Flash | 10 Jul 2025 11:38:54 ET │ 9 pages China Battery Materials Lithium into 2nd week of Jul – Inventory of battery makers/traders continues going up CITI'S TAKE Inventory of others (mainly battery makers and traders) is continually going up by 6% WoW / +18% MoM to 41,430 tons. Key debates on this include: (1) why battery makers and traders would like to pile up lithium at this moment? and (2) will they re-deliver the lithium to warehouse in futures market ("二次交盘") after further processing? Our read is th ...

Flash | 26 Jun 2025 07:08:07 ET │ 11 pages China Battery Materials Lithium into 4th week of Jun – Client feedback on our lithium call CITI'S TAKE We called for a near-term lithium price bottom at the start of the month, and published 3M positive CW for Tianqi Lithium (see note). Most investors we've spoken to agree that the lithium price could already touch the near-term trough at Rmb60k/t, given most of the smelters are already likely loss making and there should be supply discipline to rebalance the marke ...

19 Jun 2025 05:24:15 ET │ 9 pages China Battery Materials Lithium into 3rd week of Jun – Market building surplus, low prices will pressure suppliers CITI'S TAKE Citi Commodity Team updated their 3Q25 lithium outlook this week (see report), downgrading 0-3mth price for SC6 spodumene to US$600/t (from US$700/t) and maintaining 0-3mth price target of US$7k/t for lithium salts – China carbonate (incl. VAT) and hydroxide CIF Asia. The updated balances suggest that the lithium market has been building large surpl ...

Flash | 12 Jun 2025 11:04:04 ET │ 9 pages China Battery Materials Lithium into 2nd week of Jun – If not now, when? CITI'S TAKE Lithium price stabilized and slightly rebounded by 1% during the week, after its free fall since the Liberation Day whereas QTD ASP was down by 13% QoQ. We reiterate that lithium price should touch the near-term trough and the upside risk here is higher than the downside one (see catalyst watch), as most of the lithium names should already be under loss-making, indicating the offlin ...

Flash | 05 Jun 2025 10:46:21 ET │ 13 pages China Battery Materials Lithium into 1st week of June – Supply is the key swing factor as of now CITI'S TAKE National "trade-in" subsidy has reportedly suspended in some provinces, earlier than expected vs est. end of 2025 (Sohu.com, 27-May). Though there should be downward pressure on NEV demand, we estimate impact will be relatively limited as (1) OEMs are offering another round of price discount, and (2) marginal impact of subsidy has been diminishing due to hig ...