AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 31, 2025 01:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsJason Reilley - VP - IRBenjamin Schall - CEO & PresidentKevin O'Shea - Chief Financial OfficerSean Breslin - Chief Operating OfficerMatthew Birenbaum - Chief Investment OfficerNick Joseph - Head - US Real Estate & Lodging Research TeamJamie Feldman - MD & Head - REIT ResearchAdam Kramer - VP - Equity ResearchRich Hightower - MD - U.S. REIT ResearchJohn Kim - MD - U.S. Real EstateJeffrey Spector - Managing Directo ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter and first half of the year results exceeded initial guidance, with revenue growth driven by higher occupancy and rental revenue [5][6] - Core FFO growth was reported at 3.3% year to date, positioning the company toward the top of the sector [9] - Operating expenses growth is now forecasted at 3.1%, 100 basis points better than original guidance, leading to higher NOI growth projected at 2.7% for 2025 [6][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same store NOI growth is projected at 2.7%, which is 30 basis points above initial expectations, driven by a reduction in expense growth [12][13] - New development projects started in the first half of the year totaled $610 million, with a revised target of $1.7 billion for the full year [9][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total market occupancy in established regions stands at 94.8%, while the Sunbelt region is at 89.5% due to elevated standing inventory [10] - Economic occupancy in New York, New Jersey averaged 96.3% during Q2, while Seattle achieved 96.6% [19][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on acquiring $900 million of assets this year, primarily funded by capital from dispositions [8] - Development projects are expected to generate differentiated external growth, with ongoing projects trending above pro forma stabilized yields [7][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that job growth expectations for the second half of the year are more muted, but demand remains healthy across most of the portfolio [6] - The company anticipates that new supply in established regions will continue to decline, supporting healthy operating fundamentals [6][10] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.3 billion of capital year to date at an initial cost of 5%, which is attractive relative to yields on new development projects [9] - The CEO acknowledged the retirement of the Head of Investor Relations, Jason Reilly, after 21 years with the company [10][11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is impacting the pace of leasing in Denver communities? - The leasing pace is averaging about 30 homes per month, which is in line with expectations, but some delays are due to elevated concessions in competitive submarkets [30][32] Question: What gives confidence in achieving the same number of occupied units by year-end? - The company has seen good velocity in leasing, averaging 30 homes per month, and expects to push harder on concessions to maintain occupancy [34][36] Question: What caused the leveling off in asking rent trends? - Demand has softened due to weaker job growth, with about 100,000 fewer jobs than originally projected impacting rent growth [41][42] Question: Why is bad debt running higher compared to peers? - The company charges for all amounts due under lease terms, including late fees and utilities, which may contribute to higher bad debt figures [44][45] Question: How is the Dallas acquisition performing? - The acquisition is trending as expected, with increased resources being allocated to asset management [52][54] Question: What regions are expected to underperform in rent change? - The Mid Atlantic and Southern California are projected to underperform due to weaker job environments and pricing power [58][60] Question: What is the outlook for the DC asset sales? - The DC market is challenging due to unique laws, but the company is comfortable with current pricing and values for the assets [91][94]

Key Takeaways AVB posted Q2 core FFO of $2.82, beating estimates and rising 1.8% year over year.2025 guidance reflects stronger same-store NOI but lower development NOI due to delayed occupancies.Same-store revenues rose 3.0% and NOI grew 2.7%, supported by higher rents and improved occupancy.AvalonBay Communities (AVB) reported second-quarter 2025 core funds from operations (FFO) per share of $2.82, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.80. The figure also climbed 1.8% from the prior-year quarter’s ta ...

Financial Performance - Core FFO per share growth for Q2 2025 was 18% year-over-year, and 33% for the first half of the year[10] - Same Store Residential revenue growth was 30% year-over-year for both Q2 2025 and the first half of the year[10] - The company raised $13 billion in capital year-to-date at a weighted average initial cost of capital of 50%[9, 10] - The initial outlook projected full year Same Store Residential revenue growth was revised from 30% to 28%, partially due to changes in the composition of the Same Store segment[22, 37] Market Dynamics - Established Regions are expected to be insulated from standing inventory overhang, with new supply expected to decline to historically low levels in 2026[17] - Market occupancy in Established Regions was 948% in June 2025, compared to 895% in Sunbelt Regions[18] - Projected new market rate apartment deliveries in Established Regions for 2026 are expected to be 08% of inventory, compared to 18% in Sunbelt Regions[20] - Expansion Regions are projected to represent approximately 7% of Same Store Residential revenue in 2025, while Established Regions are projected to represent approximately 93%[48] Development Activity - Approximately $3 billion of Development is underway, expected to provide incremental earnings and value creation upon stabilization[9] - Total capital cost for development starts is projected at $17 billion for the full year 2025[22] - Projected NOI from development communities is expected to be $25 million for 2025, a decrease from the initial outlook of $30 million due to delayed occupancies[22] - Projected initial stabilized yields for development communities are trending above underwriting, with a spread of 100-150 bps to the cost of capital[56]

