The BLS is set to release the September CPI report on October 24th, despite the government shutdown, because "Social Security Administration needs third-quarter CPI data for calculating and publishing annual cost-of-living adjustments before Nov. 1."Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ...

Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month increased by 0.4%, which is a tenth better than expected, while the year-over-year CPI rose to 2.9%, up 210 basis points from last month but in line with expectations [1][2] - Core CPI month-over-month was up 0.3%, remaining unchanged year-over-year at 3.1%, consistent with expectations [2][3] - Key contributors to the monthly increase included airline fares (up 5.9%), used cars and trucks (up 1%), and apparel (up 0.5%), while medical care, recreation, and communications saw declines [3][4] Jobless Claims - First-time jobless claims rose to 263,000, marking the highest level in four years and an increase of 27,000 from the previous month, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [5][6] - The rise in jobless claims suggests a potential increase in layoffs, which could influence Federal Reserve policy regarding interest rates [6][7] Market Reactions - The combination of inflation data and rising jobless claims has kept the 10-year yield in a tight range, hovering just above 4% [8][9] - The market appears optimistic, with stocks performing well, as the CPI data did not present any major shocks, and the weak labor market data may lead to future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The May core CPI rose by 0.13% month-over-month, which was below expectations, with the year-over-year rate increasing to 2.79% [2][3] - Declines in airfares (-2.7%) and used car prices (-0.5%) were noted, attributed to softer demand in business and tourism travel [2][3] - The report estimates that tariff increases have raised CPI components exposed to these tariffs by an average of 1.2%, contributing 0.04 percentage points to monthly core CPI inflation over the last three months [2][3][7] - The core PCE price index is estimated to have risen by 0.18% in May, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.62% [8] Summary by Relevant Sections CPI Analysis - The headline CPI rose by 0.08%, influenced by a 1.0% decline in energy prices and a 0.3% increase in food prices [7] - The core CPI components that negatively impacted the overall index included public transportation (-2.5%), apparel (-0.4%), and used cars (-0.5%), which collectively weighed down the core by 7 basis points [3] Price Index Estimates - The report anticipates that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.14% in May, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.29% [8] - Market-based core PCE is estimated to have risen by 0.22% in May [8]