Here to break down the chart in crude is Renaissance Macros's Jeff Degraphth. It's good to see you. Welcome back.Thanks, Scott. I mean, a remarkable trade when you consider what people were worried about and then in a couple of days how the reversal has taken place. It's pretty stunning.Yeah, it certainly is. Um, look, you had an overbought condition. Um, that overbought condition was driven by obviously fear and sentiment, but that was taking place in the whole context of a downtrend. And that downtrend's ...

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - Portfolio managers should consider selling the dollar due to an anticipated multiyear downtrend, similar to the post-Bretton Woods era in the 1970s [1] - Short rate strategies, particularly curve steepening, are advisable as long-end interest rates are expected to rise globally [2] - Defense stocks are recommended on the equity side, with further potential gains expected [2] Currency Dynamics - The dollar could potentially depreciate to 115 or even 140 within one to two years from its current level of 114 [3] - The speed of the potential dollar decline could mirror the 2002-2004 period, or even be more significant, reminiscent of the early 1970s [4] - Interest rate increases may reflect a risk premium concerning the dollar, behaving more like an emerging market dynamic [7] US Economy & International Order - Traditional cyclical dynamics in the US economy are becoming less relevant due to structural changes and international factors [6] - Tariffs and shifts in the international order need to be factored into US economic forecasts [6] - The Federal Reserve must understand how the changing international order will impact interest rates [6] - A weaker dollar is generally unfavorable, and no one would welcome a dollar at 140 [7][8]