Vi e w p o i n t | 16 Nov 2025 10:21:02 ET │ 11 pages China Banks What's New from Citi 2025 China Conference CITI'S TAKE We hosted meetings with key China banks during our Citi China Conference during 11-14 Nov in Shenzhen and Shanghai. We summarize key takeaways below. NIM to diverge between big banks and regional banks in 2026E — NIM pressure could continue to moderate into 4Q25E given most banks have achieved 90%+ of full-year loan quota, which cools off pricing competition, although sector NIM should co ...

Key Takeaways MELI's fast-growing credit portfolio is reshaping its risk exposure across core markets. MELI's slipping NIMAL highlight pressure from rapid, capital-intensive loan expansion.MercadoLibre faces added risk strain as Sea Limited and Nu Holdings intensify regional credit competition.MercadoLibre’s (MELI) Mercado Pago division has transformed from a payment platform into a large-scale lender, reshaping the company’s overall risk exposure. In 2025, Mercado Pago accelerated loan deployment sharply, ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks SBIC & Commercial Finance industry provides financing to small and mid-sized privately held firms, often underserved by traditional banks, focusing on those in financial distress [3] - The industry offers customized financing solutions, including senior debt instruments and mezzanine loans, for various business needs such as ownership changes and growth initiatives [3] Current Trends - Interest rates have been lowered by the Federal Reserve to a range of 3.75–4%, which is expected to compress margins and lower investment income due to the prevalence of floating-rate loans [4] - Despite the margin compression, lower rates are anticipated to drive demand for personalized financing and refinancing, potentially aiding investment income [2][4] Asset Quality - The industry has faced asset quality concerns post-COVID-19, but government stimulus and economic recovery have mitigated significant delinquency increases [5] - Prolonged high interest rates may lead to asset quality deterioration as borrowers struggle to service their debts, compounded by geopolitical risks [6] Regulatory Environment - The Small Business Credit Availability Act (SBCAA) amended the Investment Company Act of 1940, allowing increased leverage for SBIC companies, which enhances funding flexibility and growth opportunities [7] Industry Performance - The Zacks SBIC & Commercial Finance industry ranks 209, placing it in the bottom 14% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating underperformance in the near term [8][10] - Over the past year, the industry has collectively lost 13%, underperforming the S&P 500 and Zacks Finance sector, which gained 14.2% and 9.7%, respectively [12] Valuation Metrics - The industry has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 0.96X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 12.55X and the Zacks Finance sector's 5.62X, indicating a substantial discount [15] Notable Companies - **Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)**: A specialty finance firm focused on U.S. middle-market companies, with a market cap of $14.5 billion and a debt of $15.6 billion. The company has seen growth in investment income and is expected to continue this trend [19][18] - **Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)**: A specialty finance company providing venture capital, with a market cap of $3.3 million and a total investment portfolio valued at $4.31 billion. The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising demand for customized financing [23][22] - **Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY)**: Focused on providing senior secured loans to growth-stage companies, with a market cap of $357.4 million and a total investment portfolio valued at $946 million. The company is expected to sustain growth in investment income [28][27]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for Q3 2025 was $4 million, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.64, representing an increase of approximately 83% compared to the prior year quarter [4] - Adjusted EPS, considering mortgage servicing rights impairment, was $0.68 for the quarter [4] - Tangible book value per share increased to $17.21, up 4.4% from $16.49 last year, and up 8.9% excluding acquisition payment for Marblehead [4] - Net interest income totaled $12.3 million, a 21% increase from $10.2 million in Q3 2024 [4][19] - Total operating revenue increased to $16.6 million, a 15.9% rise from $14.3 million in the prior year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth was approximately $80.6 million, or 7.8%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential loan growth [5] - Deposits grew by nearly $103 million, or 9%, including $51 million related to Marblehead [5] - Mortgage originations for the quarter were $67.6 million, down from both the prior year and linked quarters [5][9] - Non-interest income increased by 2.9% from