油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/08 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 截至1月1日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增75-160万吨 分析师的预估显示，截至1月1日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增75-160万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增75-130万 吨，2026-27年度料净增0-30万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增10-35万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增10-30万吨，2026-27年度料净增0-5万吨。美国豆油 出口销售料净增0-3万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增0-2万吨，2026-27年度料净增0-1万吨。 机构预计截至12月1日美国大豆库存为32.50亿蒲式耳，为2019年以来同期最高 USDA将在1月12日1700GMT(北京时间1月13日凌晨1点）发布季度谷物库存报告。报告发布前，机构平均预期截至12 月1日的大豆库存为32.50亿蒲式耳，较去年同期增加4.8%，为2019年以来最高同期库存。 Anec：巴西2026年大豆出口料创下1.12亿吨纪录新高 巴西谷物出口商组织Anec主管SergioMendes周三在采访中称，巴西大豆贸易商预计2026年将向中国出口7，700万吨 大 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/06 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 1月1日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为980,518吨，符合预期 美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2026年1月1日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为980,518吨，此前市场 预估为75-115万吨，前一周修正后为773,600吨，初值为750,312吨。 当周，对中国大陆的大豆出口检验量为397，069吨，占出口检验总量的40.5%。 截至2025年1月2日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为1,295,819吨。 本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为16,401,241吨，上一年度同期为29,967，442吨。 12月25日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增124.41万吨，符合预期 12月25日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增117.77万吨，较之前一周增加19%，较前四周均值减少20%。 市场预估为净增70-180万吨。其中，对中国大陆出口销售净增39.64万吨。 当周，美国下一年度大豆出口销售净增6.64万吨。市场预估为净增0-15万吨。其中，对中国大陆出口销售净增6.6 万吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船122万吨。较之 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: ITG Guomao Futures Data Daily - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Researcher: Huang Xianglan - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021658 - Qualification Number: F03110419 1. Core Viewpoints - The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics [8]. - US soybean exports are weak, and there is no obvious hype driver in South American weather. Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, with an overall expectation of near - strong and far - weak [8]. - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, but recent downstream transactions are normal, and提货 performance is good [8]. 2. Industry Data Summaries 2.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on December 26, 2025: Dalian was 390 with a rise of 10; in different regions such as Rizhao (330, +10), Tianjin (350, +10), Zhangjiagang (340, - 500), Dongguan (290, - 10), Zhanjiang (310, - 30), and Fangcheng (310, - 10) [4]. - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 76, down 32 [4]. 2.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the spot spread in the market was 399, down 9; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 559, up 12 [5]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 68, down 16; the M3 - M5 spread and M1 - RM1 spread data were also presented [4][5]. 2.3 Supply - related Data - According to CONAB, the predicted output of the 25/26 Brazilian new crop is 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3% [7]. - According to BAGE, as of December 3, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7% [7]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and the de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. The现货 supply pressure is still large, and it is expected to accelerate de - stocking from December to January [8]. 2.4 Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and recent downstream transactions are normal, with good提货 performance [8]. 2.5 Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9815, with no change. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 150 cents per bushel, and the domestic import soybean spot crushing profit was 90 yuan per ton [5]. - The domestic soybean auction had a high premium, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction situations [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - Overseas, Fed official Milan said there's no short - term recession, but rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to turn dovish and cut rates. The market risk appetite is good, with tech stocks driving the US stocks up, the US Treasury yield rising to 4.16%, and the US dollar index dropping to 98.2. Japanese officials signaled possible foreign exchange intervention, strengthening the yen. Geopolitical issues pushed up oil prices. Risk assets are supported by sentiment and liquidity in the short - term, but caution is needed due to approaching holidays [2] - In China, the LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year is 3%. The probability of a rate cut or reserve requirement ratio cut this year is low, with the next possible rate cut expected early next year. A - shares rose on Monday, with the ChiNext and STAR Market rebounding over 2%. Over 2900 stocks closed up, and the trading volume expanded to 1.88 trillion. The market may maintain a wide - range weak - oscillating pattern in the short - term. The bond market readjusted, lacking a clear direction [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to rise strongly on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 2.13% to $4480.