Exhibit 99.2 For Immediate News Release July 30, 2025 AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. PROVIDES Q2 2025 RESULTS AND UPDATES FULL YEAR 2025 OUTLOOK (Arlington, VA) AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE: AVB) (the "Company") reported Earnings per Share – diluted ("EPS"), Funds from Operations attributable to common stockholders - diluted ("FFO") per share and Core FFO per share (as defined in this release) for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 as detailed below. | | Q2 2025 | | | Q2 2024 | % Change ...

Group 1 - AvalonBay Communities (AVB) reported quarterly funds from operations (FFO) of $2.82 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.8 per share, and showing an increase from $2.77 per share a year ago, resulting in an FFO surprise of +0.71% [1] - The company posted revenues of $760.2 million for the quarter ended June 2025, which was slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.2%, compared to $726.04 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, AvalonBay has surpassed consensus FFO estimates three times, but has only topped consensus revenue estimates once [2] Group 2 - The stock's immediate price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call, as AvalonBay shares have declined approximately 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has gained 8.3% [3] - The current consensus FFO estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.86 on revenues of $776.28 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $11.40 on revenues of $3.06 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the REIT and Equity Trust - Residential sector is in the top 35% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

Core Viewpoint - AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is expected to announce its second-quarter 2025 results, with a focus on its performance amid current market conditions and the overall resilience of the U.S. apartment market [1][2]. Company Performance - In the last reported quarter, AvalonBay delivered a surprise of 1.07% in core funds from operations (FFO) per share, with a year-over-year increase in same-store residential revenues, although higher interest expenses impacted results [2]. - The company has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 0.83% [2]. - For the two months ending May 31, 2025, AvalonBay reported a 3% year-over-year increase in same-store residential revenues, with occupancy at 96.3%, up from 96% in the first quarter [11]. Market Conditions - The U.S. apartment market absorbed over 227,000 units in Q2 2025, reflecting strong demand despite economic uncertainties [3]. - National occupancy rates rose to 95.6% in June, a 140 basis point increase year-over-year, indicating a focus on maximizing occupancy over rent increases [4]. - More than 535,000 units were completed in the past year, with 108,000 delivered in Q2, showcasing the market's ability to absorb new supply [5]. Regional Insights - Tech-driven markets like San Francisco, San Jose, Boston, and New York showed momentum, while Sun Belt markets like Dallas and Atlanta also demonstrated recovery [6]. - Conversely, tourism-dependent cities like Las Vegas and Orlando experienced slight declines, reflecting softening discretionary spending [6]. Strategic Positioning - AvalonBay focuses on high-quality assets in premium markets, which supports steady rental revenues and occupancy [7]. - The company's strategy of targeting high-growth markets through development and acquisition has led to solid occupancy and premium pricing [8]. - Despite elevated supply, AvalonBay is expected to maintain healthy occupancy growth and strong balance sheet strength [9]. Projections - Projections for Q2 2025 include an economic occupancy of 96.2%, a 2.2% year-over-year increase in same-store average rental rates, and a 1.3% growth in same-store net operating income (NOI) [12]. - Interest expenses are expected to rise by 9.7% year-over-year in Q2 [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 revenues is $761.75 million, indicating a 4.92% year-over-year increase [12]. Earnings Expectations - AvalonBay expects core FFO per share in the range of $2.72-$2.82, with a slight downward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate to $2.80, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 1.08% [13]. - The company's Earnings ESP is +0.02%, indicating a potential surprise in FFO per share for the quarter [14].

