A new regime in which political announcements move markets more than internal metrics has begun to undermine the relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.  While equities rallied in 2025, Bitcoin lagged, pointing to a market increasingly driven by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than broad risk appetite. Under the traditional four-year model, early 2026 would typically mark a late-cycle or post-peak phase. Instead, price action suggests investors are deferring that transition, with policy s ...

Will the CLARITY Act have a big impact on Bitcoin's price? | Source: Gemini Key Takeaways The CLARITY Act passing could drive a market surge for Bitcoin and crypto, according to Bitwise’s Matt Hougan. Hougan argues that Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns are less relevant in 2026. The CLARITY Act aims to define which digital assets fall under the SEC or CFTC. Industry leaders are increasingly focusing on the potential market impact of the upcoming CLARITY Act. Some suggest it could end the long-running ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of the cryptocurrency industry, highlighting the significant growth of Bitcoin and the influence of key figures like Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, who has been a prominent advocate for Bitcoin since its early days [4][6][10]. Company Insights - Pantera Capital has emerged as one of the largest asset managers in the cryptocurrency space, currently managing $5.2 billion in assets and backing over 200 crypto companies, including Coinbase and Ripple [3]. - The firm has gradually reduced its Bitcoin holdings, now holding approximately $1 billion, as it reallocates funds to invest in new companies [14]. - Pantera launched its Bitcoin Fund in 2013, focusing on Bitcoin investments as the digital asset gained traction [5][6]. Industry Trends - The cryptocurrency market has transitioned from a niche experiment to a more integrated ecosystem with traditional financial markets, influenced by favorable policies from the Trump administration [4][11]. - Morehead anticipates that altcoins will outperform Bitcoin in the next three years, benefiting from the regulatory clarity provided by the current administration [12]. - The article discusses the potential for tokenization of various assets on the blockchain, with Morehead predicting that many stocks will trade on the blockchain within a few years [15][19]. Market Predictions - Morehead expects Bitcoin to double in value within a year, potentially reaching over $230,000, and ultimately rise to $1 million [10]. - The historical four-year cycle of Bitcoin's price movements is still considered relevant, with halvings playing a crucial role in price dynamics [8][9]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape appears to be improving, with the SEC signaling a move towards modernizing securities rules to accommodate blockchain technologies [20]. - Companies adopting crypto treasury strategies are becoming a trend, with Pantera backing several publicly traded firms that have integrated cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets [21][22].