However, in real game conditions, the path to the layup could be heavily defended. In that case, the open player standing outside the arc may have the easier shot, even though the distance is greater. That’s basically the Markov property. It’s a second-order analysis that derives probabilities from context rather than model presumption.To be clear, this lack of calculation doesn’t make the Wall Street standard pricing mechanism wrong — but it does make the outputted projections potentially suboptimal. That’ ...