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Sector Spotlight: Multifamily REITs - They Survived Until 2025!
Seeking Alpha· 2025-01-04 08:57
COVID-19 Impact on Apartment Industry - COVID-19 led to a significant migration of Americans to cities with lower real estate costs, more space, lower income taxes, and better weather, particularly in Sunbelt regions like Phoenix, Dallas, Tampa, Nashville, Atlanta, and Las Vegas [1] - Multifamily landlords capitalized on this trend by raising rents in cities like Austin by 20%, which still offered savings for workers relocating from high-cost areas like San Francisco [1] - By 2023, developers with access to cheap capital began delivering the largest new apartment supply in nearly 50 years [1] Market Dynamics and Supply-Demand Balance - The surge in new apartment supply began to outpace demand by 2023, leading to declining occupancy rates and stagnant or even decreasing rents in some markets [2] - Rising interest rates in 2023 made new development uneconomical, leading to a slowdown in new projects and a focus on survival until 2025 [2] Multifamily REIT Performance in 2024 - Early pandemic rent growth pushed apartment REIT earnings multiples to 25-30x, but as rent growth stalled, share prices fell back to more modest levels [4] - By 2024, multifamily REITs outperformed the broader REIT market, signaling a potential return of investor optimism [4] Market Valuations and AFFO Metrics - Multifamily REITs were valued at an average P/AFFO multiple of 18.3x by the end of 2024, down from the peak of 25-30x in 2021 [7] - The sector's mean P/AFFO multiple of 19.3x was a premium compared to the 16.4x average for the entire equity REIT universe [7] Same-Store Net Operating Income (SSNOI) Trends - SSNOI growth in the multifamily sector averaged 0.7% in 3Q24 compared to 3Q23, reflecting suppressed rent growth and occupancy due to new supply [9][10] - Companies like AvalonBay Communities and Equity Residential saw positive SSNOI growth, while others like BRT Apartments Corp and NexPoint Residential Trust experienced declines [11] Net Asset Value (NAV) and Capitalization Rates - Multifamily REITs traded at an average 10% discount to consensus NAV by 2024, with NAV estimates derived using capitalization rates ranging from 4.9% to 6.0% [12][13] - Companies like Essex Property Trust and AvalonBay Communities traded close to NAV, while others like BRT Apartments Corp traded at a significant discount [13] Economic and Market Outlook - Strong employment and household formation are expected to sustain high demand for apartments, while reduced new supply could give landlords more leverage in rental rate negotiations [8][15] - High borrowing costs will continue to suppress new apartment development, benefiting existing landlords but pressuring REITs with high leverage [16] Sector Diversity and Investment Considerations - Multifamily REITs vary widely in capital structure, market geographies, demographics, and management strategies, necessitating individual company analysis for investment decisions [17]
Should AvalonBay Communities Stock be Retained in Your Portfolio Now?
ZACKS· 2024-12-18 17:51
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) is well-poised to gain from the healthy renter demand driven by favorable demographic trends and rising home ownership costs. The company’s efforts to leverage technology and scale to drive operational efficiency seem encouraging.Strategic buyouts and development projects, backed by a healthy balance sheet position, augur well for long-term growth. However, the elevated supply of rental units in certain markets and high interest expenses add to its woes.Over the past six months, ...
AvalonBay Stock Gains 19.2% in Six Months: More Room to Run?
ZACKS· 2024-11-26 17:35
Shares of AvalonBay Communities (AVB) have gained 19.2% over the past six months, outperforming the industry's 12.8% growth.In November, AVB reported third-quarter 2024 core funds from operations (FFO) per share of $2.74, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.71. The figure climbed 3% from the prior-year quarter’s tally.The quarterly results reflected a year-over-year increase in same-store residential revenues. Same-store average monthly revenue per occupied home also rose. This residential REIT ra ...
3 Industry-Leading High-Yield REITs to Buy With $1,000 and Hold Forever
The Motley Fool· 2024-11-26 11:50
The S&P 500 index (^GSPC 0.30%) average yield is just 1.2% today. You can do much better than that without too much effort. For example, sector-leading real estate investment trusts (REITs) Realty Income (O), Prologis (PLD 1.96%), and AvalonBay (AVB 0.41%) have yields that range from 2.9% to 5.5% at their current share prices. You can find higher yields than 5.5% in the REIT sector, but what you won't easily find are industry-leading performers like Realty Income, Prologis, and AvalonBay. Here's why each is ...
AvalonBay Stock: 6 Reasons Why I'm Skeptical Of The Price
Seeking Alpha· 2024-11-22 13:30
We previously covered AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE: AVB ) in June and, in this article, we provide six reasons why we are maintaining our hold recommendation on the security. Briefly, the six reasons are: (a) an insufficient risk-reward relationship as comparedI am a CFA charterholder and a CIPM certificant. Professionally, I assist firms comply with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). The GIPS Standards has to do with how investment performance is calculated and presented by asset mana ...
This Stock Deserves a Closer Look by Savvy Investors
The Motley Fool· 2024-11-19 12:30
Explore the exciting world of AvalonBay Communities (AVB -0.08%) with our expert analysts in this Motley Fool Scoreboard episode. Check out the video below to gain valuable insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities!*Stock prices used were the prices of Oct. 16, 2024. The video was published on Nov. 19, 2024. ...
AvalonBay Communities(AVB) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2024-11-12 19:08
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q ☒QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended September 30, 2024 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from ______ to ______ Commission File Number: 1-12672 AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Maryland 77-0404318 (State or othe ...
Is AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Stock Outpacing Its Finance Peers This Year?
ZACKS· 2024-11-11 15:41
The Finance group has plenty of great stocks, but investors should always be looking for companies that are outperforming their peers. Is AvalonBay Communities (AVB) one of those stocks right now? By taking a look at the stock's year-to-date performance in comparison to its Finance peers, we might be able to answer that question.AvalonBay Communities is a member of our Finance group, which includes 872 different companies and currently sits at #1 in the Zacks Sector Rank. The Zacks Sector Rank gauges the st ...
AvalonBay Communities(AVB) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-11-05 21:01
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE:AVB) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call November 5, 2024 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Jason Reilley - Vice President, Investor Relations Benjamin Schall - Chief Executive Officer and President Kevin O'Shea - Chief Financial Officer Sean Breslin - Chief Operating Officer Matthew Birenbaum - Chief Investment Officer Conference Call Participants Eric Wolfe - Citi Jamie Feldman - Wells Fargo Adam Kramer - Morgan Stanley Steve Sakwa - Evercore ISI Austin Wurschmidt - KeyBanc C ...
AvalonBay Q3 FFO & Revenues Surpass Estimates, View Revised
ZACKS· 2024-11-05 17:31
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) reported third-quarter 2024 core funds from operation (FFO) per share of $2.74, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.71. Moreover, the figure climbed 3% from the prior-year quarter.Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.The quarterly results reflected a year-over-year increase in same-store residential revenues. Same-store average monthly revenue per occupied home also rose. This residential REIT revised its 2024 core FFO per share outlo ...