Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, says 2026 may be one of the most difficult years to forecast for bitcoin (BTC), even as the firm maintains a bullish long-term outlook. In a Dec. 21 post on X, Thorn said the coming year is “too chaotic to predict,” pointing to a mix of macro uncertainty, political risk and uneven crypto market momentum. Thorn said the comments were based on Galaxy Research’s Dec. 18 report, “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026,” which outlines the ...

Shares of Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) have plunged over 30% from their late October peak of $343.78, closing at $269.73 on December 5. ...

Core Insights - Strategy (MSTR) stock has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with a 60% correction from its 52-week high of $457, primarily due to declines in Bitcoin prices [1][4] - The company has established $1.44 billion in dollar reserves to support dividend payments and debt servicing, aiming for a coverage of 24 months of dividends [2][5] - As of December 2025, Strategy holds 650,000 Bitcoin, making it the largest Bitcoin treasury company globally, and reported a revenue growth of 10.9% in its AI-powered analytics software business [3] Financial Position - Strategy's enterprise value is reported at $68 billion, with convertible debt of $8.2 billion, resulting in a low loan-to-value ratio of 11%, indicating financial flexibility [6] - The company's Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) has decreased from $71 billion to $59 billion, highlighting the risks associated with high volatility in crypto assets [7] Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates an operating profit of $9.5 billion in 2025 if Bitcoin reaches $110,000 by year-end, but expects a loss of $7 billion if Bitcoin trades at $85,000 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Strategy has established a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve to ensure continuous dividends, even during Bitcoin downturns, while maintaining a 3.1% stake in total Bitcoin supply [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Strategy - The USD reserve was created by selling MSTR equity over nine days, with a goal to secure at least 12 months of dividends, aiming to expand this to 24 months [2]. - The company plans to deliver a digital credit product to investors averse to Bitcoin's volatility, ensuring that dividends remain unaffected by market fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Operations - Strategy holds a reserve of 650,000 BTC, valued at approximately $56 billion, representing about 3.1% of the total Bitcoin supply, including recent purchases [5]. - The company has shifted its business model from intelligence software solutions to becoming a leading digital asset treasury company since 2020 [5]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The CEO indicated that if the market-adjusted net asset value (mNAV) falls below 1, the company would consider selling Bitcoin to finance dividends, countering skepticism about its willingness to do so [3][4][7]. - The company can sell appreciated Bitcoin to pay dividends while potentially increasing its Bitcoin holdings each quarter [5].

RT 🚨BSC Gems Alert🚨 (@BSCGemsAlert)🚨 JUST IN 🚨MICHAEL SAYLOR SAYS:"BITCOIN VOLATILITY IS A FEATURE, NOT A BUG." https://t.co/clTAYclAKj ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced a pullback from its all-time highs, creating an opportunity to build positions in ETFs that can benefit from increased volatility and uncertainty [1] - The NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF is highlighted as a potential investment vehicle in this context [1] - A hybrid investment strategy combining classic dividend growth stocks, Business Development Companies, REITs, and Closed End Funds is suggested to enhance investment income while achieving total returns comparable to traditional index funds like the S&P [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on uncovering high-quality dividend stocks and assets with long-term growth potential [1] - The strategy aims to create a balance between growth and income, allowing investors to capture total returns that align with market benchmarks [1]

🚨 NEW: Anthony Pompliano says Wall Street shouldn't be squeamish about Bitcoin volatility.“Over the last decade, Bitcoin has drawn down 30% or more 21 different times.” https://t.co/SE32kkNgIV ...

Boomers learning about Bitcoin volatility in real timeThey are selling in drovesETF outflows are INSANEVery very goodWE WILL BE BUYING BITCOIN CHEAP IN 2026!!!!Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch):The average Spot BTC ETF holder is now in the red. https://t.co/fMb5ln2we7 ...

Core Insights - CME Group and CF Benchmarks are launching two new bitcoin volatility indices on December 2, 2025, namely the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index - Real Time (BVX) and the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index - Settlement (BVXS) [1][2] Group 1: Indices Overview - The new indices provide forward-looking, market-based measures of expected bitcoin price fluctuations over a 30-day period [2] - These indices are not tradable futures products but serve as indicators of implied volatility in CME Group's regulated options on Bitcoin futures [2] Group 2: Market Context - In 2025, nearly $46 billion in equivalent notional value was traded in CME Group's Bitcoin options, establishing them as a benchmark for assessing market views on bitcoin volatility [3] - The launch of these indices is seen as a significant milestone for the crypto asset class, reflecting the increasing sophistication of tools available for managing risk in the bitcoin options market [3] Group 3: Calculation and Publication - The BVX is calculated and published every second during trading hours from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Central, while the BVXS is published at 4 p.m. London time [3]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's volatility is awakening after a period of dormancy in 2025, indicating a phase of increased price fluctuations and uncertainty [1] Volatility Trends - The 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has recently surged past a trendline, confirming a bullish breakout with an annualized volatility of 73% [2] - Analysts attribute the sustained elevated volatility to shifts in market flows, weaker liquidity, and ongoing macroeconomic concerns [3] Market Dynamics - Long-standing volatility sellers, including OG holders, miners, and whales, have reduced their activity, which previously dampened price swings through aggressive call overwriting [4] - Following a significant selloff on October 10, where Bitcoin dropped from nearly $120,000 to $105,000, these sellers have retreated, leading to fewer call overwrites and an increase in implied volatility [5] Demand for Hedging - There is a growing demand for downside put protection among institutional investors as spot prices decline, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6] - The combination of limited volatility supply, increased demand for downside hedging, and a structurally weaker liquidity environment suggests that elevated volatility levels may persist [7] Liquidity Concerns - Liquidity has weakened significantly since the October 10 crash, making prices more sensitive to large buy and sell orders [8] - Market makers faced heavy losses during the crash, with forced liquidations amounting to $20 billion, leading to a reduction in trading activity due to concerns over automatic deleveraging mechanisms [9]