Core Thesis - Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) is facing significant regulatory, legal, and financial challenges that cast doubt on its ability to restart pipeline operations in the near term [2][4][5]. Regulatory and Legal Challenges - SOC's Las Flores pipelines have been delayed repeatedly, with no oil flowing as of early 2026, despite initial expectations for a January 2024 restart [2]. - CEO Jim Flores' strategy for a stealth restart has been hindered by complex legal barriers, including federal consent decrees and state injunctions, as well as California SB 237, which mandates new coastal development permits for inactive pipelines [3]. - Federal safety approvals from PHMSA provide limited relief, as state authorities maintain control over essential environmental and coastal approvals [3]. Financial Situation - SOC is experiencing a severe financial crunch, having burned through substantial operating and capital expenditures despite a $250 million equity raise [4]. - Projections have been exceeded, and cash reserves are dwindling, raising concerns about the company's ability to secure additional funding before overcoming regulatory hurdles [4]. - Legal experts indicate that even successful litigation in federal court may not be sufficient to bypass entrenched state restrictions, leaving SOC in a precarious financial position [4]. Investment Outlook - Given the combination of depleted cash, missed deadlines, and challenging approvals, SOC's prospects appear bearish, making it a highly speculative investment with substantial downside risk [5]. - The stock price has depreciated by approximately 74.23% since a previous bullish thesis was published, highlighting the steep challenges facing the company [6].