposed $60 billion in subsidies over the next decade to support farmers, but this has faced criticism for benefiting large producers over family farms and for not adequately addressing the immediate export challenges [7] - Despite calls for increased soybean purchases from China, market analysts question the feasibility of such transactions given China's established supply chain with Brazil [6][7]

Soybean prices fell back below $10 a bushel, as traders saw news of an extended US-China trade truce as likely delaying major grain-purchasing deals between the nations until late this year https://t.co/QVCmFixo8H ...

American farmers have dramatically reduced the environmental impact of soybean production per bushel over the last decades, solidifying the US soybean industry as a leader in sustainable agricultural production. Since 1980, US producers have cut land use by an average of 47%, water consumption by 61% and energy use by 45% per bushel of soybeans grown nationally. Additionally, greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by 42% and soil erosion has been reduced by 35%.Central to this progress is the US soy sustai ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Commodity Market Positioning & Flows Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global commodities market, highlighting recent trends in commodity flows and investor positioning as of August 4, 2025 Key Points Global Commodity Market Trends - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest decreased by **3.4% week-over-week (WOW)**, amounting to a decline of **$52 billion**, bringing the total to **$1.48 trillion** [3][9][12] - This decline marks the largest drop in five weeks, influenced by significant outflows in metals and energy markets, particularly crude oil, copper, gold, and natural gas [3][10] Investor Positioning - The net investor position across global commodity futures markets fell by **6.9% WOW**, totaling **$137 billion** [3][15] - Precious metals saw a decrease in net length by **$13.4 billion**, while base metals increased by **15% WOW** to **$24.5 billion** [3][15] - Agricultural markets experienced a **15% decrease** in net positioning, while energy markets saw a **43% increase** in net length [3][15] Commodity-Specific Insights - **Energy Markets**: Open interest value decreased by **$12 billion WOW** to **$642 billion**, primarily due to outflows from crude oil and petroleum products [5][9] - **Precious Metals**: Open interest dropped by **4% WOW** to **$245 billion**, with significant outflows in gold and silver [5][27] - **Base Metals**: Open interest plunged by **9% WOW** to **$169 billion**, heavily impacted by copper market outflows [5][26] - **Agricultural Markets**: Open interest decreased by **2% WOW** to **$321 billion**, driven by weaker prices in soybean and cotton markets [5][29] Tariff and Policy Impacts - The U.S. Administration's recent tariff policies, including a **50% tariff on semi-finished copper products**, have contributed to market volatility and price declines [3][5] - The anticipated continuation of a **90-day pause on U.S.-China tariffs** is expected to influence market sentiment positively [3] Inventory Levels - The Global Commodities Inventory Monitor (GCIM) indicated a slight decline in inventory availability to **59.13 days-of-use**, the lowest for July in the series [3][4][55] - Ex-China inventory availability increased to **50.7 days-of-use**, reflecting rising visible inventories of copper and aluminum [3][4] Price Momentum - Price momentum across commodities was mixed, with sharp decreases in base metals and agricultural commodities, while some energy prices showed resilience [6][10] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is cautious, with heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and global economic growth [6][10] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments, as they significantly impact commodity flows and investor behavior [3][6][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan report on commodity market positioning and flows, providing a comprehensive overview of current trends and investor sentiment in the commodities sector.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas "rate - cut trading" is heating up, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in September reaching 94%. The dollar index has fallen, and the prices of gold, silver, and copper have rebounded, while OPEC+ production increases have pressured oil prices down. In China, the economy is in a weak recovery, the A - share market has risen with reduced trading volume, and the bond market has shown differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals, copper, and nickel are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts; the prices of aluminum, lead, tin, and industrial silicon face downward pressure due to factors such as inventory increases and weak demand; the price of lithium carbonate is in a state of multi - factor entanglement and fluctuates; the price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors and may fluctuate; the prices of steel products and iron ore are expected to fluctuate; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate upward, and the price of palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][6][8][11][13][15][16][19][21][22][23][25] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Variety Views Macro - Overseas: Fed official Daly signaled a dovish stance. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September reached 94%, and the market expected three rate cuts this year. The dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.18%, and the U.S. stock market rebounded nearly 2%. The prices of gold, silver, and copper rebounded, while oil prices fell due to OPEC+ production increases. The reciprocal tariff 2.0 game is in the second half [2]. - Domestic: The economy is in a weak recovery. The A - share market rose with reduced trading volume, and the bond market showed differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - After the U.S. non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September soared, boosting precious metal prices. Trump's tariff increase measures also increased inflation expectations and risk aversion, further boosting the price of gold. The short - term focus is on the resistance of the international gold price at $3450 per ounce, and the silver price may rebound more strongly after a significant correction [4][5]. Copper - Fed official Daly's dovish remarks and Trump's possible appointment of new Fed officials have increased the expectation of rate cuts, boosting market risk appetite and weakening the dollar index, which is beneficial to the metal market. The Skouries copper - gold project in Greece is expected to start production in early 2026, with an annual copper output of about 30,000 tons. It is expected that the Shanghai copper price will enter a rebound rhythm [6][7]. Aluminum - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the U.S. for 6 months. Trump adjusted the tariff rates, and the average U.S. tariff reached 18.3%. The social inventory of aluminum continued to increase this week, and the spot market transaction premium continued to decline slightly. Macro and fundamental pressures have increased, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust [8]. Alumina - The futures price of alumina rose slightly. The futures spread structure is conducive to long - position roll - over, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The fundamental situation shows that the warehouse receipt inventory has not increased, the spot price is firm, and consumption is stable. It is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate [9]. Zinc - The EU's suspension of trade counter - measures against the U.S. and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September have improved market risk appetite, and the zinc price has moved up slightly. However, the inventory continues to increase slightly, and the supply - demand pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Lead - The lead price has fallen significantly, and the downstream consumption improvement is insufficient. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead is expected to recover, and the lead price will maintain a weak - side shock [11]. Tin - The operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises has recovered, but the supply of tin ore and waste tin is still tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has risen above 10,000 tons. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon continued to decline. The supply is still shrinking, and the demand in the photovoltaic market is weak. The social inventory has increased, and the spot market price has been pressured. It is expected that the futures price will continue to adjust in the short term [14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. The supply side was affected by the suspension of a lithium mine project in Nigeria and the successful commissioning of a lithium carbonate project in Sichuan. The policy is in a state of correction, and the market fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate [16][17]. Nickel - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the dollar index has fallen, pushing up the nickel price. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron has increased, but the cost pressure remains. The spot trading of pure nickel is okay. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate under the influence of repeated macro - expectations [18]. Crude Oil - U.S. economic data is lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Geopolitical factors focus on U.S. sanctions against Russia, with the deadline on August 8th. If sanctions are implemented, oil prices may rise; otherwise, they may give back previous gains. In the short term, the oil market outlook is unclear, and it is advisable to wait and see [19]. Steel Products - The futures prices of steel products fluctuated. The fifth round of coke price increases was fully implemented. The production of five major steel products remained stable, the apparent demand weakened significantly, and the inventory increased significantly. With the approaching of the military parade production restrictions in the north in mid - August, the supply contraction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded. Overseas shipments decreased this week, while arrivals increased, and supply remained stable. The daily average pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans is 69%, at a relatively high level in the same period. The future precipitation in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is slightly lower than the average, with limited short - term impact. The domestic soybean purchase rhythm in the fourth quarter is slow, and the tight supply expectation may intensify. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate upward [23][24]. Palm Oil - The market expects the inventory of Malaysian palm oil to increase in July. India's palm oil imports in July decreased, while soybean oil imports increased. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the palm oil price may fluctuate and adjust [25][27] 2. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on August 4th, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, steel products, iron ore, etc. [28] 3. Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals from August 1st to August 4th, including futures prices, spot prices, inventory levels, and basis [29][30][31]

