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中国电池材料:锂库存再次验证了强劲的电池需求-China Battery Materials_ Lithium into 3rd week of Oct – Lithium inventory re-validates robust battery demand
2025-10-19 15:58
Summary of Conference Call on China Battery Materials Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the lithium battery materials industry in China, particularly the demand and supply dynamics of lithium as of October 2025. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Lithium Production and Inventory Trends** - Weekly lithium output increased by 2%, with brine-based lithium output rising by 7% week-over-week (WoW) due to Zangge's brine resumption. Additionally, weekly lithium inventory decreased by 2% WoW [1][2] - The total inventory of Li2CO3 was reported at 132,658 tons, reflecting a 2% decrease WoW [2] 2. **Demand Indicators** - The cancellation of 12,213 units of lithium warehouse receipts in GFEX indicates strong on-the-ground battery demand in October [1] - Channel checks with ZE Consulting suggest that the production pipeline of the top five battery makers is expected to increase by 11% month-over-month (MoM) and 39% year-over-year (YoY) in October 2025 [1] 3. **Production Output Projections** - Lithium production output is projected to rise by 4% MoM, indicating a positive outlook for supply in the coming weeks [1] 4. **Price Stability** - Lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) average selling prices (ASP) remained largely stable, quoted at Rmb73,000/ton and Rmb73,100/ton respectively as of October 16, 2025 [2] 5. **Inventory Breakdown** - The inventory of downstream players, mainly cathode makers, decreased by 3% WoW to 57,735 tons, while smelters' inventory fell by 1% to 34,283 tons. Conversely, battery makers and traders saw a 1% increase in inventory to 40,640 tons [2] Important but Overlooked Content - **Key Catalysts to Monitor** - The approval progress for licenses at CATL's JXW mine and potential risks associated with disruptions at seven other mines in Yichun are critical factors to watch in the near term [1] - **Market Sentiment** - The overall sentiment in the lithium market appears to be bullish, driven by robust demand from battery manufacturers and stable production outputs, which may present investment opportunities in related sectors [1][2]