Group 1 - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 10% rally since the beginning of the year, with analysts predicting it could reach six figures for the first time since mid-November [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is characterized by outstanding credit quality and a very low risk of default, serving as collateral in various financial transactions [2] - When Treasury prices are volatile, it constrains credit and discourages risk-taking, while stable bond prices encourage investment in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies [3] Group 2 - The ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in Treasury bonds, has fallen to 58, the lowest level since October 2021, indicating a favorable environment for Bitcoin and tech stocks [4] - Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to move in line with the Nasdaq 100 index and inversely to the MOVE index, a trend that persisted through Bitcoin's 2022 crash and the subsequent bull run in 2023 [5] - The decline in bond market volatility is one of several factors supporting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, alongside new ETF inflows [6]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently trading below its all-time high of $124k, which is 1.8 times the 2021 peak of $69k, indicating that it has not yet entered a euphoric phase in the current cycle [1] - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin could reach targets of $240k or even $300k, especially as it trades above $100k, a scenario that seemed unlikely during the 2022 bear market [2] - The current market cycle is being closely monitored to see if it follows the historical pattern of the classic four-year halving cycle, with previous peaks occurring in Q4 of the calendar year [3] Market Performance - The current cycle has not yet experienced a euphoric blow-off top, which typically sees year-over-year returns exceeding 5x, as observed in previous cycles [4] - Since 2023, Bitcoin has shown a comparatively shallow drawdown profile, indicating a more stable uptrend [4] - The market has seen two significant pullbacks of approximately 32% in August 2024 and April 2025, attributed to broader market corrections [5] Market Positioning - Bitcoin, despite a market cap exceeding $2 trillion, still represents less than 10% of the precious metals market and less than 0.2% of the global asset base, suggesting significant room for growth [6] - Bitcoin has outperformed gold, appreciating over 80% in gold terms since February 2022, even during the bear market that saw prices drop to $15.6k [6][7]