Our next guest says the oil shock from the Iran war is different from previous disruptions. Let's bring in Rier Sharmmer, the chairman of Rockefeller International and the founder and chief investment officer at Breakout Capital has a new oped in the FT today. Rashier, good to see you again.Thanks for the joining us. >> Thanks Kyle for having me back. >> We do have the IAA saying that this crisis is worse than 73, 79, and 22 put together.How do you think it's different. Well, I think it's different from a u ...

It's a little bit of a kind of specialist market, but it has been absolutely annihilated by what's going on here. Give us a scale of how big the moves are. Yeah, what you've seen in bond markets is this move to price in a big inflation shock.>> Yeah. >> Um from the Middle East war. So, you've seen short-term expectations for inflation surge with oil and gas prices.And it's particularly hit countries that are more dependent on imported energy. And the UK is one of them, particularly gas. Uh so, you've seen E ...

Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may be downplaying inflation risks, but the bond market is signaling skepticism about how quickly price pressures will recede. “Inflation expectations do appear to be well anchored beyond the ...

Group 1 - Markets are beginning to price in a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, focusing more on growth implications rather than inflation [2][3] - Rising energy prices are expected to negatively impact growth, leading central banks to potentially adopt a less hawkish stance than previously feared [3] - The upcoming Eurozone inflation data for March may remind markets of inflation risks, which could influence bond market sentiment [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. employment data and its implications for the Federal Reserve will be challenging to interpret due to market closures and the backward-looking nature of the data [1][3] - Recent CPI data from the U.K. and Europe indicates that inflationary pressures are not as favorable as policymakers had hoped, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [4]

30y treasury just hit 4.943%. that's the highest since the iran strikes began. market is demanding nearly 5% to lend the US government money for 30 years. fed is frozen. this is the bond market calling the stagflation bluff. ...

Global rates. The global bond selloff. We kind of understand what's going on here, but are we entering.In your view, a new era when it comes to the global bond trade. We're not overly concerned about it, particularly from a U.S. perspective. Right.If you think about what Japan is going through now with the, you know, be a little behind the curve catching inflation. We've been through that. We got through that five years ago.The best way to look at its real yields rate, inflation adjusted yields, not exactly ...

Stocks heading for a fourth straight week of losses. Jonathan Karl above sea port writing. The market has not had the defensive rotation that would be consistent with the current environment.Jonathan joins us now for more. Jonathan, good to see you. Good to see you.What did you mean by that line. Well, I mean, we're seeing the market offers of the markets set off by time itself by about 4%, and it could be a good sign. But the but defensive sectors like health care and consumer staples are down by the same ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.K. government bond market is experiencing unprecedented pressure compared to global bond markets [1] Group 1 - Bond markets worldwide are facing significant challenges, but the U.K. market is particularly vulnerable [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that bond markets may be overly focused on inflation, neglecting the risk of a deeper growth scare, indicating that downside risks to yields are currently underpriced following recent energy-driven volatility [1][2] - A significant rise in energy prices could shift market attention from persistent inflation to demand destruction and weaker growth, potentially leading to lower yields and sustained volatility [2] - The bank remains cautious about outright volatility selling in US rates, advocating for more selective positioning instead, as implied volatility has reset higher [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that receiver spreads are the preferred limited-risk hedge against a left-tail outcome, while recent repricing in payer skew could be managed through risk reversals rather than outright volatility selling [3] - The current state of 2-year US Treasury risk reversals is at its lowest since the peak of the hiking cycle, indicating that markets are still paying a premium for protection against higher yields while underestimating risks related to the labor market and growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes providing actionable and clear investment ideas through independent research, aiming to help members outperform the S&P 500 and mitigate significant losses during market volatility [1] Group 1 - The service offers at least one in-depth article per week focused on investment ideas [1] - Members have reportedly achieved better performance than the S&P 500 while avoiding substantial drawdowns in both equity and bond markets [1]