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东吴证券:如何理解近期市场的波动
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-18 09:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market has shown a "spring rally" since December 17, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a record of seventeen consecutive gains and surpassing 4100 points, indicating a significant recovery from a previous low [1][9] - The stock-foreign exchange hedging index is used to assess market turning points, highlighting the divergence between A-shares and the RMB exchange rate, which serves as a valuation anchor for Chinese assets [1][9] - Historical trends validate the effectiveness of the stock-foreign exchange hedging index in predicting market movements, with notable instances in September 2024 and August 2025 where divergences led to subsequent corrections in the market [2][10] Group 2 - The current market rally is characterized by increased liquidity, driven by external factors such as the easing of uncertainties from overseas economic data and the consensus on the 2026 "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on strategic industries like satellite and aerospace [3][11] - The structure of new capital inflows shows a combination of long-term investments, active short-term trading, and foreign capital returning to the market, indicating a robust investment environment [4][12] - Significant inflows into the A500 ETF and a surge in short-term trading activities have been observed, with net inflows of nearly 400 billion RMB in financing funds during late December 2025 [5][13] Group 3 - Recent signals suggest a "slow bull" market strategy, with regulatory measures aimed at controlling excessive leverage and stabilizing market fluctuations, which is crucial for maintaining a steady market environment [6][14] - The Shanghai Composite Index's unprecedented seventeen consecutive gains indicate a potential overheating of market sentiment, necessitating measures to moderate this trend and prevent systemic risks [7][15] - Looking ahead, the market is expected to enter a second phase of the spring rally, supported by regulatory guidance and a focus on performance metrics as annual earnings reports approach [8][16] Group 4 - Investment focus should be on sectors with strong performance indicators, including AI hardware, renewable energy, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals, as well as emerging industries highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][17] - Specific areas of interest include domestic AI capabilities, energy storage, and advancements in new technologies such as quantum communication and brain-computer interfaces, which are expected to benefit from policy support and industry progress [8][17]
CC to Sell Former Titanium Dioxide Taiwan Site Land for $360M
ZACKS· 2026-01-16 15:10
Key Takeaways CC signed a definitive deal to sell the remaining land at its former Kuan Yin titanium dioxide site.The company expects about $360M in gross proceeds before taxes and fees and plans to reduce debt.CC anticipates substantial closing by mid-2026, subject to local regulatory and environmental approvals.The Chemours Company (CC) has signed a definitive agreement to sell the remaining land at its former titanium dioxide manufacturing site in Kuan Yin, Taiwan, marking progress in its portfolio and b ...
ETF日报:半导体产业链收入与订单有望保持高速增长 关注半导体设备ETF
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 14:38
今日主要股指震荡分化,上证指数盘中一度跌破4100点,收跌0.33%,报4112.6点,深证成指收涨 0.41%,创业板指涨0.56%,科创综指跌0.55%。沪深两市成交额2.91万亿,较上一个交易日缩量1.04万 亿,超3100只个股下跌。分板块来看,半导体材料与设备,光刻机、先进封装等方向涨幅居前;AI应 用、商业航天概念回调明显。 // 半导体设备ETF(159516)今日午后强势崛起,收涨5.32%。 半导体产业链午后表现强劲。消息面上,台积电公布第四季度财报,实现净利润160亿美元,同比增长 35%,超预期创下历史新高;2026年资本开支指引大幅上调至520-560亿美元,2024年仅为409亿美元, 显著高于市场预期。台积电作为全球最大的芯片代工厂,其资本开支计划对产业下游具有重要参考意 义。同时,台积电预计未来三年资本开支有望显著增加,极大巩固了市场对AI长期需求的预期(仅用 于行业分析,不构成个股投资建议)。 全球AI大基建浪潮方兴未艾,先进制程、存储晶圆等细分方向的资本开支大周期已经开启,海外部分 设备公司的市值与订单规模均已突破历史新高。在AI基建持续推进的预期下,半导体产业链景气度有 望 ...
中国股票策略・“慢牛” 指南:背景、动因、挑战与展望-China Equity Strategy _Guide to the ‘slow bull‘ (part 1)_ Background, reasons, challenges and outlook
2026-01-15 06:33
ab Global Research What reforms are in progress? Current reforms focusing on investor returns (dividend payments, share buybacks, information disclosures) and market cap management could help to attract 'patient capital'; reforms directed at buoying M&A could facilitate companies' growth in size and strength; deepening SOE reforms may help drive re-ratings. Also, A-share liquidity may be improved by containing IPOs and major shareholders' stake reductions, coupled with efforts to draw in long-term funds. Mo ...
