Capital Spending

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Jobs Stumble—Now What? | ITK With Cathie Wood
ARK Invest· 2025-09-05 21:25
Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]
Treasury counselor Joseph Lavorgna: I don’t buy into this uncertainty argument
CNBC Television· 2025-09-03 15:57
Meanwhile, Jolt job openings coming in lower than estimates, just below 7.2% million versus 7.4% million expected. Joining us to discuss is Joe Leavia, counselor to the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. It's good to have you, Joe.Welcome back. >> Thank you. Thank you, Sarah.>> So, is this just more evidence that labor market is is cooling. It's cooling a little bit sour, but if you look at the current rate, it's exactly where it was in the fourth quarter of 2019 when the Trump economy generated nearly three ...
Aliaga: We are in a capital spending boom, bigger than the Apollo program
CNBC Television· 2025-08-27 11:55
AI Theme & Market Focus - The market is heavily focused on whether mega-cap tech companies, particularly AI superstars, can exceed high expectations, with investors demanding "straight A pluses" [2][3] - The AI theme's ability to continue powering ahead regardless of economic slowdown or political factors is being questioned [8] - The focus is shifting to the return on investment of AI, highlighted by debates around the GBT5 launch and reports on AI pilot project success [1] Industrial Sector & Capital Spending - The industrial sector is gaining attention as a beneficiary of the significant capital spending boom related to AI infrastructure buildout [4][5] - Capital spending related to AI infrastructure surpasses the Apollo space program, with companies spending over $250 billion (inflation-adjusted) annually [5] - Industrials, including energy transmission, data center cooling, and related equipment, are poised for further growth as investors diversify exposure beyond mega-caps [6] Market Leadership & Risk - Strong tech fundamentals could lead to a shift in market leadership back to tech [9] - Investors are seeking quality and defensiveness amid economic and political risks [8] - Currency and bond markets pose a risk to equity markets, reflected in the steepening yield curve and a lower dollar [11][12] Nvidia Expectations - Very high revenue growth expectations for Nvidia, with estimates of 53% year-over-year increase [3]
Market broadening could happen in second half of the year, says Morgan Stanley's Aaron Dunn
CNBC Television· 2025-08-15 19:37
Okay, we're going to go to Aaron Dunn and Power Check right now. So, let's bring in Aaron Dunn if we can. And I think that we can.Aaron Dunn, uh, welcome. It's, listen, it's one of these fluid days with a lot of news that is happening right now, Erin. So, we appreciate your patience.Uh, you're you're a scholar and a gentleman. You're head of value equity at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Um, let's move on. Let's talk about it.Um, what is top of mind, Aaron, for you. So I think one things we're really ...
Atmos Energy (ATO) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-08-07 14:00
Financial Performance - The company increased its fiscal 2025 indicated annual dividend by 8.1% to $3.48 per diluted share[3] - Year-to-date diluted EPS reached $6.40[6] - The company raised its fiscal 2025 EPS guidance range to $7.35 to $7.45, up from $7.20 to $7.30[6] - Net income for the three months ended June 30, 2025, was $186 million, compared to $166 million for the same period in 2024[7] - Capital expenditures year-to-date totaled $2.6 billion, with 86% allocated to safety and reliability spending[6] Financing and Liquidity - The company issued $650 million in 30-year senior notes at 5.00% and $500 million in 10-year senior notes at 5.20%[6] - The company settled $569 million of equity forwards[6] - Available liquidity stood at approximately $5.5 billion[6] - $1.7 billion was available under equity forward agreements[6, 21] Regulatory and Rate Adjustments - Implemented $350.8 million in rate adjustments as of August 6, 2025[6] - Approved annualized operating income increases totaled $350.8 million, with $229.1 million currently in progress[6, 34] - The company implemented a GRIP filing for Atmos Pipeline - Texas (APT), authorizing an increase in annual operating income of $77.2 million[33, 51]
Watch CNBC's full interview with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett
CNBC Television· 2025-07-30 14:34
GDP Growth & Economic Strength - US economy grew stronger than expected in Q2, driven by trade balance and consumer strength [1] - Strong GDP growth and income growth were observed [2] - The GDP release showed overall economic strength [4] - Real income grew by 3% [7] Tariffs & Trade - $127 billion in tariffs were collected [3] - Imported goods prices have dropped, suggesting foreign producers are bearing tariff costs [6] - Revenue from tariffs is important for deficit reduction [19] - Approximately 40% of imports have a 10-15% tariff [21] - The EU and Japan have agreed to spend $1 trillion in America with capital formation [21] Government Spending & Employment - Government spending saw a 5% drop [3] - There are 70,000 fewer federal employees [3] Housing & Construction - Construction spending was a point of weakness in the numbers [10] - Construction projects were held up due to anticipation of the "big beautiful bill" [11] Monetary Policy - Core PCE is at 21% [8][14] - The White House respects the Federal Reserve's independence and analysis [14]
Dollar Climbs Most Since May as US-EU Strike Trade Deal
Bloomberg Television· 2025-07-28 21:07
Consumer Spending & Economic Outlook - Consumer spending data for June is crucial, with expectations of a soft patch, already evident in retail sales data [1] - Service sector spending, including airlines, hotels, and restaurants, also shows signs of weakness [2] - Demand was pulled forward in anticipation of tariffs, and price increases are impacting consumer spending [3] - There's a bifurcation in consumer behavior, with higher-end consumers and businesses faring better than lower-end consumers who are squeezed by tariffs [5][6][7] Trade & Tariffs - American protectionism is damaging the global economy, potentially reaching a $2 trillion hit by the end of 2027 relative to the pre-trade war path [8][9] - The effective tariff rate is around 17%, the highest since the 1930s, acting as a headwind to global growth [10] - Tariffs are a regressive tax on consumers [7] Capital Spending & Tax Legislation - Tax legislation provides significant accelerated depreciation for capital spending, potentially boosting corporate cash flow [11] - Companies like AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and United Rental have indicated that the tax legislation supports their cash flow [12] - Capital spending is underappreciated for its role in creating productivity, profitability, and lifting potential GDP growth [13] - Full CapEx depreciation for 80% of CapEx will be a significant boost to cash flow [11] Monetary Policy & Labor Market - The Fed may not need to cut rates further, as previous rate cuts and tax measures are already providing stimulus [23][24][25] - Improvement in corporate profits into 2026 is expected to lead to a stronger labor market [20] - Capital spending improves profitability through productivity, incentivizing spending on jobs and wages [17]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-25 12:48
Economic Indicators - US factories experienced an unexpected decline in orders for business equipment in June [1] - The decline suggests companies are cautious about capital spending [1] Factors Influencing Investment - Trade policy uncertainty is a factor influencing companies' capital spending decisions [1] - Fiscal policy uncertainty is also contributing to companies' cautious approach to capital spending [1]
JPM: High crowding lends risk to stocks not involved in AI
CNBC Television· 2025-07-21 18:52
Free fall. He notes that some stocks face what he calls extreme crowding right now, driven by a combination of the Goldilocks outcome we just talked about. Everything is awesome and exhaustion from worrying about tariffs.Now gives you this rather amazing stat quote. This crowding is particularly unsustainable as it soared from the 25th percentile to the 100th percentile in just three months. That's the rebound off the lows.That is the fastest in 30 years. So folks that's a warning. But this is also all happ ...