the prior year quarter to $4.2 million, driven by increased mortgage servicing rights and title service fees [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is preparing to enter a new market in Napoleon, Ohio, targeting $800 million in deposits [3] - The Columbus market has been a significant contributor to loan growth, representing 40% of total loan balances [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on disciplined lending, core deposit growth, and careful expense management [3] - Key initiatives include revenue growth and diversity, organic growth for efficiency, deepening client relationships, operational excellence, and maintaining top-tier asset quality [8] - The integration of Marblehead Bank is seen as a strategic move to enhance community ties and expand market presence [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the final quarter of 2025, anticipating further reductions by the Federal Reserve and potential mortgage volume expansion [27] - The company expects to maintain a loan growth rate of 7.8%, consistent with historical averages [12] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong asset quality metrics and targeting a reduction in non-performing assets [18] Other Important Information - Operating expenses decreased by approximately 3% from the linked quarter, with year-to-date expense growth at 9.5%, well below the 18.5% revenue growth [6][22] - The company repurchased 101,000 shares at an average price of just under $20, totaling nearly 252,000 shares repurchased this year [24][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss loan growth and recent hires? - Management highlighted the hiring of a seasoned agricultural lender and a replacement in the northern market, expecting growth opportunities in agriculture and urban markets [33][34] Question: What is the status of the pipeline of unfunded commitments? - Management indicated a healthy balance of unfunded commitments, with expectations to fund approximately $40 million in the next 6 to 12 months [37][40] Question: How will loan growth be funded in the next 6 to 12 months? - Management stated that available liquidity could be utilized for loan growth, but competitive pressures on deposit rates may impact margins [41][42] Question: What is the outlook for credit quality and reserve coverage? - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong credit quality metrics and indicated potential improvements in non-performing assets [47][50] Question: What is the expense outlook for the coming quarters? - Management expects total expenses to remain stable, with a projected $11.5 million in Q4, driven by increased mortgage volume [52][54] Question: What is the outlook for mortgage volume next year? - Management anticipates an increase in mortgage volume as rates decline, with a potential return to the $400 million range [56][58]

Core Insights - Waterstone Financial, Inc. (WSBF) shares increased by 5% following the earnings report for Q3 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.9% growth during the same period [1] - The company reported a net income of $7.9 million, a 67.6% increase from $4.7 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Net interest income rose to $14.7 million, reflecting a 28% year-over-year gain [2] Financial Performance - Earnings per share reached 45 cents, a substantial increase of 73.1% from 26 cents per share a year ago [2] - Return on average assets (ROAA) improved to 1.4% from 0.8% year-over-year [3] - Return on average equity (ROAE) increased to 9.1% from 5.6% in the prior-year quarter [3] - Book value per share rose to $18.65 from $17.53 at year-end 2024 [3] Asset Quality - Nonperforming assets as a percentage of total assets slightly increased to 0.27% from 0.25% year-over-year [4] - Past due loans as a percentage of total loans decreased to 0.5% from 0.6% a year earlier [4] Segment Performance Community Banking - Pre-tax income in the Community Banking segment was $8.4 million, a 49.4% increase from $5.6 million in Q3 2024 [5] - Net interest income in this segment rose 19.3% year-over-year to $14.6 million, driven by improved yields on loans and lower cost of funds [5] - The net interest margin expanded to 2.76% from 2.13% in the same period last year [5] - The segment recorded a negative provision for credit losses of $0.1 million, indicating continued credit strength [6] - Efficiency ratio improved to 48.9% from 60.4% in the prior-year quarter [6] Mortgage Banking - Mortgage Banking generated pre-tax income of $1.3 million, up from $0.1 million in the prior-year quarter [7] - Loan originations declined by 3.5% to $539.4 million, but improved gross margins on loans sold and reduced compensation costs boosted profitability [7] - Non-interest income in this segment slightly decreased to $21 million from $21.4 million [7] Management Commentary - CEO William Bruss attributed strong quarterly results to enhanced net interest margin and ongoing asset quality strength [8] - Both Community and Mortgage Banking segments contributed to year-over-year earnings improvement [8] - The increase in book value per share was due to robust earnings, share repurchases, and favorable valuation adjustments [8] Factors Influencing Results - Positive net income growth was driven by higher interest income on loans, margin expansion, and controlled operating expenses [9] - A lower cost of borrowings and deposits enhanced the net interest margin [9] - Mortgage operations benefited from tighter expense management and slightly higher loan sale margins [10] - Community banking saw strength in deposit growth and interest income [10] Other Developments - During the quarter, the company repurchased approximately 270,000 shares at a cost of $3.8 million, contributing to a 61-cent increase in book value per share [11] - The company declared a quarterly dividend of 15 cents per share [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for Q3 2025 totaled $31 million, up 28% year over year from $24 million in the same quarter last year, and improved from a net loss of $28 million in Q2 2025 [5][6] - Net interest income reached $127 million for Q3 2025, an increase of 8% from the prior quarter and up 21% from Q3 2024 [10] - Net interest margin expanded by 20 basis points to 2.89% for Q3 2025, compared to 2.69% in the previous quarter [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth was observed across all major segments: commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and residential mortgage loans [7] - Gross loans totaled $14.6 billion, up 1.2% quarter over quarter, equivalent to 5% annualized growth [8] - Non-interest income showed quarter-over-quarter growth in service fees, international banking fees, foreign exchange, and wire transfer fees [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposits totaled $15.8 billion as of September 30, 2025, reflecting a 1% decrease from $15.9 billion as of June 30, primarily due to a reduction in brokered deposits [8] - Non-interest-bearing deposits increased to $3.5 billion, up 1% quarter over quarter [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strengthening its deposit franchise and deepening primary banking relationships while optimizing deposit costs [8] - Continued investments in talent are aimed at driving sustainable growth and enhancing corporate and commercial banking capabilities [9] - The company anticipates high single-digit loan growth for 2025 and expects net interest income growth of approximately 10% [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's position to drive profitable growth and create long-term value for shareholders [15] - The company is well-positioned to navigate an evolving macroeconomic environment with improved asset quality and capital ratios [7][8] Other Important Information - The board declared a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.14 per share, payable on November 21, 2025 [8] - The provision for credit losses was $9 million for Q3 2025, down from $15 million in Q2 2025, reflecting lower net charge-offs [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the spot rate on deposits? - The spot rate for total deposits at the end of September was 2.82%, and for interest-bearing deposits, it was 3.62% [19] Question: Any updates on Territorial Bancorp's integration? - The company is focusing on stabilizing and expanding operations post-acquisition, with incremental cost savings being realized [22] Question: What was the purchase accounting impact this quarter? - The loan accretion for this quarter was $5 million [25][26] Question: How much in CDs are maturing in the fourth quarter? - There are $2.3 billion of CDs maturing at an average rate of 4.08% [32][34] Question: How is the company managing loan growth amid potential rate decreases? - The company has a strong loan pipeline going into Q4 and expects to maintain loan growth despite seasonal slowdowns [52]

Core Insights - Waterstone Financial, Inc. reported a net income of $7.9 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, representing a significant increase from $4.7 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, for the same quarter in 2024 [1][4][17] - The company achieved a consolidated return on average assets of 1.42% and a return on average equity of 9.14% for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, compared to 0.83% and 5.55% respectively for the same quarter in 2024 [4][18] - The Community Banking segment saw a 19.3% increase in net interest income, totaling $14.6 million for the quarter, driven by improved loan yields and reduced funding costs [2][4][21] Financial Performance - Consolidated net income increased by $3.2 million, or 68.1%, from the previous year [4] - Pre-tax income for the quarter was $8.4 million, a 49.4% increase compared to $5.6 million for the same quarter in 2024 [4][17] - The company repurchased approximately 270,000 shares at a cost of $3.8 million, increasing