BLCR: Imperfect Risk-Adjusted Returns And Liquidity Weigh On The Rating, A Hold
Seeking Alpha· 2026-01-15 01:20
Vasily Zyryanov is an individual investor and writer.He uses various techniques to find both relatively underpriced equities with strong upside potential and relatively overappreciated companies that have inflated valuation for a reason.In his research, he pays much attention to the energy sector (oil & gas supermajors, mid-cap, and small-cap exploration & production companies, the oilfield services firms), while he also covers a plethora of other industries from mining and chemicals to luxury bellwethers.H ...
This Chemicals Company Pays a Nearly 11% Dividend Yield. Investors Are Doubtful.
Barrons· 2026-01-14 19:52
The chemicals producer LyondellBasell has a dividend yield of 10.5%, the highest of any company in the S&P 500. Investors are worried it won't last. In this article LYB DOW CAG CLX UPS A LyondellBasell refinery near the Houston Ship Channel, shown in September. (Photograph by Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images) ...
BASFY's Polyamide Materials Meet New eMobility Requirements
ZACKS· 2026-01-14 16:26
Key Takeaways BASFY adapts testing method for eMobility, reflecting higher ageing resistance needs than combustion engines.BASFY shifts from air-heat tests to hydrolysis storage to assess ageing in water-glycol mixtures.BASFY's Ultramid polyamide showed properties extrapolated beyond 100,000 hours after five years of testing.BASF SE (BASFY) has mainly tested the durability of materials in air-heat environments, but is now adapting to proven methods of hydrolysis storage to ascertain ageing in water-glycol m ...
ARKAY's New Rilsan Polyamide Unit Begins Operations in Singapore
ZACKS· 2026-01-14 16:26
Key Takeaways Arkema S.A. has begun operations at its new Rilsan Clear transparent polyamide production unit in Singapore.ARKAY's $20M investment strengthens its leadership in high-performance polymers.Arkema leads in bio-based transparent polyamides, with Rilsan Clear grades having up to 62% bio-based carbon.Arkema S.A. (ARKAY) has announced the successful start-up of its new Rilsan Clear transparent polyamides production unit operation at its Singapore platform. The move has significantly strengthened the ...
3 Basic Materials Funds to Buy as Cyclical Tailwinds Build
ZACKS· 2026-01-14 14:05
Industry Overview - The basic materials sector includes companies involved in discovering, developing, and processing raw materials essential for other industries, closely tied to economic cycles [1] - It comprises five industries: metals and mining, chemicals, construction materials, paper and forest products, and containers and packaging [1] Recent Performance - The sector has shown mixed performance over the past year, with the S&P 500 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) advancing 15.3% as of January 13 [2] - Metals and mining sectors performed well, while construction materials and chemicals lagged due to slower global growth and inflation concerns [2] - The cyclical nature of the sector makes it sensitive to global economic conditions, interest rates, and the effectiveness of China's stimulus [2] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 appears promising, with expected strong earnings growth for materials companies driven by pricing power from tariffs on steel and robust packaging demand [3] - Demand drivers such as electrification, infrastructure spending, and rising consumption of industrial commodities like lithium, copper, and rare earths are expected to support growth [3] Investment Opportunities - Materials funds can act as portfolio diversifiers and inflation hedges, as raw material prices often rise with inflation [4] - Well-managed materials mutual funds may capture growth while balancing risk across multiple industries within the sector [4][5] Selected Mutual Funds - **Fidelity Select Materials (FSDPX)**: Invests in companies involved in raw materials production, with a 3-year annualized return of 2.3% and a 5-year return of 7.2%, net expense ratio of 0.69%, and a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 2 [7][8] - **Franklin Gold and Precious Metals (FKRCX)**: Focuses on gold and precious metals operations, with a 3-year annualized return of 48.4% and a 5-year return of 21.1%, net expense ratio of 0.87%, and a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 2 [9][10] - **American Century Global Gold (ACGGX)**: Invests in gold-related companies, with a 3-year annualized return of 44.8% and a 5-year return of 20.1%, net expense ratio of 0.91%, and a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 1 [12]
25 Stocks to Target (and Avoid) After MLK Day
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2026-01-14 13:00
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has gotten off to a solid start in 2026, but history suggests next week may be more challenging. Markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and since they declared it a market holiday in 1998, stocks have tended to struggle during that shortened week. In the article below, I’ll unpack the return data for the SPX for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day week and break down the results by individual trading days. I’ll also look at stocks that have tended to outperform a ...