Accessible version Lithium turns into deficit in 2026E; price upside in 1H26 We turned positive on China lithium sector in Aug-2025 (see our report: CATL lithium mine suspension & peak season; upgrade Ganfeng/ Tianqi). Lithium demand has been stronger than expected, with over 10% deficit in Sep'25 and inventory dropped to below 40 days (Exhibit 16). Our global team sees (Exhibit 14) a small deficit for lithium in 2026, with strong ESS demand (c.0.4mnt LCE); and lithium price of US$16.2k/ton in 2026, equival ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Energy Storage Systems (ESS) in China Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)** market in China, highlighting its rapid expansion driven by strong policy support and increased project filings [6][15][17]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Growth Projections**: - Global ESS installations are projected to grow by **40-60% year-over-year in 2026**, an increase from the previous estimate of approximately **30%** [6][7]. - China's ESS installation estimates for FY25-30 have been raised by **14-32%**, with a target of **180GW** installed capacity by 2027 [6][15]. 2. **Policy Support**: - Recent regulatory actions across multiple provinces are accelerating ESS deployment, with over **4,200 projects** totaling **518GWh** filed in Q3 2025, marking a **343% year-over-year increase** [6][33][35]. - The **NDRC** announced an "Action Plan in Energy Storage Development" targeting **180GW** of cumulative ESS installations by 2027, requiring an investment of **Rmb250 billion** [15][17]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - The shift from mandatory ESS paired with renewable energy to independent ESS is noted, with capacity compensation models emerging as a future revenue source [23]. - Independent ESS projects accounted for **93.2%** of total capacity in the recent surge of project filings [35]. 4. **Earnings Impact**: - Earnings for ESS-related companies, such as **Sungrow**, are expected to increase by **2-15%** due to the favorable market conditions [6][8]. 5. **Regional Developments**: - Various provinces are implementing capacity compensation policies to incentivize local ESS installations, with specific rates outlined for different regions [18][21]. Additional Important Content - **AIDC Trends**: - The call discussed the rising power demand from **AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Centers)**, which is expected to account for **12%** of total US power demand by 2028, driving ESS adoption [61][62]. - AIDC projects are anticipated to have an ESS attachment ratio ranging from **10% to 30%** of their load, with durations varying from **2 to 8 hours** [62]. - **Financial Analysis**: - ESS projects in **Inner Mongolia** are projected to achieve an internal rate of return (IRR) of **13%** over the next 10 years, incentivizing further development under the current policy framework [24]. - **Market Challenges**: - Despite the surge in project filings, there is a cautionary note that not all filings may convert to actual installations, as developers may rush to secure project resources [38]. - **Future Outlook**: - The ESS market is expected to continue evolving with increasing integration of renewable energy and advancements in technology, potentially leading to a more flexible and resilient power system [17][67]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future prospects of the ESS market in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **liquid cooling technology** within the **data center** industry, particularly the **GB300 cooling system architecture** and its implications for suppliers, especially in China [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GB300 System Architecture**: - The GB300 servers did not utilize the **Cordelia motherboard architecture** due to design challenges, opting instead for a **Bianca-style "T-shaped" layout** with improved liquid-to-air ratios [2][3]. - The current design retains eight fans, indicating it is not fully liquid-cooled [2]. 2. **Product Innovation**: - Liquid cooling is transitioning from a niche to a mainstream solution due to increasing rack power densities and sustainability goals [3]. - Innovations include: - **Electrical System Liquid Cooling**: This approach addresses thermal and electrical challenges as rack power levels exceed 300 kW, with OCP specifications now including liquid-cooled busbar standards [4]. - **Two-Phase Liquid Cooling**: This method enhances thermal performance but presents engineering challenges such as pressure stability and leak detection [4]. 3. **Coolant Distribution Units (CDUs)**: - CDUs are critical for liquid cooling infrastructure, with three dominant architectures emerging [5][9]. 4. **Customer Landscape**: - Google's **Open Rack initiative** promotes interoperability among suppliers, with several companies showcasing prototypes at the OCP summit [6]. - Major integrators prefer local brands for critical components, indicating a trend towards localized supply chains [6]. 5. **Opportunities for Chinese Suppliers**: - Chinese vendors, such as **Envicool**, are positioned to benefit from these trends, with advancements in localized service centers and compliance with Open Rack standards [7]. - Emerging technologies like micro-channel cold plates present additional opportunities for differentiation [7]. 