Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes providing actionable and clear investment ideas through independent research, aiming to help members outperform the S&P 500 and mitigate significant losses during market volatility [1] Group 1 - The service offers at least one in-depth article per week focused on investment ideas [1] - The company claims to have assisted members in achieving better performance than the S&P 500 while avoiding substantial drawdowns in both equity and bond markets [1] - A trial membership is available to evaluate the effectiveness of the company's investment methods [1]

上周受风险资产表现偏弱、央行呵护资金面支撑，债市做多情绪有所提升。昨日国债期货整体走强。分 析人士认为，在避险情绪惯性回落、日历效应以及资金面维持平稳背景下，机构"持券过节"意愿将增 强，春节假期前债市偏强走势将延续，但需警惕政策信号以及风险资产反弹的扰动。节后债市行情分化 和波动率回升的概率较大，重点关注宏观面变化和风险资产走势。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a peak in government bond issuance with a net financing amount of nearly 800 billion yuan, supported by the central bank's liquidity measures, leading to a downward trend in bond yields, particularly in the long end of the curve [1][6] - The bond market is expected to remain stable due to the central bank's continued support, with a focus on the maturity of 6-month reverse repos, while the 10-year government bond yield approaches the critical level of 1.8%, which may exert pressure on the bond market [1][16] - The yield curve for government bonds shows a general decline in yields across various maturities, with notable decreases in the long-term bonds [2][3] Group 2 - In the primary market, a total of 122 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 1,206.73 billion yuan, with government bonds accounting for 39.7 billion yuan and local government bonds for 579.67 billion yuan [6] - The upcoming week is projected to see the issuance of 55 bonds totaling 489.14 billion yuan, indicating ongoing robust supply in the bond market [6] - The central bank's operations included multiple reverse repos, with a significant 8 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity [12][13] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with a notable decline following weak labor market data, reflecting broader market sentiments and potential impacts on investment strategies [7][10] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with an increase in initial jobless claims and a significant drop in job vacancies, which may influence future economic outlooks and bond market dynamics [9][10] - The U.S. Treasury's decision to maintain its current bond issuance strategy suggests a stable approach to debt management amidst changing market conditions [11] Group 4 - Analysts from Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities express cautious optimism regarding the bond market, anticipating stable performance leading up to the Spring Festival, while also noting potential pressures from profit-taking and equity market stabilization [16][17] - Financial strategies are shifting towards duration strategies, with recommendations for specific bond types to optimize returns in the current market environment [17]

Group 1 - The bond market is currently experiencing an exceptionally quiet phase despite a volatile macroeconomic backdrop [1] - The US benchmark interest rate concluded last week at a notable level, indicating potential trends in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing macro drivers across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies [1] - There is a focus on creating engaging narratives around financial data to make it accessible and relevant to everyday investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steepening of the Treasury yield curve in 2023 may hinder long-term borrowers from fully benefiting from potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1] Group 1 - A steepening yield curve indicates increasing long-term interest rates relative to short-term rates, which could impact borrowing costs for long-term loans [1] - Long-term borrowers may face challenges in capitalizing on future rate cuts if the yield curve continues to steepen [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. government debt is experiencing increased demand due to safe-haven interest amid rising concerns regarding the labor market [1] Group 1 - The demand for U.S. government debt is being driven by fresh concerns about the labor market [1]

Group 1: Economic and Market Conditions - The partial U.S. Government shutdown is negatively impacting economic activity and lending, with companies like Newrez reporting on its effects [1] - Mortgage rates are primarily driven by market conditions rather than political factors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring the bond market [9] - The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates tighter standards for commercial lending, with mixed demand trends expected to persist through 2026 [17] Group 2: Company Innovations and Offerings - ICE Servicing Digital simplifies the home equity loan application process, allowing servicers to enhance customer relationships and recapture business [2] - Land Gorilla's integration with Encompass® automates the transition from loan origination to draw management, improving efficiency in construction loan administration [3] - Better Wholesale offers competitive HELOC products with low rates and no origination fees, targeting price-sensitive clients and self-employed borrowers [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Trends - Uplist Recapture™ has identified over $8.5 billion in refinance opportunities in the past 30 days, helping loan officers capitalize on dormant databases [4] - Figure is expanding HELOC eligibility to include LLC-held properties, catering to a growing segment of real estate investors who accounted for 34% of home purchases in Q3 2025 [5] - Smaller lenders are leveraging Total Expert Customer Intelligence to enhance borrower engagement and drive additional funded loans [7] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Responses - PennyMac Financial Services Inc. reported profits significantly below expectations, leading to a 33% drop in its stock price and affecting the outlook for other lenders [14][15] - The mortgage industry is facing increased competition, which is tightening margins and complicating recapture efforts for lenders [15] - The U.S. MBS market started 2026 strongly, with a 52 basis point excess return in January, supported by stable conditions and low volatility [19]

Core Insights - Obermeyer Wealth Partners has increased its stake in the F/m U.S. Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF by 186,777 shares, with an estimated transaction value of $9.33 million [2] - The ETF has a total asset under management (AUM) of $6.31 billion and a current price of $49.88, with a dividend yield of 4.03% [4][5] - F/m Investments has filed an application with the SEC to digitize ownership of the ETF's shares on a blockchain ledger, which could make it the first known U.S. ETF to be digitally tokenized [7][8] ETF Overview - The F/m U.S. Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF aims to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of U.S. Treasury 3-month bills, investing at least 80% of its assets in that bond market [5] - The ETF has shown a 1-year total return of -0.24% and a growth of only 0.22% over the last five years [4][6] Investment Implications - Investing in TBIL may offer lower risk due to its focus on short-term bonds, which are less susceptible to default and interest rate fluctuations [6] - The potential digitization of shares may attract investors interested in blockchain technology, although it may not appeal to those averse to the blockchain space [8]

As you can tell, our core style is to provide actionable and unambiguous ideas from our independent research. If your share this investment style, check out Envision Early Retirement. It provides at least 1x in-depth articles per week on such ideas.We have helped our members not only to beat S&P 500 but also avoid heavy drawdowns despite the extreme volatilities in BOTH the equity AND bond market.Join for a trial and see if our proven method can help you too. ...

In the past two weeks, Rick Rieder’s odds on Polymarket of becoming the next Fed chair have surged from low single digits to nearly 50%, putting the veteran Wall Streeter far in the lead over second and third place candidates Kevin Warsh (29%) and Christopher Waller (6%). Rieder would bring a highly unusual background to the job. The current chief Jerome Powell is a former lawyer, private equity partner, and Treasury official, while his predecessors Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan were PhD economists (the ...