book value per share by $0.07 during the quarter [4][10] Asset Quality - Nonperforming assets as a percentage of total assets decreased to 0.27% at September 30, 2025, down from 0.25% a year earlier [4][18] - Past due loans as a percentage of total loans improved to 0.50% from 0.63% year-over-year [4][18] Community Banking Segment - The Community Banking segment's net interest income rose by $2.4 million, or 19.3%, compared to the same quarter in 2024 [2][21] - The efficiency ratio improved to 48.94% for the quarter, down from 60.35% in the same quarter of the previous year [10][21] Mortgage Banking Segment - The Mortgage Banking segment recorded a second consecutive quarter of pre-tax income, attributed to effective expense management and improved margins [2][23] - Mortgage banking non-interest income decreased by $401,000, or 1.9%, to $21.0 million compared to the same quarter in 2024 [10][23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for Q3 2025 was $22.1 million or $0.73 per diluted share, compared to $15.1 million and $0.50 in Q2 2025, primarily due to higher net interest income and a decrease in credit loss expense [7][20] - Return on average assets was 1.12% and return on average equity was 10.69% [7] - Pre-provision net revenues increased 16.4% to $33.1 million, demonstrating the strength of the core business [7][20] - Net interest margin expanded by 15 basis points to 3.22%, driven by higher average yields on loans and lower funding costs [8][20] - Total loans increased to $6.53 billion, a 3.5% increase on a linked quarter basis, with loan production up 73% to $571 million [8][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial loans were a key contributor to total loan production, reflecting investments in commercial lending teams and strategic expansion [6] - C&I loan production reached $211 million, an increase of 296% from the prior quarter, driven by investments in C&I teams and the USKC initiative [16] - CRE production was $177 million, up 58% from the prior quarter, maintaining a healthy loan-to-value ratio of approximately 47.7% [15] - Residential mortgage loan production was $103 million, up 23% from the previous quarter [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposits increased by 0.6% in Q3 2025, driven by new commercial accounts and contributions from new branches [10][18] - Non-interest bearing demand deposits remained stable at approximately 31% of total deposits [10][19] - USKC loan balances increased by 8.2% to $910 million, representing approximately 14% of the total loan portfolio [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive loan growth in the mid-single digit range, up from a previous forecast of low to mid-single digit growth [13] - Strategic initiatives include scaling C&I, residential, and SBA loan portfolios, broadening the core deposit base, and maintaining solid credit metrics [13] - The company is optimistic about long-term growth potential from the USKC initiative, focusing on relationships with US subsidiaries of Korean companies [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining strong momentum into Q4 2025, supported by strategic initiatives and a solid liquidity position [13] - The current macro environment is evolving, but management remains optimistic about growth opportunities [11][12] - The company has a proactive approach to credit management, which has resulted in improved asset quality [8][24] Other Important Information - The efficiency ratio improved to a two-year low of 52.65% [10][20] - The company repurchased 199,698 common shares at a weighted average price of $23.45 during the quarter [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Loan growth expectations for Q4 - Management indicated that net loan growth is influenced by production and payoffs, with a similar pipeline expected for Q4 [32][34] Question: Credit quality outlook - Management emphasized a comprehensive approach to managing the loan portfolio, maintaining clean asset quality, and monitoring mortgage and SBA loans closely [36][38] Question: Funding and balance sheet considerations - Management acknowledged the need for deposit growth to support loan growth and maintain net interest margin expansion [40] Question: Competition in lending and deposit markets - Management noted increased competition in both lending and deposit markets but believes it is manageable [49] Question: Share repurchase activity - Management confirmed that the Board will evaluate share repurchases each quarter, with expectations for continued activity [50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a mixed bag on asset quality, with three loans migrating to substandard categories and a couple of charge-offs, but overall asset quality remained stable [7][10][12] - The largest foreclosed asset, Lincoln Yards Land in Chicago, was sold at book value, contributing positively to the asset resolution efforts [8] - Combined special mention, substandard, and foreclosed assets