A unit Chinese state-owned conglomerate Citic will develop large-scale soybean and corn farms in Angola, as the world’s second-largest economy seeks to secure long-term supply amid a trade war with the US https://t.co/eVlpsXNuxo ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with canola meal futures rising while other oil futures decline as of June 30, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Price Movements - Canola meal futures increased by 1.14% to 2572.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 0.43% to 9421.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures fell by 0.69% to 8308.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures dropped by 0.32% to 7976.00 CNY/ton [1][2]. Futures Market Data - Soybean oil opened at 7994.00 CNY, closing at 8002.00 CNY - Palm oil opened at 8366.00 CNY, closing at 8366.00 CNY - Canola oil opened and closed at 9466.00 CNY - Soybean meal opened at 2942.00 CNY, closing at 2938.00 CNY - Canola meal opened at 2558.00 CNY, closing at 2543.00 CNY [2]. Warehouse Receipt Data - Soybean oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 18882 lots - Palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 lots to 470 lots - Canola oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 300 lots - Soybean meal warehouse receipts rose by 9610 lots to 35561 lots - Canola meal warehouse receipts decreased by 1141 lots to 21544 lots [3]. Basis and Spot Prices - Canola meal spot price is 2475 CNY, with a futures price of 2509 CNY, resulting in a basis of -68 CNY and a basis rate of -2.75% - Palm oil spot price is 8586 CNY, with a futures price of 8366 CNY, resulting in a basis of 220 CNY and a basis rate of 2.56% - Soybean one spot price is 4295 CNY, with a futures price of 4144 CNY, resulting in a basis of 151 CNY and a basis rate of 3.52% - Soybean meal spot price is 2906 CNY, with a futures price of 2938 CNY, resulting in a basis of -32 CNY and a basis rate of -1.10% - Soybean oil spot price is 8254 CNY, with a futures price of 8002 CNY, resulting in a basis of 252 CNY and a basis rate of 3.05% [4].

Group 1: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a seasonal demand window, with daily consumption at 4.85 million tons as of June 5, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.5% [1] - The inventory available for use is at 24.4 days, down by 1.6 days week-on-week, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is at 609 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.3% [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a weak peak season due to increased rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, which could enhance hydropower output [1][12] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism meeting from June 8 to 13 is crucial for assessing future trade dynamics, particularly regarding the 10% baseline tariff and semiconductor export restrictions [2][8] - The sensitivity of the commodity market to these discussions is high, especially for shipping and crude oil sectors [2][8] - The potential for a thaw in U.S.-China relations could lead to a rebound in previously declining commodities such as energy and chemicals [8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9][10] - Wage growth is at 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer strength, but the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to downward revisions of previous employment data [9][10] - The interplay between rising import prices and wage growth may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility, impacting both equity and commodity markets [10][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is witnessing independent pricing dynamics, with pork prices exceeding 14 RMB/kg and Brazilian soybean prices rebounding [3][16] - The soybean market is currently in a critical growth season, with no immediate weather threats in the U.S. Midwest, suggesting limited upward pressure on prices [16] - The recent performance of soybean meal is driven by rising CNF prices from Brazil, supported by speculative buying from domestic oil mills [16] Group 5: Precious Metals - Silver is positioned for potential gains due to its dual industrial and monetary attributes, with supply constraints and demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [3] - The gold-silver ratio may continue to improve, but fiscal risks remain unresolved, keeping gold as a primary safe haven [3]