Market Overview - In December 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 2.296 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, but a month-on-month increase of 3%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year amounted to 23.779 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [1][5] - The wholesale volume for passenger cars in December 2025 was 2.759 million units, down 10% year-on-year and down 8% month-on-month. The cumulative wholesale for the year was 29.524 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 9% [1][8] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Performance - Retail sales of new energy vehicles in December 2025 reached 1.387 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 5%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year were 12.859 million units, up 18% year-on-year [1][5] - The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles in December was 1.554 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3% but a month-on-month decrease of 9%. The cumulative wholesale for the year was 15.31 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25% [1][5] Production Trends - In the first four weeks of December, the production of pure fuel light vehicles was 905,000 units, down 29% year-on-year and down 16% month-on-month. The production of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles totaled 525,000 units, down 26% year-on-year and down 21% month-on-month [2] Weekly Sales Trends - The average daily retail sales for the first week of December were 42,000 units, down 32% year-on-year and down 8% month-on-month. The second week saw an average of 67,000 units, down 17% year-on-year but up 9% month-on-month. The third week recorded 77,000 units, down 11% year-on-year and up 9% month-on-month. The fourth week had 90,000 units, down 12% year-on-year and down 15% month-on-month. The fifth week experienced a surge to 123,000 units, up 17% year-on-year and up 2% month-on-month [4][5] Policy Impact - The tightening of trade-in and scrapping subsidy policies has led to a cautious attitude among dealers, contributing to a decline in retail sales in November. However, the release of the new subsidy policy for 2026 is expected to stimulate demand and support a strong start in January 2026 [6][11] Global Market Share - In the first eleven months of 2025, China accounted for 68.4% of the global market share for new energy passenger vehicles, with a significant contribution to the global increase in sales [12][13]

Summary of NIO Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. (Ticker: 9866.HK) - **Industry**: China Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: Rmb132,183 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$34.80 (as of July 31, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$45.80, indicating a 32% upside potential [5][5][5] Key Product Launch - **Product**: Onvo L90 - **Launch Date**: July 31, 2025 - **Price Range**: Rmb265.8k - 299.8k - **Configuration**: 6-seat, 2+2+2 layout aimed at a broader customer base - **Features**: Spacious cabin, AR-HUD, L2+ smart driving based on Nvidia Orin-X - **Market Reaction**: Initial pricing exceeded expectations, with the Ultra version priced below Rmb300k being a positive surprise [2][2][2] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - **Stock Performance**: NIO H-shares rose 27% in July, outperforming the HSI which rose 2.9% - **Market Sentiment**: Despite positive pre-order intake for the Onvo L90, fragile market sentiment may lead to profit-taking post-launch - **Volatility**: Ongoing tug-of-war between onshore bulls and offshore bears expected to keep stock volatile until clarity on order conversion and delivery ramp-up in August-September [3][3][3] Financial Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: - FY 2024: Rmb65,731 million - FY 2025: Rmb114,167 million - FY 2026: Rmb144,834 million - FY 2027: Rmb180,853 million - **EPS Estimates**: - FY 2024: (Rmb11.03) - FY 2025: (Rmb5.70) - FY 2026: (Rmb7.93) - FY 2027: (Rmb2.57) [5][5][5] Valuation Methodology - **WACC**: 18.7% - **Beta**: 2.4 - **Long-term Growth Rate**: 3% - **Valuation Scenarios**: 25%/50%/25% weightings for bull/base/bear cases reflecting macro outlook and sector competition [9][10][10] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Introduction of a mass market brand - Stronger-than-expected sales volume - Improvements in operating efficiency - **Downside Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected sales volume - Lack of efficiency improvements - Moderating auto sales growth impacting overall industry valuations [12][12][12] Conclusion - NIO Inc. is positioned for potential growth with the launch of the Onvo L90, but market volatility and execution risks remain significant factors to monitor. The financial outlook shows a path towards revenue growth, albeit with projected losses in the near term. Investors should remain cautious and attentive to market reactions and operational performance in the coming months.