油 脂 基 差 ： 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/04/01 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 美国2026年3月1日当季大豆库存为21.04803亿蒲式耳 USDA周二公布的季度谷物库存报告显示，美国2026年3月1日当季大豆库存为21.04803亿蒲式耳，分析师预估为 20.67亿蒲式耳。截至2025年3月1日库存为19.10924亿蒲式耳。 数据显示，3月1日美国农场内大豆库存为9亿蒲式耳，农场外库存为12.04803亿蒲式耳。 美国2026年大豆种植面积预估为8,470万英亩，低于预期 USDA周二公布的种植意向报告显示，美国2026年大豆种植面积预估为8，470.0万英亩，市场预期为8,554.9万英 亩。2025年实际种植面积为8,121.5万英亩。 Anec:巴西3月大豆出口量料为1,586万吨 Anec公布的数据显示，巴西3月大豆出口量估计为1,586万吨，略低于上周预测的1,587万吨。巴西3月豆粕出口量估 计为224万吨，亦低于上周预测的244万吨。 分析师预计美国2月大豆压榨量为2.143亿蒲式耳，日均压榨量或创纪录 在USDA周三发布的月度油 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The USDA grain market report highlights significant upcoming reports on planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks, with concerns over fertilizer prices potentially leading to reduced U.S. corn planted acres this year [1] - Analysts predict U.S. planted corn acres to be approximately 94.481 million, with expectations for higher U.S. corn stockpiles as of March 1 compared to the previous year [2] - U.S. planted soybean acres are estimated at 85.463 million, with traders also anticipating increased soybean stockpiles as of March 1 relative to last year [2] - The average U.S. all wheat acres is projected at 44.605 million, with expectations for higher wheat stockpiles as of March 1 compared to the same time last year [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - May corn futures experienced a slight decline of 3.5 cents last week, but a price uptrend remains intact, suggesting continued interest from technically oriented traders [3] - Increased risk aversion in the marketplace, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has limited buying interest in grain markets, alongside a stronger U.S. dollar index near a 10-month high [3] - The grain markets are expected to remain sensitive to fluctuations in crude oil prices as geopolitical events unfold [3] Group 3: Biofuels Legislation Impact - The EPA's recent waiver allowing expanded sales of E15 gasoline is seen as a positive development for ethanol demand, although market reactions have been muted due to previous similar waivers and ongoing legislative standstill regarding year-round E15 [5] - Further updates on U.S. biofuels policy are anticipated soon, which could influence market dynamics [5] Group 4: Soybean Market Challenges - May soybean futures fell by 2 cents last week, facing technical selling pressure and forming a classic bear flag pattern on daily bar charts for both May and July futures [6]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. is expected to expand its soybean planting area in 2026, while soybean inventory at the beginning of Q1 2026 may reach a six - year high. Brazil is likely to have a bountiful soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026, increased significantly compared to the previous month [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 U.S. Crop Information - The average forecast of analysts is that the U.S. soybean planting area in 2026 will reach 85.549 million acres, higher than 81.215 million acres last year and the 85 million acres predicted by the USDA Outlook Forum. The expected corn planting area in 2026 is 94.371 million acres, lower than in 2025 but slightly higher than the Outlook Forum's prediction [1] - The average analyst expectation is that the U.S. soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, will be 2.063 billion bushels, the highest in six years and an 8% increase from the same period in 2025 [1] - From the week ending March 19, 2026, U.S. soybean export sales are expected to increase by 20 - 60 tons, with 20 - 50 tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 - 10 tons for the 2026 - 27 season. U.S. soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 15 - 40 tons, and soybean oil export sales are expected to range from a net decrease of 2 tons to a net increase of 2.4 tons [1] 3.2 Brazilian Crop Information - Agroconsult reported that Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 184.7 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, a 0.9% increase from the early - March forecast. The company adjusted the planting area to 49.1 million hectares and the average national yield to 62.7 bags per hectare. South Rio Grande do Sul is the main area with reduced production, while most other major producing states are performing well [1] 3.3 Malaysian Palm Oil Information - According to ITS, Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026, were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, exports were 1,389,549 tons, a 50.6% increase from the same period last month [1] 3.4 Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products from March 19 - 25, 2026, are provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu. For example, on March 19, 2026, the soybean meal price in Jiangsu was 3300, and on March 25, it dropped to 3190 [1][2]