6. **Investment Recommendations**: - **Shenzhen Envicool Technology** is valued at a price target of **Rmb85.64** based on a **60x 2026E PE**, with risks including fluctuations in global AI Capex and competition [10]. - **Shenzhen Kstar Science and Technology** is valued at **Rmb64.86**, implying a **40x 2026E P/E**, with risks related to domestic AI Capex and competition [11]. Additional Important Insights - The evolution of liquid cooling products has been slower than anticipated, with many legacy designs still prevalent, limiting opportunities for local manufacturers [8]. - The integration of advanced leak detection technologies in cooling systems enhances safety and operational efficiency [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of robust safety measures and advanced sealing technologies for the successful deployment of two-phase cooling systems [4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of liquid cooling technology and the strategic positioning of companies within this sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the China Energy Storage Industry Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Energy Storage Industry, specifically focusing on the US AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) power demand and BESS (Battery Energy Storage System) demand growth outlook [2][3] Core Insights - **Electricity Demand Growth**: The US is expected to experience a significant increase in electricity demand, with a projected CAGR of 3.6% from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by AIDC, which will contribute over 70% of this growth [2][3] - **AIDC's Share of Power Consumption**: AIDC's share of total power consumption is anticipated to rise from 3.8% in 2024 to 15% by 2030 [2] - **Power Supply Gap**: A persistent power supply gap in the US is expected due to a shortage of gas turbines and the lengthy construction time for new natural gas plants, which can take at least 7 years [3] - **Renewables and BESS Contribution**: Solar and BESS are projected to account for 75-80% of new power capacity from 2025 to 2027 due to their shorter construction cycles compared to gas plants [3] Forecasts and Projections - **Solar and BESS Installations**: US solar installations are forecasted to grow to 50 GW in 2026 from 40 GW in 2024, while BESS installations are expected to increase from 35 GWh in 2024 to 60-70 GWh by 2028 [4] - **Off-Grid Solutions**: There is potential for off-grid power supply solutions to gain market share, with less than 10% of AIDC currently utilizing off-grid solutions, which may increase significantly in the future [4] Competitive Landscape - **Chinese BESS Makers**: Chinese BESS manufacturers are positioned competitively in the backup and off-grid markets due to lower costs. They can capture market share as backup power systems are not subject to tax credits if not grid-connected [5] - **Market Dynamics**: The gross profit margin (GPM) for sales to AIDC customers may not be significantly higher due to limited technology differentiation in BESS manufacturing [5] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: Major risks to the energy storage industry include slower-than-expected growth in domestic renewable energy capacity, smaller-than-expected electricity price spreads, and potential tariffs on Chinese-made products [8] - **Valuation Risks**: For companies like NXT and FSLR, risks include evolving US import tariffs and demand volatility in solar markets, which could impact profitability and growth forecasts [9][10] Investment Recommendations - **Stock Ratings**: - First Solar Inc (FSLR) is rated as "Buy" with a price target of $267.52 [22] - NEXTracker Inc (NXT) is also rated as "Buy" with a price target of $96.51 [22] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the China Energy Storage Industry, focusing on the US market dynamics, growth forecasts, competitive landscape, and associated risks.

Summary of Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech (002518.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech (002518.SZ) - **Industry**: Electric power conversion technology, focusing on data centers and energy storage systems (ESS) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Target Price Revision**: - The 12-month target price (TP) is raised to Rmb55.4 from Rmb48.5, reflecting a 13.7% upside from the current price of Rmb48.73 [1][18] - The new TP is based on a 30x 2026E P/E, considering a long-term EPS CAGR of 28% from 2026E to 2030E [18] 2. **Positive Business Developments**: - Positive read-across from SolarEdge's 3Q25 earnings indicates healthy ESS demand in Europe, with SolarEdge's revenue growing by 55% quarter-over-quarter [3][18] - Kstar launched a new MW-level UPS product, enhancing its product offerings [1][19] - Potential AIDC power system orders from European and Taiwanese customers for North American data center projects [1][19] 3. **Market Position and Growth Potential**: - Kstar is positioned as a key beneficiary of overseas data center buildout and residential/C&I ESS demand [2] - The company is expanding its customer base through an ODM model across Europe, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia [2] - There is potential for wallet share gain from domestic cloud hyperscalers like Alibaba and Bytedance [2] 4. **Financial Forecasts**: - 2025E revenue is projected at Rmb5,331.6 million, with a significant increase to Rmb8,998.7 million by 2027E [5] - EBITDA is expected to grow from Rmb794.0 million in 2025E to Rmb1,762.8 million in 2027E [5] - EPS is forecasted to increase from Rmb1.14 in 2025E to Rmb2.52 in 2027E [5] 5. **Margin Improvement**: - An improving margin profile is anticipated due to rising overseas sales contributions, with gross profit margins for high-power UPS expected to be between 35%-40% [18] - Overall data center products segment gross profit margin was 33.3% in 1H25 [18] 6. **Product Innovations**: - Kstar is developing in-house Solid-State Transformer (SST) products, with a launch expected around the end of 2026 [17][19] - The new 1250kW UPS product can scale up to 5MW and supports various backup energy sources, targeting AI data centers [19] Additional Important Information - **Risks**: - Potential risks include lower-than-expected data center revenue growth and new energy revenue outlook [24] - **Market Capitalization**: The market cap is Rmb28.4 billion (approximately $4.0 billion) [5] - **Investment Rating**: The stock is rated as a Buy, with a potential upside of 14% [2][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Shenzhen Kstar Science & Tech, highlighting its growth prospects, financial forecasts, and market positioning within the electric power conversion technology sector.