decreased modestly during the quarter, indicating stable asset quality [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The residential real estate sector, particularly multifamily and condos, performed well, while office and industrial sectors showed continued absorption and leasing activity [12][13] - The company experienced record origination growth in the Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) segment, with nearly two dozen new relationships established [30] - The CIB group is expected to grow significantly, contributing to a more balanced loan portfolio in the future [22][42] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The commercial real estate (CRE) market is seeing a flight to quality, with high demand for Class A office spaces, while lower quality projects are taking longer to lease [12][13] - The infusion of liquidity into the CRE space is evident from record levels of paydowns, indicating a growing willingness among sponsors to refinance [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to diversify its loan portfolio, with expectations that CIB will rival the legacy RESG segment in volume over the next several years [22][42] - The focus is on optimizing capital allocation and improving utilization rates in the CIB segment to enhance returns for shareholders [24][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about loan growth in 2027, anticipating a shift from high levels of payoffs in 2025 and 2026 to positive contributions from RESG [21][22] - The company is closely monitoring the credit quality of its portfolio, with a strong emphasis on sponsor support to mitigate risks [59][60] Other Important Information - The company is actively rebalancing its legacy books to improve capital efficiency and returns [26] - The management highlighted the importance of thorough underwriting practices, especially in the lender finance space, to mitigate risks associated with recent market volatility [33][39] Q&A Session Summary Question: Commentary on real estate market absorption trends - Management noted that absorption is improving across various real estate classes, with a focus on high-quality assets [4][12] Question: Insights on CIB portfolio and recent headlines - The CIB segment saw record origination growth, with a focus on diversification and maintaining a conservative approach to underwriting [30][32] Question: Expectations for loan origination volumes - Management indicated that the low origination volume in the last quarter was likely an anomaly, with expectations for a return to typical levels in the upcoming quarter [68] Question: Impact of Fed rate cuts on margins - Management explained that there is typically a lag in margin stabilization following Fed cuts, with expectations for a couple of quarters of compressed margins [46][48] Question: Future growth outlook for EPS and net income - Management expects record net interest income and EPS in the coming year, with significant growth anticipated in 2027 [49][50]

Core Insights - Capital One (COF) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 21, with revenues anticipated to rise year-over-year, while earnings are likely to decline [1][10]. Financial Performance - In Q2, COF's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, supported by the Discover Financial acquisition, increased net interest income (NII), and improved loan balances, despite rising expenses and provisions [2]. - COF has a strong earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 23.02% [3]. Key Factors for Q3 Earnings - The lending environment improved in Q3 due to clarity on macro issues, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total average earning assets at $577.1 billion, reflecting a 9.9% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - NII is projected to grow sequentially by 19.7% to $11.96 billion, driven by loan growth and stable rates [6]. - Interchange fees, which make up over 60% of fee income, are expected to rise by 23.5% sequentially to $1.82 billion due to increased card usage [7]. - Total non-interest income is estimated to surge by 19.2% to $2.98 billion, with service charges and other customer-related fees expected to grow by 20.5% to $792.4 million [8][9]. Expenses and Asset Quality - Total non-interest expenses are anticipated to rise by 32.5% to $8.26 billion, influenced by higher marketing costs, technology investments, and the Discover Financial acquisition [9]. - Provisions for credit losses are estimated at $3.51 billion, reflecting concerns over potential delinquent loans amid rising loan balances [11]. Earnings Expectations - The likelihood of COF beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is high, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.62% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [12][13]. - The consensus estimate for Q3 earnings is $4.23, indicating a 6.2% decline from the prior year, while sales are expected to jump by 48.8% to $14.9 billion [13].