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce. Domestic platinum and palladium futures hit the daily limit, and the overseas platinum price reached a new high. The rise is due to the resonance of macro, fundamental, and capital factors. The weakening of the US dollar credit supports gold in the long - term. Silver's strategic position in green energy and high - end manufacturing attracts funds, and platinum and palladium face supply shortages and strong industrial demand [4][5] Group 3: Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract continued to rise on Monday, and LME copper approached $12000. The spot market trading was poor, with domestic trade copper at a discount of 195 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased to 15.7 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased to 46.7 million tons. Fed official Milan maintained a dovish stance, and Trump will announce a new Fed chair in early January, likely to be more dovish. The global mine supply is tight, and the long - term TC benchmark price is 0 dollars/ton. The copper price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 2220 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.82%. The LME closed at $2941 per ton, down 0.49%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 2.2 million tons to 60 million tons on December 22. The Fed's expected rate cut next year is fermenting, and the LME aluminum reached a new high this year. The domestic aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to the fluctuating inventory [8] Group 5: Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2508 yuan/ton on Monday, down 1.18%. The spot alumina national average price was 2751 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain sufficient in the short - term, and the alumina price will continue to be under pressure [9] Group 6: Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21290 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.66%. The raw material scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply decreased slightly due to environmental protection and cost - profit factors. The consumption is stable, and the cast aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10] Group 7: Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The social inventory increased to 12.45 million tons. The 11 - month zinc concentrate imports increased by 13.84% year - on - year and 52.27% month - on - month. The overall zinc price is expected to oscillate due to mixed Fed officials' views, changes in imports and exports, and consumption and supply factors [11][12] Group 8: Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated weakly on Monday. The social inventory decreased to 2.02 million tons. Near the end of the year, the supply and demand of the lead industry are both weak. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation [13][14] Group 9: Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The 11 - month tin concentrate imports increased significantly, especially from Myanmar. The supply is expected to improve, and the tin price has a high - level adjustment risk [15][16] Group 10: Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon oscillated on Monday. The supply in Xinjiang is at a relatively high level, while that in the southwest is weak. The demand is mainly for historical orders. The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate narrowly [17][18] Group 11: Steel Products - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The five major steel products' production and apparent demand adjusted slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is expected to oscillate mainly, and attention should be paid to the acceptance of the price rebound [19] Group 12: Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The overseas shipment and arrival volume decreased this week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is weak due to steel mills' production cuts and the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate under pressure [20] Group 13: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated on Monday. The third round of coke price cuts was implemented, reducing coking profits and weakening the procurement of raw coal. The coking coal supply is generally stable. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [21] Group 14: Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.18%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.56%. The US soybean export sales are still slow, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. The domestic rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [22][23] Group 15: Palm Oil - The palm oil 05 contract rose 0.94% on Monday. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the export demand improved. The domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly. The palm oil price is expected to stop falling and enter an oscillating state in the short - term [24][25]

政策激励赋能，筑牢粮食增产根基。市农技推广中心相关工作人员介绍，今年全市积极向上争取政策支 持，全年累计争取国家级、省级粮油相关项目资金总额近4000万元，为单产提升、绿色高产高效行动提 供坚实保障。市级层面统筹79万元专项资金，设立粮油高产竞赛、优质稻米奖励，推动各县（市、区） 出台配套激励政策，构建起上下联动、多方参与的政策体系，有效激发新型农业经营主体和农户种粮积 极性。政策红利下，我市粮油生产捷报频传，全年刷新9项浙江省"农业之最"高产纪录，覆盖江山早 稻、再生稻、单季晚稻，开化籽粒玉米、大豆，龙游鲜食玉米等多个品类，其中江山市宣林家庭农场种 植的"中组100"早稻，更是刷新全国百亩方高产纪录。 （来源：衢州日报） 转自：衢州日报 本报讯 （记者 林敏 通讯员 李诚永） 近日，国家统计局衢州调查队数据显示，2025年我市粮食实现总 产量、播种面积和单产"三增"。其中，粮食播种面积达137.11万亩，同比增长0.97万亩；产量达57.40万 吨，同比增长0.41万吨，均创近十年来新高，同时单位面积产量达418.67公斤/亩，同比增长0.03公斤/ 亩，创近七年来新高。 ...