Industry Overview - The U.S. apartment market demonstrated resilience in Q2 2025, absorbing over 227,000 units, surpassing previous peak leasing periods in 2021 and early 2022 despite economic uncertainties [1][11] - National occupancy rates increased to 95.6%, a rise of 140 basis points year-over-year, indicating strong demand for professionally managed apartments [3][11] - Rent growth remained subdued at 0.19% in June, with operators prioritizing occupancy over rent increases, suggesting a "heads-in-beds" strategy to maintain stability amid high new supply [3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Over 535,000 units were completed in the past year, with approximately 108,000 delivered in Q2 2025, reflecting the market's capacity to absorb new supply [4] - Regional markets such as San Francisco, San Jose, Boston, and New York showed momentum, aided by easing supply and return-to-office trends, while Sun Belt markets like Dallas and Atlanta also exhibited recovery [5] Company Performance AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB) - AvalonBay reported a 3% year-over-year increase in same-store residential revenues for the two months ending May 31, 2025, with occupancy at 96.3% [7][11] - The company is expected to announce Q2 2025 earnings on July 30, with a revenue estimate of $761.75 million, indicating a 4.92% year-over-year increase [8] Equity Residential (EQR) - EQR maintained strong occupancy levels and reported same-store revenue growth in Q1 2025, supported by improving demand and limited resident turnover [9][11] - The company is set to release Q2 2025 earnings on August 4, with a revenue estimate of $769.26 million, suggesting a 4.78% year-over-year increase [12] Essex Property Trust, Inc. (ESS) - Essex benefits from substantial exposure to the West Coast market, which has favorable demographics and high median household incomes, supporting its revenue growth [13][14] - The company is expected to announce Q2 2025 earnings on July 29, with a revenue estimate of $469.19 million, indicating a 6.07% year-over-year rise [15] UDR, Inc. (UDR) - UDR's diversified portfolio and strong demand for rental units position it well for growth, with occupancy nearly at 97% [16][17] - The company is set to announce Q2 2025 earnings on July 30, with a revenue estimate of $422.24 million, reflecting a 2.15% year-over-year increase [18]

Group 1 - Rent control is often mischaracterized as a conflict between landlords and tenants, but the reality is more complex [1] - Zohran Mamdani's campaign for NYC Mayor includes a pledge to freeze rents on rent-stabilized apartments, which could have significant implications for apartment REITs [2][3] - The board governing rental rates for rent-stabilized apartments has historically approved rent increases that match inflation, but Mamdani aims to elect members who support rent freezes [3][6] Group 2 - AvalonBay (AVB) has substantial exposure to NYC, but its average monthly rent exceeds $3,000, while rent-controlled apartments are around $1,500, indicating minimal impact from rent freezes [4][6] - Mamdani's popularity reflects a broader frustration with high living costs, which may encourage similar policies across the country [7][10] - Rent control policies can extend beyond affordable housing, as seen in California's Tenant Protection Act, which caps rent increases [10][11] Group 3 - Rent control can lower the prices landlords charge but may discourage capital expenditures (capex) and new developments, impacting overall market dynamics [12][15][17] - The ripple effects of rent control are complex, with some arguing it may benefit landlords by reducing capex while maintaining cash flow [18][24] - Historical rent control areas like NYC and California face high rents and housing shortages, complicating the relationship between rent control and market conditions [18][19] Group 4 - The impact of rent control on apartment REITs is mixed, with potential for lower rent growth, reduced capex, and limited competing development [27][30] - Texas, with its low regulations and ample land, has seen high supply and lower rental rates, contrasting with rent-controlled markets [25][26] - The performance of apartment REITs may be more influenced by individual company operations and fundamentals rather than political ideologies [31][32]

Financial Performance & Outlook - Core FFO per share year-over-year growth was 3% for Q3 2024 and 41% year-to-date[44] - Same Store Residential Rental Revenue year-over-year growth was 31% for Q3 2024 and 35% year-to-date[44] - Projected Core FFO per share growth for the full year 2024 is 39%, increased from a prior outlook of 37% and an initial outlook of 14%[46] - Same Store Residential Revenue growth outlook for the full year 2024 is 35%[46] - Same Store Operating Expense growth outlook for the full year 2024 is approximately 45%[63] Development & Capital Allocation - Development starts increased to over $1 billion in 2024, with over 90% in suburban submarkets[8, 19, 31] - $850 million of capital was sourced from 3Q 2024 forward equity activity[8, 19, 35] - Year-to-date development completions totaled $945 million with a weighted average projected initial stabilized yield of 65%[29, 44] - $176 billion of capital was sourced year-to-date at a 51% weighted average initial cost of capital[19, 35, 44] Portfolio Strategy - The company is driving suburban allocation toward an 80% target[19] - The company is targeting a 25% allocation to expansion regions[19, 27] - 73% of the portfolio is currently allocated to suburban areas[27]