可见逢高结汇成为共识，企业抛弃刻舟求剑的固定点位，选择跟随趋势灵活调整。 节前节后的风险点在哪里 非美货币开启修复之际，人民币又重新回到了升值通道。就在昨天，美元兑人民币中间价创下2023年5月以来的新低，报6.9523，逼近6.95的关键 点位。 人民币升值的节奏是怎样的 去年12月人民币升值开始提速。继单月升值约900pips后，1月延续升值500pips。二月春节前企业集中结汇，日内升值时交易量陡增，尤其是远期 结汇量开始增多。 图：日内升值 时结汇量放大 如果用一词总结人民币的升值特征，应该是"以我为主"。本轮去美元化过程中，美元指数在96-99区间来回震荡，当美指下跌时，人民币顺势释放 升值动能，USDCNY下行斜率稳健；当美指上行时，人民币跟随其微幅调整，USDCNY反弹空间受限，多在100pips以内。 图：中间价调整速度加快 如果从去年4月份贸易战的高点算起，美元兑人民币中间价已经连续8个月下行。其中经历过9月份至11月份的低波盘整，但最终回到了贴近市场升 值速率的轨道上。春节将至，还应该持汇过节吗？ 人民币受美指影响较小 一是春节前结汇力量下的供需失衡。尽管2月已经升值了300pips，但按 ...

If an inverted yield curve is a harbinger of a near-term recession, then a steeper yield curve must be good news, right? Not so fast. Before unpacking that, let’s lay a bit of foundation just in case you don’t follow the shape of various yield curves very closely. Yield curve basics in 100 words: The yield curve is a measurement of bond yields of various terms from a few months to many years. Most often it has a positive slope, meaning 10-year yields are higher than 2-year yields. Locking your money up ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike has not provided a lasting boost to the yen, leading to increased skepticism about the currency's structural weaknesses and the outlook for its recovery [1]. Group 1: Yen Forecasts and Market Sentiment - Strategists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA predict the yen could weaken to 160 per dollar or lower by the end of 2026, influenced by significant US-Japan yield gaps, negative real interest rates, and ongoing capital outflows [2]. - The yen has gained less than 1% against the US dollar this year after four consecutive years of decline, with a brief rise past 140 per dollar in April before losing momentum due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and political risks in Japan [3]. - Junya Tanase, chief Japan FX strategist at JPMorgan, holds a particularly bearish forecast for the yen, predicting it could reach 164 per dollar by the end of 2026, citing weak fundamentals and potential cyclical forces that may further depress the currency [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics - Current market expectations indicate that the next Bank of Japan rate hike is not fully anticipated until September, while inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, putting additional pressure on Japanese government bonds [5]. - The resurgence of carry trades, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, is creating additional challenges for the yen's recovery, with leveraged funds showing significant bearish positions on the currency [6]. - Analysts suggest that global macro conditions in the coming year may support risk sentiment, which could benefit carry strategies and keep the dollar-yen exchange rate elevated, with expectations of the dollar-yen rising to 160 by the end of 2026 [7].

From setup to unwindA balanced overview of carry trade mechanicsRead more 👇https://t.co/rHmJ1Prxdd ...

I have been getting a lot of comments on the channel talking about this $100 end of the year price prediction. A lot of you want to know my opinion on this. And I think by the end of this video, you guys might, you know, hate me, you might like me. I have no idea. But regardless of this, I'm going to give you guys my 100% real reaction to all of this. And I'm going to give you guys my opinion on these types of timeframe price predictions. And that's a very important thing to focus on here is the timeframe p ...