一艘装载6.5万吨阿根廷小麦的货轮13日从圣菲省廷布埃斯港启航前往中国，这是阿根廷2024年1月获得对华小麦出口资质后首次向中国开展小麦商业出口，这也是中国自上世纪90年代以来首次购入阿根廷小麦。12月12日，米莱政府再次削减了农产品出口关税，其中小麦的关税下调2个百分点至7.5%。 https://t.co/0fOR3P1J5Z外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):阿根廷政府宣布，在10月31日之前，或出口总额达到70亿美元之前，暂免大豆（此前26%关税）、豆油（24%）、豆粕（24%）、玉米（9.5%）和小麦（9.5%）等农产品出口关税。路透援引贸易商消息报道，在阿根廷宣布免税后，中国买家已从阿根廷预订了至少10船大豆，为第四季度建立库存。另有贸易商称15船。 https://t.co/nMXdgOfpUA ...

Deadly flooding in Asia and early snowstorms across the US are signaling the return of a weather-roiling La Niña, a cooling of Pacific waters that can disrupt economies and trigger disasters worldwide.In recent La Niña years, global losses have ranged from $258 billion to $329 billion, according to Aon, a reinsurance broker and data analysis firm. Despite year-to-year swings in damage totals, the overall trajectory is unmistakable: Extreme weather is pushing losses higher. The La Niña phenomenon is often li ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The U.S. soybean crush volume in November 2025 is expected to decline by 3.2% from October's record high but increase by 14.0% from November 2024 [1]. - The estimated soybean oil inventory of NOPA members as of November 30, 2025, is expected to reach a seven - month high, up 7.9% from the end of October and 29.9% from the previous year [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, with 0 tons for 2026 - 27 [1]. - The 2025/26 global soybean export volume is expected to increase mainly driven by Brazil, while the exports of the U.S. and Argentina may decline [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 46.98% compared to the same period last month [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Overnight Market Information - U.S. November 2025 soybean crush volume is estimated to be 220.285 million bushels, with an estimated range of 213 million to 224.332 million bushels and a median of 220.85 million bushels [1]. - As of November 30, 2025, NOPA's soybean oil inventory is expected to be 1.408 billion pounds, with an estimated range of 1.32 billion to 1.508 billion pounds and a median of 1.4 billion pounds [1]. - From November 1 - 20, 2025, U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 80 - 300 million tons, 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean meal export sales by 10 - 45 million tons, and 2025 - 26 U.S. soybean oil export sales by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25, and production is expected to reach 178.3 million tons, up 4.1% from the previous year [1]. - In 2025/26, the U.S. soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25, and Argentina's soybean exports are likely to decline due to reduced production and increased crush volume [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10, 2025, were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

Group 1: Report Core Views - The soybean export sales of the United States from November 13th are expected to increase, with the 2025 - 26 annual soybean export sales expected to net increase by 60 - 140 million tons, the 2025 - 26 annual soybean meal export sales expected to net increase by 5 - 45 million tons, and the 2025 - 26 annual soybean oil export sales expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] - The soybean crushing volume in the United States in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons, and the soybean oil production was 2.83 billion pounds, which increased by 18% compared to September 2025 and 11% compared to October 2024 [1] - Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of November reached the highest level in more than six and a half years, with a 13% increase to 2.84 million tons due to increased production and weak export demand [1] - Australia's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to increase to 7.2 million tons, and Canada's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to increase to 21.8 million tons [1] Group 2: Key Data U.S. Data - The U.S. soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons (237 million bushels), the September 2025 crushing volume was 6.15 million short tons (205 million bushels), and the October 2024 crushing volume was 6.47 million short tons (216 million bushels) [1] - The U.S. soybean oil production in October 2025 was 2.83 billion pounds, a 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024 [1] Malaysia Data - Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13% to 2.84 million tons, the November production decreased by 5.3% to 1.94 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 28.13% to 1.21 million tons [1] - From December 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm - oil export volume decreased by 15% according to ITS and 10.31% according to AmSpec [1] Rapeseed Data - Australia's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to be 7.2 million tons, and Canada's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to be 21.8 million tons [1] Spot Price Data | Date | Bean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | | 2025/12/09 | 3000 | 2460 | 8450 | 8570 | 9630 | | 2025/12/10 | 3030 | 2490 | 8500 | 8510 | 9680 | [5]