Core Viewpoint - Investors should prepare for a potential stock-market crash due to structural issues like the US debt burden, despite current market optimism and record corporate profits [1][2][3] Group 1: Debt Concerns - The US is facing a predictable crisis related to mounting debt, which could lead to significant economic problems if not addressed [2][3] - Taleb emphasizes that when debt servicing becomes the largest budget item for individuals, corporations, or states, it signals serious trouble [3] Group 2: Market Outlook - Universa Investments maintains a bullish stance on equities, but Taleb stresses the importance of hedging against potential downturns [4] - The current market optimism must be balanced with protective measures to mitigate risks [4] Group 3: Black Swan Events - Taleb suggests that the only potential "black swan" event in the current context would be a miraculous solution to the debt issue, which seems unlikely [5] - There is skepticism regarding whether artificial intelligence could serve as a miracle solution, as it also introduces its own risks [5][6] Group 4: Impact of Technology - While AI has the potential to assist in economic recovery, it also poses risks to skilled labor, which may face downgrading due to technological advancements [6]

And the markets focus a little difficult to pin down, it seems, Marc, today, lots of disparate conversations happening. I know that you're drawn to thinking about the relationship between the dollar and rates. And you see something interesting there, especially coming up to month end.Yes. A couple of things here. I think, first of all, the macro community is starting to warm up to the idea of playing for a bit more of a sustained dollar bounce.Now, short term, that is kind of helped by the idea that into mo ...