We came across a bearish thesis on Patria Investments Limited on X.com by @SnowCapResearch. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on PAX. Patria Investments Limited's share was trading at $14.57 as of February 9th. PAX’s trailing and forward P/E were 20.91 and 8.14 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Investments, Finance Investments, Finance Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. PAX faces significant operational and financial concerns, leading the a ...

We came across a bearish thesis on Patria Investments Limited on X.com by @SnowCapResearch. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on PAX. Patria Investments Limited's share was trading at $14.57 as of February 9th. PAX’s trailing and forward P/E were 20.91 and 8.14 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Investments, Finance Investments, Finance Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. PAX faces significant operational and financial concerns, leading the a ...

Core Thesis - Flagstar Bank, National Association (FLG) is undergoing a significant turnaround following a period of severe balance sheet stress, with a current share price of $13.50 and a forward P/E of 7.75 [1][2]. Financial Challenges - The bank faced challenges primarily due to high exposure to rent-controlled multifamily properties and office loans, which deteriorated amid rising interest rates and weakening commercial real estate fundamentals [2]. Recapitalization Efforts - Flagstar raised over $1 billion in new capital last year to strengthen its balance sheet and address investor concerns regarding solvency and asset quality, marking a pivotal moment for the bank [3]. - A comprehensive management overhaul occurred, with Joseph Otting, the former Comptroller of the Currency, stepping in as CEO to lead the turnaround [3]. Strategic Actions - The new management team has actively worked to stabilize the bank by selling non-core assets to simplify operations and improve capital ratios, while the loan portfolio has been fully remarked to reflect impairments [4]. - These actions have reset expectations, alleviated uncertainty around hidden losses, and restored credibility with regulators and the market [5]. Earnings Outlook - With legacy issues recognized and addressed, Flagstar's earnings profile is beginning to improve, supported by a cleaner balance sheet and a more conservative risk posture [5]. - Despite progress, the stock trades at approximately 0.7x tangible book value, indicating a significant discount for a bank that has absorbed credit pain and recapitalized [6]. Market Positioning - As earnings normalize and confidence rebuilds, Flagstar is well-positioned for a valuation rerating towards peer banks that trade at or above book value [6]. - The current market pricing reflects an overly pessimistic view, creating an attractive risk-reward setup for investors willing to support the turnaround [8].

Core Thesis - T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. is positioned for growth due to a strategic partnership with Goldman Sachs, which aims to enhance its retirement asset management offerings and access to private market assets [2][3][4] Company Overview - T. Rowe Price's share price was $104.86 as of September 17th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 11.74 and 10.93 respectively [1] - The company currently offers a dividend yield of 4.8%, making it attractive for income-focused investors [4] Strategic Partnership - The partnership with Goldman Sachs involves co-branded funds and retirement strategies, leveraging T. Rowe Price's asset management platform [2] - Goldman Sachs plans to acquire up to 3.5% of T. Rowe Price's stock, potentially representing a $1 billion investment [3] Market Positioning - The partnership positions both firms to capitalize on the growing trend of integrating alternative assets into retirement plans, enhancing competitiveness in the asset management space [3] - Post-transaction, insiders and institutional investors are expected to control over 87% of T. Rowe Price's float, which may create a structural floor under the stock [3] Investment Outlook - The deal is seen as a meaningful growth catalyst for T. Rowe Price, combining expanded product offerings with a concentrated shareholder base [4] - The current market price is viewed as an attractive entry point for both income-focused and strategic growth investors [4]

BlackRock's Strategic Ambition - BlackRock aims to double its operating income from $8 billion to approximately $15 billion and market capitalization from approximately $140 billion to $280 billion by 2030[21] - The company targets organic base fee growth of ≥5% and an operating margin, as adjusted, of ≥45% through the cycle[17, 21] - BlackRock targets $400 billion of cumulative fundraising in private markets from 2025 to 2030[29, 30, 31] iShares Growth and ETF Market - The ETF industry is projected to grow to $27 trillion by 2030[132, 133] - iShares achieved $431 billion in LTM (Last Twelve Months) net new business in 1Q25, representing 11% organic asset growth[129] - iShares' ETF AUM (Assets Under Management) stands at $43 trillion[129] Liquid Active Strategies - BlackRock's liquid active strategies have $36 trillion in AUM[207] - Liquid active strategies generated $215 billion in LTM net new business in 1Q25, reflecting 7% organic asset growth[208] Systematic Investing - BlackRock Systematic has $317 billion in AUM across equities, fixed income, and alternatives[245, 247] - The Systematic strategies generated $115 billion in alpha from January 2020 to March 2025[245] Fixed Income - BlackRock's fixed income AUM is $30 trillion, including $931 billion in cash management and $206 billion in private credit client assets[265] - Fixed income strategies achieved $160 billion in LTM net new business in 1Q25, with 6% organic asset growth[265] International Platform - BlackRock's non-US AUM is $44 trillion[405] - The international platform generated $331 billion in LTM net new business in 1Q25, representing 8% organic asset growth[405]