Ryder System (NYSE:R) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 23, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsRobert Sanchez - Chairman and CEOJohn Diez - President and COOSteve Sensing - President, Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation SolutionsCristina Gallo-Aquino - EVP and CFOTom Havens - PresidentJordan Alliger - Managing DirectorCalene Candela - Vice President, Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsHarrison Bauer - Research AnalystNone - AnalystBrian Ossenbeck - Managing Director and Senior Equit ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ryder reported operating revenue of $2.6 billion in Q3 2025, up 1% from the prior year, primarily due to contractual revenue growth in Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) and Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) [13] - Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.57, up 4% from $3.44 in the prior year, reflecting higher contractual earnings and benefits from share repurchases [13] - Return on equity (ROE) was 17%, up from the prior year, driven by higher contractual earnings and share repurchases, partially offset by lower rental demand and used vehicle sales [14] - Year-to-date free cash flow increased to $496 million from $218 million in the prior year due to reduced capital expenditures and lower income tax payments [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fleet Management Solutions operating revenue was in line with the prior year, with pretax earnings of $146 million, up year-over-year due to higher ChoiceLease performance, offset by lower used vehicle sales and rental results [14][15] - Supply Chain operating revenue increased 4%, driven by new business in omni-channel retail, but earnings decreased 8% due to e-commerce network performance and higher medical costs [19] - Dedicated operating revenue decreased 6% due to lower fleet count, but earnings before tax (EBT) was in line with the prior year, reflecting acquisition synergies [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that 93% of its revenue is generated in the U.S., positioning it well to benefit from increased domestic industrial manufacturing [6] - Rental demand was lower than historical seasonal trends, with rental utilization on the power fleet at 70%, down from 71% in the prior year [15] - Used vehicle pricing saw a year-over-year decline of 6% for tractors and 15% for trucks, although sequential pricing for trucks increased by 7% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ryder is focused on creating value through operational excellence and investment in customer-centric technology, aiming for earnings growth driven by resilient contractual businesses and strategic initiatives [5][6] - The company expects its transformed business model to deliver ROE in the low to mid-20s when market conditions improve, with over 90% of operating revenue generated by multiyear contracts [7] - A new discretionary $2 billion share repurchase program was authorized, reflecting the company's commitment to disciplined capital allocation [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to outperform prior cycles, citing a strong foundation from its transformed business model [8] - The outlook for 2025 includes a comparable EPS forecast of $12.85 to $13.05, driven by higher contractual earnings and benefits from strategic initiatives [29] - Management acknowledged ongoing headwinds from the freight market downturn but remains optimistic about robust sales and pipeline activity in SCS [29][30] Other Important Information - The company has returned $457 million to shareholders in 2025 through share repurchases and dividends, with a 57% increase in the quarterly dividend since 2021 [9] - The forecast for free cash flow remains unchanged at $900 million to $1 billion, reflecting lower capital expenditures and an estimated annual benefit of $200 million from tax bonus depreciation [10][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of CDL regulations on the business model - Management indicated that tighter driver markets could benefit the dedicated business as companies seek assistance in driver recruitment, with minimal impact expected on the lease side [38][40] Question: Drivers of earnings growth for next year - Management expects contractual earnings growth and strong performance in supply chain to drive revenue and earnings growth, despite muted sales in lease and dedicated due to freight market softness [42][45] Question: Used vehicle pricing and tariffs - Management noted that any price increases would likely be passed through to lease rates, and higher new truck pricing could eventually support used truck prices [52][56] Question: Supply Chain Solutions headwinds - Management acknowledged temporary headwinds in e-commerce network performance but remains optimistic about future growth and margin targets [65][66] Question: Bonus depreciation impact - The bonus depreciation is expected to provide a cash tax benefit of approximately $200 million annually, with no significant impact on operating margins [84][86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ryder reported operating revenue of $2.6 billion in Q3 2025, up 1% from the prior year, primarily due to growth in contractual revenue [11] - Comparable EPS from continuing operations increased to $3.57, up 4% from $3.44 in the prior year, reflecting higher contractual earnings and benefits from share repurchases [11] - Return on equity (ROE) was 17%, up from the prior year, driven by higher contractual earnings and share repurchases, partially offset by lower rental demand and used vehicle sales [11] - Year-to-date free cash flow increased to $496 million from $218 million in the prior year due to reduced capital expenditures and lower income tax payments [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) operating revenue was in line with the prior year, with pre-tax earnings of $146 million, reflecting higher ChoiceLease performance [12] - Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) operating revenue increased 4%, driven by new business in omnichannel retail, but earnings decreased 8% due to e-commerce network performance and higher medical costs [15] - Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS) operating revenue decreased 6% due to lower fleet count, but EBT was in line with the prior year, reflecting acquisition synergies [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 93% of Ryder's revenue is generated in the U.S., positioning the company to benefit from increased domestic industrial manufacturing [5] - The rental demand was lower than historical seasonal trends, with rental utilization on the power fleet at 70%, down from 71% the prior year [12] - Used vehicle pricing declined 6% for tractors and 15% for trucks year-over-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in market conditions [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ryder's balanced growth strategy focuses on operational excellence and investment in customer-centric technology, aiming to improve full-cycle returns and unlock long-term shareholder value [5] - The company expects earnings growth in 2025 driven by resilient contractual businesses and strategic initiatives, with a forecasted ROE of 17% [22] - Ryder has authorized a new discretionary share repurchase program, reflecting a commitment to disciplined capital allocation [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's cycle-tested business model, which has demonstrated resiliency during the freight cycle downturn [6] - The company anticipates continued earnings growth from multi-year strategic initiatives, with expected annual pre-tax earnings benefits of approximately $150 million [24] - Management noted that while there are near-term headwinds in lease and dedicated sales due to market conditions, robust sales activity in SCS is encouraging [22] Other Important Information - Ryder's forecast for free cash flow remains unchanged at $900 million to $1 billion, reflecting lower capital spending and an annual cash flow benefit of approximately $200 million from tax bonus depreciation [8] - The company has repurchased approximately 22% of its shares outstanding since 2021 and increased the quarterly dividend by 57% [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of CDL regulations on business model - Management indicated that tighter driver markets could benefit the dedicated business as companies seek assistance in driver recruitment [30][32] Question: Drivers of earnings growth for 2026 - Management expects contractual earnings growth and benefits from strategic initiatives to drive earnings growth, with strong performance anticipated in supply chain solutions [34][35] Question: Challenges in used vehicle pricing - Management acknowledged challenges in used vehicle pricing but noted that higher new truck pricing could eventually support used truck values [39][40] Question: Supply chain performance and headwinds - Management highlighted that recent headwinds in supply chain performance were temporary and attributed to specific customer issues, with expectations for recovery [49][50] Question: Bonus depreciation impact on financials - Management clarified that the bonus depreciation will provide a cash tax benefit of approximately $200 million annually, with no significant impact on operating margins [61][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported operating revenue of $2.6 billion in the second quarter, up 2% from the prior year, primarily due to contractual revenue growth in Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) and Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) [14] - Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.32, an 11% increase from $3 in the prior year, reflecting higher contractual earnings and share repurchases [14] - Return on equity (ROE) was 17%, up from the prior year, primarily due to higher contractual earnings [15] - Year-to-date free cash flow increased to $461 million from $71 million in the prior year, reflecting lower working capital needs and reduced capital expenditures [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Fleet Management Solutions (FMS)**: Operating revenue increased by 1%, driven by ChoiceLease revenue, which was up 2%. However, pretax earnings in fleet management were $126 million, down year-over-year due to weaker freight market conditions [16] - **Supply Chain Solutions (SCS)**: Operating revenue increased by 3%, driven by new business and higher customer volumes and pricing. Earnings increased by 16% from the prior year, reflecting operating revenue growth and improved performance from initiatives [21] - **Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS)**: Operating revenue decreased by 3% due to lower fleet count, but EBT increased by 1% year-over-year, reflecting acquisition synergies [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects its transformed business model to continue outperforming prior cycles, with 60% of 2025 revenue expected to come from asset-light businesses compared to 44% in 2018 [12] - Used vehicle sales results were negatively impacted by increased wholesale volumes to manage aged inventory, with used tractor and truck pricing both declining 17% year-over-year [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its balanced growth strategy, which includes organic growth, strategic acquisitions, and innovative technology [12] - The company announced a 12% annualized increase to its quarterly dividend, reflecting higher profitability and improved returns over the cycle [10] - The company aims to leverage the momentum of its transformed business model to support profitable growth and return capital to shareholders [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate the current freight downturn and highlighted strong sales and pipeline activity in SCS [30] - The company revised its full-year 2025 comparable EPS forecast to a range of $12.85 to $13.30, reflecting higher