China Vanke creditors are set to meet as the distressed developer makes one more push to win support for a bond extension plan aimed at averting a default https://t.co/hsVhjYNI4U ...

Summary of China Vanke Company Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Vanke Company Ltd. - **Industry**: China Property - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb65,311 million - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb5.89 (as of November 26, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb4.58, indicating a downside of 22% from the current price [5][5][5] Key Financial Metrics - **52-Week Range**: Rmb8.99 - Rmb5.89 - **Average Daily Trading Value**: Rmb950.91 million - **Net Income Estimates**: - 2025: (Rmb21,301 million) - 2026: (Rmb9,693 million) - 2027: (Rmb3,697 million) - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025: (Rmb1.79) - 2026: (Rmb0.81) - 2027: (Rmb0.31) [5][5][5] Bond Issues and Financial Strategy - **Upcoming Bond Maturities**: - Rmb2 billion bond maturing on December 15, 2025 - Other bonds maturing in 2026 and 2027 with varying coupon rates [3][3][3] - **Potential Bond Extension**: A meeting with bondholders is scheduled for December 10, 2025, to discuss the extension of the Rmb2 billion onshore bond, which may indicate a broader strategy to manage debt [8][8][8] - **Cash Burn Rate**: Estimated to worsen to approximately Rmb10 billion monthly, complicating project completions [8][8][8] Market and Sales Insights - **Property Sales Impact**: The potential bond extension could lead to a significant drop in property sales, with a shift in buyer preference towards state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and completed units [8][8][8] - **Overall Market Impact**: The impact on new home sales is expected to be manageable, with a noted shift in buyer behavior [8][8][8] Valuation Methodology - **Net Asset Value (NAV)**: - Rmb6.55/share for 2025, comprising: - Rmb15.71 from development properties - Rmb7.85 from investment properties - Rmb5.33 from other business - Rmb22.35 of net debt - A 30% discount applied based on a developers' scorecard [9][9][9] Analyst Ratings and Industry View - **Stock Rating**: Underweight - **Industry View**: In-Line - **Analyst**: Stephen Cheung, CFA [5][5][5] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Potential for deeper losses due to aggressive destocking and asset disposals - Weaker-than-expected financial results and contract sales [12][12][12] - **Upside Risks**: - Monetization of business diversification and stronger-than-expected contract sales [12][12][12] Conclusion China Vanke Company Ltd. is navigating a challenging financial landscape with significant upcoming bond maturities and a potential cash burn issue. The company's strategy to extend bond maturities may provide temporary relief, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious, reflected in the underweight stock rating and the anticipated decline in property sales.