Core Insights - AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB) is set to announce its third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, 2025, after market close [1] - The U.S. apartment market has experienced a slowdown, with effective asking rents declining by 0.3% from July to September 2025, marking the first rent cut during this period since 2009 [3] - AvalonBay's third-quarter results are expected to reflect stable performance due to its high-quality apartment portfolio in premium markets, with projected same-store net operating income (NOI) growth of 2.2% and economic occupancy of 96.3% [8][11] Company Performance - In the last reported quarter, AvalonBay delivered a surprise of 0.71% in core funds from operations (FFO) per share, with an average beat of 0.46% over the past four quarters [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AvalonBay's third-quarter revenues is $772.14 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 5.2% [11] - Core FFO per share is expected to be in the range of $2.75-$2.85, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 2.6% [12] Market Conditions - Approximately 637,000 market-rate apartments were absorbed in the year-ending third quarter of 2025, a decrease from nearly 784,900 units absorbed in the previous quarter [4] - Construction of about 474,800 units was completed nationwide over the past year, with 105,500 units completed in the third quarter [5] - Occupancy rates have slipped to 95.4%, down 30 basis points, ending five consecutive quarters of gains [5] Regional Insights - Rent declines have varied by region, with markets like Denver and Austin experiencing nearly 8% drops, while tech-heavy coastal hubs like San Francisco and New York saw modest rent growth [7] Future Outlook - AvalonBay's strategy of focusing on high-growth markets is expected to support stable rental income, although higher operating and interest expenses may temper gains [9][11] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of +1.29%, indicating uncertainty regarding a surprise in FFO per share for the upcoming quarter [13][14]