contractual earnings and benefits from strategic initiatives [30] - Management noted that while sales pipelines remain strong, prolonged freight downturn and economic uncertainty continue to cause some customers to delay decisions [30] Other Important Information - The company expects to generate approximately $3.5 billion of incremental debt capacity over the next three years, resulting in $14 billion available for capital deployment [28] - The company has repurchased approximately 21% of its shares outstanding since 2021 and increased the quarterly dividend by 57% [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in deploying dry powder on the balance sheet - Management feels confident about deploying capital for share repurchase programs and acquisitions, indicating a balanced approach to capital allocation [41][42] Question: Used vehicle pricing expectations - Management expects tractor pricing to continue to increase, with a steady upward trend anticipated, especially in the fourth quarter [44][45] Question: Losses on sales in Q2 and expectations for Q3 - Losses were driven by incremental wholesaling activity of aged inventory, with expectations for a return to gains in Q3 as wholesaling activity decreases [48][49] Question: OEM delays and CapEx changes - Management anticipates that OEM delays will reverse in 2026, with increased capital spending expected as the freight market stabilizes [66][67] Question: Maintenance growth outlook - Management is focusing on mobile maintenance initiatives and sees potential for growth in retail maintenance services, despite traditional maintenance offerings being stagnant [100][103]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ryder reported operating revenue of $2.6 billion for Q2 2025, an increase of 2% from the prior year, primarily driven by contractual revenue growth in Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) and Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) [13] - Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.32, up 11% from $3 in the prior year, reflecting higher contractual earnings and share repurchases [13] - Return on equity (ROE) was 17%, up from the prior year, primarily due to higher contractual earnings [14] - Year-to-date free cash flow increased to $461 million from $71 million in the prior year, reflecting lower working capital needs and reduced capital expenditures [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Fleet Management Solutions (FMS)**: Operating revenue increased by 1%, driven by ChoiceLease revenue, which was up 2%. However, pretax earnings decreased to $126 million due to weaker freight market conditions [15] - **Supply Chain Solutions (SCS)**: Operating revenue increased by 3%, with earnings up 16% from the prior year, reflecting new business and improved performance from initiatives to optimize the omnichannel retail network [21] - **Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS)**: Operating revenue decreased by 3% due to lower fleet count, but earnings before tax (EBT) increased by 1% year-over-year, reflecting acquisition synergies [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. market remains a significant focus, generating 93% of Ryder's revenue, with expectations of benefiting from increased industrial manufacturing [6] - Used vehicle sales results were negatively impacted by increased wholesale volumes, with used tractor and truck pricing declining by 17% year-over-year [18] - Rental utilization on the power fleet was 70%, up from 69% in the prior year, although still below the target range [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ryder's balanced growth strategy aims to derisk the business, increase return profiles, and accelerate growth in asset-light supply chain and dedicated businesses [4] - The company expects to continue leveraging its transformed business model to outperform prior cycles, with a focus on organic growth, strategic acquisitions, and innovative technology [11] - Ryder announced a 12% annualized increase to its quarterly dividend, reflecting higher profitability and improved returns [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the transformed business model, expecting to generate higher earnings and returns even in a freight cycle downturn [7] - The company anticipates a more muted recovery in used vehicle sales and ongoing challenges in the rental market due to economic uncertainty [29] - Management remains optimistic about robust sales and pipeline activity in SCS, despite near-term headwinds in lease and dedicated businesses [29] Other Important Information - Ryder increased its 2025 forecast for free cash flow to a range of $900 million to $1 billion, reflecting lower expected capital spending and the reinstatement of tax bonus depreciation [10] - The company has repurchased approximately 21% of its shares outstanding since 2021 and increased the quarterly dividend by 57% [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in deploying dry powder on the balance sheet - Management feels confident about deploying capital for share repurchase programs and acquisitions, with plans to invest organically as the freight market improves [40][41] Question: Used vehicle pricing expectations - Management expects a steady increase in tractor pricing, with retail pricing up 10%, although the overall increase may be more muted than initially expected [43][44] Question: Reasons for losses on sales in Q2 and recovery in Q3 - Losses were driven by increased wholesaling of aged inventory, which is not expected to continue at the same level, allowing for a return to gains in Q3 [47][48] Question: Impact of OEM delays on capital expenditures - Management anticipates that OEM delays will reverse in 2026, leading to increased capital spending as the freight market stabilizes [62][64] Question: Maintenance growth outlook - Management is focusing on mobile maintenance initiatives and retail maintenance offerings, which are expected to grow despite historical stagnation [96][99]