Oil Market Insights - Oil prices remain elevated despite recent fluctuations, with WTI down about 4% due to optimism regarding a potential ceasefire in ongoing conflicts [4][7] - Chevron has warned of a crisis in California, contributing to rising national gas prices, which have increased by $1 since the start of the conflict [2] - The physical oil market is experiencing minimal increases in shipping flow, with only a slight uptick from one ship to six ships over recent days, indicating limited immediate impact on supply [5] Economic Indicators - Import prices rose by 1.3% month-over-month, significantly higher than the expected 0.6%, marking the largest increase since March 2022 [10][12] - Export prices increased by 1.5%, also surpassing expectations, raising concerns about inflationary pressures across various sectors [13] - Non-fuel imports saw a 1.1% increase, indicating rising costs for consumer goods and input materials, which could affect overall inflation [13] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 has been trading within a range and remains below the 200-day moving average, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [16] - Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD show bearish formations, suggesting a loss of price momentum despite some recent positive movements [6] - The market is characterized by low liquidity, making it susceptible to significant price swings based on news headlines [7][8] Commodity Market Developments - Optimism regarding a ceasefire may lead to a rebound in risk-on assets, including metals like copper and gold, as fears of a global economic slowdown diminish [19] - Upcoming discussions on biofuels and blending requirements could influence agricultural commodity prices, particularly soybeans and corn, potentially impacting oil and gas prices in the near term [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - Brazilian 2025/26 soybean harvest rate reaches 65.79%, lags behind last year's 73.84% but is close to the five - year average of 66.96%. Rainfall in central Brazil is a concern, but overall situation is positive, and Mato Grosso leads with a 99.1% harvest rate [1] - Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 increase by 49.6% (AmSpec) and 38.1% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [1] - China's January 2026 palm oil imports decrease by 5.94% month - on - month, and February imports decrease by 1.61% month - on - month. January rapeseed imports increase by 117.54% month - on - month, and February imports decrease by 42.39% month - on - month. January rapeseed meal imports increase by 11.26% month - on - month, and February imports decrease by 31.14% month - on - month [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazilian soybean harvest rate, palm oil export data from Malaysia, and China's palm oil, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal import data are presented [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 16 - 20, 2026 are provided [2] Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - Only the headings are given, no specific content [3] Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads - Only the heading is given, no specific content [5] Main Producing Country Precipitation Conditions - Only the heading is given, no specific content [1] Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit - Only the heading is given, no specific content [1] Oil Import Profit - Only the heading is given, no specific content [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **global agriculture industry**, particularly the impact of geopolitical events, specifically the **Iran war**, on agricultural commodities and fertilizer markets [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Food Inflation and Energy Prices**: The agriculture sector is significantly affected by rising oil and natural gas prices, which contribute to increased production and logistics costs, leading to higher food prices. Urea prices have surged by **30-40%** across regions due to supply risks affecting **65-70%** of global supplies [1][8][15]. - **Fertilizer Costs**: Fertilizers account for **30-35%** of farm production costs. The ongoing conflict could lead to a **20-30%** price increase for corn and **15-20%** for wheat by **2026**, with soy oil potentially increasing by **5-10%** [2][3]. - **Potential Bull Cycle**: If the conflict extends into the second half of **2026**, agricultural prices could reach **2022 highs**, particularly for corn, due to nitrogen fertilizer market pressures [3][31]. - **Critical Supply Situation**: There is a **six-month window** for Northern Hemisphere farmers to secure nitrogen fertilizers before disruptions could have irreversible effects on corn production [4]. - **Global Supply Risks**: The current fertilizer crisis poses a greater systemic risk compared to the **2022 crisis**, as the concentration of urea production in conflict-affected regions is higher [15][16]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Implications**: The Iran war has broader implications for global fertilizer markets, affecting production in regions like India and Europe, where output has already been cut due to rising gas prices [13][14]. - **Food Security Concerns**: The constrained use of nitrogen fertilizers could threaten global food security more severely than previous fertilizer shocks [14]. - **Market Positioning**: Managed money positioning has shifted to a net long position across agricultural markets, indicating increased investor interest despite lower positioning compared to past crises [36][37]. - **Grain Trade Dynamics**: Approximately **20%** of global wheat and corn production is traded internationally, with wheat being the most widely traded grain [58][60]. - **Transportation Costs**: Rising energy prices are expected to increase transportation costs, which account for about **25%** of the landed cost of Brazilian soybeans delivered to China [120][121]. Conclusion - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran war, are creating significant volatility in agricultural markets, with potential for substantial price increases in key commodities. The situation requires close monitoring as it could have lasting impacts on food security and agricultural production globally.

