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3 Resistance Trendlines Driving the S&P 500's Advance
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2025-05-19 12:55
Core Viewpoint - The recent bullish "outside day" candle on April 30 indicates a potential for upward price movement in the S&P 500 Index (SPX), supported by historical trends and current market sentiment [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The SPX closed above its year-end 2024 level for the first time since February 28, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [3]. - A significant gap above resistance levels was observed, driven by positive developments in U.S.-China trade talks, which traders did not fully discount [5]. - The SPX's recent rally has left it "overbought" according to the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicating potential caution for future movements [6]. Resistance and Support Levels - Key resistance levels for the SPX include the 6,000 mark and just below 6,150, which is the all-time high from February [7][8]. - Potential support levels are identified at 5,882 (2024 close), 5,783 (Election Day close), and the 200-day moving average at 5,760 [15]. Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Low put open interest suggests reduced hedging among money managers, who are increasingly looking at overseas markets and alternative assets like gold [2]. - A notable decrease in the buy-to-open put/call volume ratio indicates a shift in sentiment among equity option buyers, moving closer to levels that have historically preceded market weakness [13][14].