One of the best examples of misrepresentation and misunderstanding comes from using the wrong references when valuing assets.This is the Dutch stock market vs. the M2 Supply.It's still down 70% from its all-time high.The same can be seen in Gold and other assets as well.The difference is: the chart vs. USD is printing new ATHs. However, analyzing based on that can not be very clear.That's why I try to focus on these reference parameters, and they clearly show there's no recession or bear market on the horiz ...

If you make a token of a real stock, and the company gets destroyed in a fire tomorrow, you still have the same stock.Because the token still exists and is in limited supply just as before. Nothing has changed.What tokens are doing to the concept of asset, few understand. ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is currently viewed as an expensive asset in historical terms, indicating a potential market correction phase [1] Market Analysis - The S&P 500 index has experienced a correction of nearly 5% from its recent highs, suggesting a slowdown typical of the last bullish phase [1]

美联储理事Cook：对冲基金在美国国债市场的表现可能是一个潜在风险。金融系统仍然具有韧性，但 必须留意风险。私人信用、资产估值都可能具有脆弱性。 ...

Core Insights - Investor concerns about high valuations are leading to market restraint but not alarm [1] - High valuations are associated with lower expected returns and higher risks, prompting a shift away from expensive stocks [2] - The GMO Dynamic Allocation ETF (GMOD) aims to navigate these valuation concerns by reallocating into asset classes with higher expected returns [2][3] Investment Strategy - The fund, co-founded by Jeremy Grantham, is based on the principle that asset classes revert to historical means, with a seven-year return forecast [3] - As of the end of September, U.S. large- and small-cap stocks are projected to deliver negative returns, influencing the fund's underweighting in U.S. stocks [4] - The fund currently holds approximately 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, focusing on quality and value stocks, particularly in Japan and emerging markets [6][9] Market Outlook - The current market is not as overvalued as in 2007 or 2008, allowing for full investment while avoiding the most expensive segments [8] - Growth stocks, especially in AI, are seen as overvalued, while value stocks in the U.S. are trading at significant discounts [9] - Japan is highlighted as an attractive market due to improving returns on capital and favorable exchange rates for U.S. investors [15][16] Fixed Income Perspective - The role of fixed income is to provide income and protection during economic downturns, with current yields on 10-year Treasuries between 1.5% and 2% being acceptable [12][13] - If equity markets decline significantly, it is expected that fixed-income yields would also fall, making equities appear cheaper relative to fixed income [18]

Market Valuation - Bitcoin's valuation reached approximately $123,000, matching 1 Kg of Gold [1] - It took 5,000 years for gold to reach that price point, while Bitcoin achieved it in 16 years [1] Asset Comparison - The value of 1 Kg of Gold is now equivalent to 1 BTC [1]