Soybean futures were headed for the biggest weekly decline since July 2024 as American exports once again stall after US President Donald Trump postponed his meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping https://t.co/B4Ir2H0p8z ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean export sales and shipments in the US for the week ending March 12 were lower than expected, while the export sales of US soybean meal met expectations [1] - Allendale predicts that US farmers will reduce corn planting area by 5.2% and increase soybean planting area by 5.5% in 2026 [1] - Abiove expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 177.85 million tons, with increased soybean crushing, bean - meal and soybean oil production [1] - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 15, 2026 decreased by 5.28% month - on - month [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending March 12, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 29.82 million tons, 35% less than the previous week and 42% less than the four - week average, with a market forecast of 35 - 80 million tons. The export shipments were 90.65 million tons, 9% less than the previous week and 14% less than the four - week average. The new sales for the current market year were 31.77 million tons, and 0.66 million tons for the next market year. The net export sales to China were 7.99 million tons, and the export shipments to China were 54.59 million tons [1] - For the week ending March 12, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 22.09 million tons, 33% more than the previous week and 25% less than the four - week average, meeting the market forecast of 15 - 30 million tons. The export shipments were 39.76 million tons, 10% more than the previous week and 6% more than the four - week average. The new sales for the current market year were 23.46 million tons, and 0.14 million tons for the next market year [1] Planting Area Forecast - Allendale's survey shows that US farmers plan to reduce corn planting area by 5.2% and increase soybean planting area by 5.5% in 2026. The expected corn planting area is 93.678 million acres, and the soybean planting area is 85.659 million acres. USDA's February forecast was 94 million acres for corn and 85 million acres for soybeans. Farmers have sold 83% of the 2025 soybean harvest and 11% of the 2026 harvest [1] Production Forecast - Abiove expects Brazil's 2026 soybean crushing to reach a record 61.5 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 61 million tons. The 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach 177.85 million tons, up from 177.12 million tons. The 2026 soybean exports are expected to be 111.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate. The 2026 bean - meal production is expected to be 47.4 million tons, up from 47 million tons, and the soybean oil production is expected to be 12.35 million tons, up from 12.25 million tons [1] Palm Oil Production - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 15, 2026 decreased by 5.28% month - on - month, with a 2.96% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.44% decrease in oil extraction rate [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 13 - 19, 2026 are provided [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents overnight market information on the oilseeds and oils industry, including export volume forecasts, crop harvest progress, and export data, along with price data for related products [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Anec predicts Brazil's soybean exports in March to be 1,632 million tons, down from last week's forecast of 1,647 million tons; the expected soybean meal shipments are 266 million tons, down from 282 million tons last week [1] - Conab shows that as of the week of March 14, 2026, the harvest rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop is 59.2%, up from 50.6% the previous week, compared to 69.8% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 58.4% [1] - Deral reports that as of the week of March 16, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's Paraná state is 70%, up from 60% the previous week but lower than 81% in the same period last year; the corn planting rate is 83% [1] - SGS indicates that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from March 1 - 15, 2025 is 443,812 tons, a 28.25% increase from 346,061 tons in the same period last month [1] Spot Price - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 11 - 17, 2026 [2] Other Information - The report also mentions information on precipitation in major producing countries, import soybean crushing margins, oil import margins, protein meal basis, oil basis, and oilseeds and oils price spreads, but no detailed data is provided [1][5]

ADECOAGRO 2 0 2 5 R E S U L T S E A R N I N G S W E B C A S T 1 DISCLAIMER This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations, assumptions, estimates and projections about us and our industry. These forward-looking statements can be identified by words or phrases such as "anticipate," "forecast", "believe," "continue," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "is/are likely to," "may," "plan," "should," "would," or other similar expressions. The forward-looking statement ...