Welcome back to the Crypto channel everyone. My name is Josh and right now Bitcoin is once again testing this crucial level of support on the daily time frame after just experiencing a harsh rejection and a failed to break out back above this crucial line in the short term. While the US stock market is continuing to dump in the short term, which is not good news for Bitcoin and crypto and right now in the short term, Ethereum is possibly forming a new signal that we need to pay attention to, but not yet con ...

Market Trend & Analysis - Bitcoin is in a strong bear market, indicated by bearish divergence from Summer [1] - Death cross confirmed, marking the first occurrence in this cycle [1] - Loss of EMA50W confirmed, also a first in the cycle [1] - Bitcoin respects 4 years cycle, indicating a BEAR market now [1] - Repeat of same 2021-2022 bearish fractal [1] Liquidity & Financial Health - Repo markets are empty, suggesting liquidity is at ZERO [1] - Banks liquidity is at Credit Suisse crash levels [1] - Japan (BOJ) is facing serious trouble with Repo failure [1] Investor Behavior - Retail investors are still holding, with no capitulation seen yet [1] - Retail investors are still believing in a bull market, buying the dips [1] - Stock insiders have been STRONG selling since August [1] Institutional Activity - Tons of liquidated trading firms from Oct 10 [1] - Tons of liquidated institutions from Oct 10 [1]

Core Insights - Zcash (ZEC) has shown significant price performance, rising over 17% in the last 24 hours and approximately 178% over the past month, despite a generally weak crypto market [1] - The price has confirmed a flag breakout and recently surpassed $438, with the next target set at $594 [1] Market Dynamics - Open interest in Zcash futures has reached a six-month high of $337 million, indicating aggressive long positions among traders [3] - On Binance, long liquidations amount to $30.27 million, significantly higher than short liquidations at $12.43 million, suggesting a market heavily skewed towards long positions [4] Potential Risks - The current market imbalance could lead to fragility in the rally, with a potential price pullback if ZEC falls below $450, and a more significant correction if it drops under $342 [5] - A bearish divergence has been observed, where ZEC's price has made higher highs while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed lower highs, indicating a potential loss of upward momentum [6][8] Positive Indicators - Despite the risks, large spot wallet inflows remain robust, with the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) at 0.13, indicating positive money inflows [9] - A rise above 0.14 in CMF would suggest increasing buyer dominance, while a break over 0.24 could indicate aggressive accumulation by whales [9]

Market Overview - The stock market has faced challenges this week, with the Spyder Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) both down 0.90% for the week, marking three consecutive days of decline, causing trader anxiety [2] - The S&P 500 advance/decline line closed below its EMA, indicating a corrective mode, with initial support reached and stronger support levels identified [4] Sentiment Analysis - The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported no change in bullish sentiment at 41.7%, while bearish sentiment decreased to 39.2% from 42.2% the previous week [2] - Historical data shows that the bull%-bear% reached a low of -30 during the SPY's bottoming phase in March-May, with expectations for a rise to the +20 area before a stronger correction [5] Bitcoin Market Insights - Bitcoin to US Dollar (BTCUSD) has experienced higher highs in 2025, testing yearly resistance at 124,723 in August before declining to the 20-week EMA at 109,559 [5] - A bearish divergence was confirmed in the MACDs at the end of August, indicating a potential for a deeper decline in BTCUSD [6] - Despite a positive reaction in the stock market to the PCE inflation report, BTCUSD remains down 5% for the week, with anticipated resistance in the 111,000-113,000 range for any potential rebound [7]

Technical Analysis - Bearish divergence observed in BNB 4H chart [1] - Price is making higher highs while RSI indicates lower highs [1] - Potential pullback is anticipated [1] Disclaimer - NFA (Not Financial Advice) [1]

Market Trend - Bitcoin dominance bearish divergence confirmed on the weekly timeframe [1] - Industry anticipates potential shifts following the bearish divergence [1]