Core Viewpoint - The state of the labor market is critical for determining the Federal Reserve's future actions, with expectations of a weaker labor market leading to a more dovish Fed stance than currently anticipated [2][3]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is for one more rate cut from the Fed, while the market is pricing in two or more cuts [4]. - Growth is expected to hold up better, and inflation is anticipated to improve, which will lead the Fed to adopt an accommodative policy [5]. - The fixed income market is projected to be less volatile in the coming year compared to the previous year, with a return to a carry trade keeping long-term rates stable [6]. Monetary Policy Divergence - There is a divergence in monetary policy globally, with some countries tightening while the US and China are expected to maintain accommodative policies [7]. - Recent Fed votes showed significant divergence among members regarding rate cuts, highlighting the importance of upcoming economic data [8]. Equity Market Expectations - The equity market outlook for 2026 is constructive, with expectations of increased nominal growth and strong earnings supported by fiscal stimulus and deregulation [8][9]. - Fiscal stimulus is expected to be front-loaded in the first half of 2026, which includes tax refunds and incentives for capital expenditures [10]. Fed Chair Impact - The credibility of the Fed chair is crucial for maintaining bond market stability, and the leadership of the new chair will significantly influence this credibility [12][14]. - All candidates for the Fed chair position are viewed as credible, and the independence of the Fed is seen as a gradual process rather than a binary state [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate changes are less significant than the broader implications of the bond market and long-term interest rates, particularly in light of rising U.S. federal debt and international rate dynamics [1][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve primarily controls very short-term interest rates, specifically the rates at which banks borrow from the central bank and each other [3]. - The Fed's actions can influence the entire yield curve, but many factors affecting interest rates are beyond its control [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - Recent movements in long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields and prices are critical, with potential significant impacts expected [5]. - The increasing federal debt has transitioned from a future concern to an immediate issue, exacerbated by legal challenges to tariffs and rising rates in Japan [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The Ultrapro Short 20 Year Treasury -3X ETF (TTT) is highlighted as a potential investment vehicle for profiting from rising long-term rates, though it carries high leverage risks [8].

Market Opportunity - Agent-managed vaults are able to identify real-time market opportunities [1] - aiAVAX earned depositors over 30% on their AVAX due to a sAVAX carry trade [1] - The sAVAX market discount was around 0.55% due to sellers needing instant liquidity [1] Strategy - The strategy involved acquiring sAVAX at a discount and unwinding it over 14 days via BenqiFinance [1] - The strategy may not always be viable as a singular approach [2] - aiAVAX is prepared to capitalize on the best yield opportunities for depositors in the future [2]

Core Insights - The message from prominent figures in finance emphasizes buying during market unease rather than chasing rallies driven by greed [1][2] - The Fear and Greed Index currently indicates a level of 20, reflecting fear in the crypto market [2] - The collapse of Japan's carry trade, a significant factor in global asset inflation, is highlighted as a critical issue [2][3] Market Dynamics - The Bank of Japan's recent rate hikes have led to government bond yields exceeding 1.7%, a level not seen since 2008, impacting the carry trade [3] - As borrowing costs rise, investors are facing increased yen liabilities while their foreign asset positions decline, leading to forced liquidations [3] Bitcoin Metrics - Bitcoin's Net Realized Profit and Loss is retreating towards the zero line, indicating a potential end to forced selling and the beginning of a stable phase [4] - Current Bitcoin prices around the $90K level suggest a balance between buyers and sellers, indicating a truce in the market [4][5] - Analysts describe the current market state as an equilibrium zone, where investors are reassessing their investment strategies [5] Accumulation Phase - If Bitcoin's Net Realized Profit and Loss remains above zero, it could signal the start of a stronger recovery base [5] - Recent price movements show Bitcoin slipping below significant historical levels, suggesting that investors are returning to accumulation [5]

Core Insights - The author has extensive experience in executive management, particularly in insurance/reinsurance and the Asia Pacific markets, with a focus on climate change and ESG [1] Group 1 - The author holds an honours degree in economics and politics, emphasizing economic development [1] - The author has 36 years of experience in executive management, indicating a deep understanding of market dynamics [1] - The author's investment activities are conducted in a personal capacity, suggesting independence in analysis [1]