Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, net sales and revenues increased by 11% to $12.4 billion, while net sales for equipment operations rose by 14% to $10.6 billion. However, net income attributable to Deere & Company decreased to $1.1 billion, or $3.93 per diluted share [6][12]. - For the full year, net sales and revenues were down 12% to $45.7 billion, with net sales for equipment operations down 13% to $38.9 billion. Net income was $5 billion, or $18.50 per diluted share [6][12]. Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production and Precision Ag segment saw net sales of $4.74 billion, up 10% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 12.7%. The increase was attributed to higher shipment volumes and favorable price realization [7]. - Small Ag and Turf segment reported net sales of $2.57 billion, up 7% year-over-year, but operating profit declined to $25 million due to higher tariffs and production costs [8]. - Construction and Forestry segment experienced a 27% increase in net sales to $3.382 billion, with an operating margin of 10.3% [12]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The outlook for large equipment sales in North America is expected to decline by 15%-20%, while small ag and turf demand is estimated to be flat to up 5% [9][10]. - In Europe, the industry is projected to be flat to up 5%, with robust dairy sector margins and improving arable cash flows [10][43]. - South America is expected to see flat industry sales, with Brazil's demand tempered by high interest rates and strong global crop yields [10][11]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to manage inventory carefully and avoid oversupply while focusing on used inventory reduction. This strategy is expected to position the market well for 2026 [34]. - The company is committed to advancing its smart industrial journey, emphasizing technology and innovation to enhance customer value and operational efficiency [20][66]. - The focus on R&D investment is expected to support future growth and unlock value for customers and shareholders [64][66]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that fiscal 2025 was marked by significant challenges, but the company demonstrated resilience with over $5 billion in net income and strong operating margins [5][18]. - The company anticipates a subdued large ag market in North America for 2026 but sees growth opportunities in small ag, turf, and construction forestry segments [6][10]. - Management expressed optimism about stabilizing market conditions and the potential for growth driven by favorable commodity demand and government support for farmers [37][46]. Other Important Information - The company expects a full-year net income forecast for 2026 to be in the range of $4 billion to $4.75 billion, with a projected effective tax rate between 25%-27% [16]. - The company plans to resume normal capital allocation activities in 2026 after pausing buybacks in Q4 2025 due to market uncertainty [64]. Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company thinking about offsetting the $1.2 billion tariff headwind in 2026? - The company expects to capture back some of the incremental exposure from tariffs through price-cost positive strategies and plans to take additional price increases as needed [70]. Question: Can you unpack the decremental margin on the sales decline in the Production and Precision Ag segment? - The company acknowledged that a significant portion of the decremental margin is attributed to tariffs, and they are working on improving profitability in other regions, particularly Brazil [74].

Core Thesis - Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) is viewed positively due to its diversified business model and operational improvements, with a current share price of $18.66 as of September 22nd [1][2] Business Segments - CLMT operates three core businesses: Specialty Products & Solutions (SPS), Performance Brands (PB), and Montana/Renewables (MRL), with SPS and PB generating mid-cycle EBITDA of approximately $285 million [2] - The SPS and PB segments are valued at an estimated $2.3 billion EV, translating to about $13 per share, while MRL has an EV of $1.1 billion [2] Financial Performance and Projections - MRL's current EBITDA stands at $65 million, but there are catalysts that could increase it to over $300 million, driven by political support for biofuels and capacity expansion under the MAXSAF program [3] - The upcoming production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to yield a margin premium of $1–$2 per gallon over renewable diesel, enhancing MRL's profitability [3] Regulatory Environment - Regulatory support, including favorable Renewable Identification Number (RIN) pricing and reduced RIN obligations for CLMT, could significantly enhance the company's valuation [4] - If favorable scenarios unfold, the total company valuation using an 8x EBITDA multiple could exceed $30 per share, indicating substantial upside potential from the current price of $17 [4] Historical Context and Future Outlook - The stock price of CLMT has appreciated approximately 88% since a previous bullish thesis in April 2025, which highlighted biodiesel margin inflection and MRL's feedstock advantage [5] - Current operational improvements in SPS and PB, along with the impact of SAF and MAXSAF capacity on long-term EBITDA, continue to support a bullish outlook for the company [5]

An alliance forged between Big Oil and US farmers over biofuels is crumbling as lawmakers craft Trump's tax legislation, writes @KimChipman1 https://t.co/LskvdQY4pQ ...

Consolidation in the Oil Industry - A consolidation wave has occurred in the oil sector, with ExxonMobil initiating a $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron planning to buy Hess for $60 billion [1][2] BP's Strategic Shifts - BP has faced challenges and undergone two significant strategy shifts, initially pledging to cut capital spending on oil and gas projects by 40% to focus on clean energy [4] - Due to a recovery in oil prices and underperformance, BP has revised its strategy, reducing renewable investment from $5 billion to $1.5 billion to $2 billion annually while increasing oil and gas capital investment to $10 billion per year [5][6] BP's Production Goals - BP aims to increase its overall oil and gas output to an average of 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day by 2030, up from less than 2.4 million BOE last year [6] Comparison with Competitors - BP's strategy contrasts with U.S. oil giants like Exxon and Chevron, which have clear multi-year strategies for shareholder value growth, including Exxon's $140 billion investment plan and Chevron's focus on advantaged assets [7][8] Potential Takeover Interest - BP's underperformance has made it a potential takeover target, with companies like Shell, Exxon, Chevron, TotalEnergies, and Adnoc Gas reportedly considering acquisitions [10][12] - Shell has expressed hesitance, preferring stock repurchases over acquiring BP, citing the need to stabilize its own operations first [11] Challenges to Acquisition - BP's significant debt of $77 billion, partly from the Deepwater Horizon disaster, poses a challenge for potential acquirers, as it could negatively impact their balance sheets [13] - Regulatory scrutiny in the U.K. may also hinder any acquisition attempts, as there may be resistance to foreign control of BP [13] Investment Appeal - Despite speculation around a potential acquisition, BP's shifting strategy and financial challenges make it a less appealing investment compared to Exxon and Chevron, which have more defined growth strategies [14]