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Carvana Faces Subprime Fears But Analyst See Little Risk To Growth
Benzingaยท 2025-10-10 18:28
Core Viewpoint - Carvana is navigating scrutiny over its subprime financing but is well-positioned to manage potential losses due to rising used-car prices and resilient securitization structures, maintaining a growth trajectory [1] Financing Exposure - The bankruptcy of subprime lender Tricolor and CarMax's increased reserves have heightened interest in Carvana's financing exposure [2] - Investors are closely examining Carvana's auto loan performance, particularly delinquency and cumulative net loss rates [3] Securitization Analysis - BTIG's analysis indicates that none of Carvana's 14 subprime asset-backed securities (ABS) issuances since 2019 are at risk of impairment, despite cumulative net losses exceeding initial projections by over 500 basis points [4] - Future excess spread income can provide additional credit enhancement to securitizations, mitigating principal loss risks [5] Stress Cases and Resilience - BTIG outlined three stress scenarios indicating resilience, suggesting that even if equity tranches incur losses, their internal rate of return could remain positive [6] - Market access is likely intact even if impairments occur, as other issuers have continued securitizations despite similar credit events [6] Financial Projections - An estimated 13% hit to adjusted EBITDA from increased credit enhancement would still leave Carvana's margins approximately double those of traditional dealers [7] - BTIG projects fiscal year 2025 revenue at $18.97 billion, up from $13.67 billion in fiscal year 2024, and expects further growth to $24.03 billion in fiscal year 2026 [9] Business Model and Market Position - Carvana's vertically integrated model supports growth and profitability despite holding only a 1% share of the used car market [8] - Tariff-driven pricing benefits and expansion into franchise and adjacent markets could enhance Carvana's market reach [8]
X @Ivan on Tech ๐ณ๐๐ฐ
Ivan on Tech ๐ณ๐๐ฐยท 2025-07-31 18:56
Solana's Vision - Solana aims to host every asset and market on a single, globally distributed state machine, synchronized at the speed of light [2] - Solana envisions the emergence of internet capital markets [2] Market Scope - Solana targets a wide array of financial instruments, including stocks, bonds, lending, money markets, foreign exchange, commodities, derivatives, private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, real estate investment trusts, asset-backed securities, municipal bonds, treasury securities, corporate bonds, convertible bonds, preferred stocks, common stocks, options, futures, swaps, credit default swaps, mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, index funds, closed-end funds, unit investment trusts, American depositary receipts, global depositary receipts, warrants, rights offerings, initial public offerings, secondary offerings, private placements, repurchase agreements, commercial paper, certificates of deposit, banker's acceptances, Eurodollars, currency forwards, interest rate swaps, equity swaps, total return swaps, structured products, contingent convertible bonds, green bonds, Sukuk, catastrophe bonds, inflation-protected securities, zero-coupon bonds, and floating rate notes [1]