Every time the bond market prices, we see these huge flows, you know, in various products and so on. Are we seeing that in the beauty market. I mean, on a day like today, for example, do you see a massive amount of money move around.You know, a lot of money has been still going into passive type strategies. But if you look at new product creation, especially in the ETF space, it really has geared towards active. And we think that pendulum is definitely swinging back and we're expecting the flows to follow i ...

After a disappointing jobs report, the markets are betting the Fed will cut interest rates in September. So, what does history tell us about rate cuts and how they affect the markets? On this episode of Market Sense, our Fidelity leaders discuss the chances of a rate cut in September and what it could mean for investors. Topics covered: • Federal Reserve • Interest Rate Cuts • Stocks & Bonds 00:00: Market sense introduction 02:02: When will we see tariff impact? 05:03: Rate cut for September? 07:26: What hi ...

Australia’s bond market is showing early signs of stress from the nation’s massive borrowing plan this year, but the effect is being obscured by strong demand from foreign investors diversifying from Treasuries https://t.co/QCNdXbjSdk ...

Let's talk about it all with Mike Cudsell. He is a senior portfolio manager at PIMCO. Mike, pleasure to get you on the show.The market, Visav, the CME, Fed funds, futures, etc. pricing in basically 100% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting. Are you at 100%. Yeah, thank thanks for having me, Brian, and and pleasure to be here.Um, we do think recalibration 2.0% know starts again in in September. Uh the Fed most likely, you know, resumes cutting rates. Um most likely 25 basis points.The data will will ...

[Music] Welcome to Stocks and Translation, Yahoo Finance's video podcast that cuts through the market mayhem, the noisy numbers, and the hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. I'm Jared Blickery, your host, and with me is Yahoo Finance senior reporter Brooke De Palma. She is here to keep the discussion simple and pointed toward you, the listener.Today, we're going to be focusing on the bond market and the economy. If you care about your mortgage rate, your ...

Foreign outflows from Malaysia’s domestic bond market may ease, according to Convera Singapore, as growing expectations of Fed rate cuts begin to shift investor sentiment https://t.co/EGHTQ6Tc3f ...

每经AI快讯，华西证券（002926）指出，8月债市或迎高光时刻。一是中美的关税谈判结果或重新升级 为资产定价的主要变量；二是7月PMI和票据市场数据显示，需求端仍然偏弱，同时短期政策刺激预期 正在回撤；三是商品行情降温，也对债市形成利好；四是8月资金利率容易成为年内低点；五是机构资 金可能回流债市。 ...

Bond Market & Treasury Auction Analysis - Treasury's 10-year note auction took place [1] - Yields are dipping potentially due to headlines about the phone call and Fed's Cook being dovish [2] - Auction wasn't terrific [3] Market Trends & Indicators - Two times traded four and a quarter around 11:40 Eastern and 1 Eastern [3] - 30s minus 10 spread (the knob) is a favorite in Chicago [3] - The 30s minus 10 spread is almost triple what it was at the end of last year, rising from 20 to almost 60, implying a steeper curve and stubbornly high long rates [4]

多家机构测算了"新老划断"对于老券和新券的影响。 市场普遍认为，在新券征收增值税后，各类机构可能倾向于持有老券，因此在改革伊始新券发行时可能 提供利率补偿，从而导致新老债券之间出现利差。 "新老国债之间的利差可能达5至10个基点(BP)，且新券收益率的上行幅度可能大于老券的下行幅 度。"国金资管固收团队测算，以10年期国债为例，假定后续票面利率为1.7%，自营类账户按6%税率征 税，影响大致为10BP，而资管产品按3%税率征税，影响为5BP左右。 华源证券分析，新老政府债券及金融债收益率将出现5至10BP利差，对增值税差异进行适度补偿。信用 债相对利率债和金融债的性价比会提升，信用利差会出现一定幅度的压缩。新规或将使得企业债券收益 率与新发的金融债收益率更接近。 不同机构影响迥异 目前我国债券投资的税收制度针对不同券种、不同投资者以及不同的收益来源存在一定的差异。因此， 此次政策变化对不同机构影响存在较大差异。 对于国债利息等恢复征收增值税，市场普遍认为，存量债券(以下简称"老券")由于仍然享受增值税优 惠，相对于新发债券(以下简称"新券")具有一定优势，上周五，债市出现了显著的波动。8月4日早盘， 现券收益 ...

Labor Market & Economic Outlook - US labor market shows warning signs with payrolls tumbling and unemployment rate rising, indicating a deceleration in job gains [1][2] - Concerns mount over a complicated mix for the Federal Reserve to deal with, leading to expectations of potential rate cuts in September and December [2][3] - Slowing services wages suggest a potential slowdown in consumption and the overall economy, justifying lower interest rates even without a formal recession [19] - The economy is structurally sound, but current policy may be suboptimal, with rates disproportionately hurting lower-income households as housing and labor markets slow [9][10] Interest Rate & Monetary Policy - Fed rate cut bets for September have reached nearly 90%, a significant increase from 45% prior to jobs data, with two rate cuts priced in for the year [6] - The Cleveland Fed President acknowledges a tricky time for monetary policy makers due to conflicting mandates, requiring careful data analysis and business conversations [7][8] - The market anticipates bull steepening as the economy slows and the Fed cuts rates, potentially spurring inflation or growth, leading to a V-shaped recovery [12] - Neutral rate is difficult to determine, potentially higher than expected due to shifts in household and business debt structures, allowing for higher interest rates with a robust economy [17][18] Bond Market & Credit Issuance - US high-grade weekly volume reached $12 million, driven by foreign bank sales, while July volume was $81 billion, the lightest month for supply this year [29] - US high-yield July volumes exceeded $35 billion, marking the second busiest month since September 2021 and the busiest since at least 2006 [30] - Leveraged loan launches in July set a record, reaching over $222 billion, the fourth time in 14 months an all-time record has been broken [30] - Private sector holds $225 trillion in cash, exceeding marketable Treasury debt, with only $29 trillion in high-quality bonds, creating a transcendent influence on the market [26][27]