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Why Roblox's Q1 Has BofA Analyst Optimistic For Long-Term Prospects, Despite Investor Sentiment Split About Growth
Benzingaยท 2025-04-21 18:13
Core Viewpoint - BofA Securities analyst maintains a Buy rating on Roblox Corporation (RBLX) with a price forecast of $79, anticipating market share gains in the video game sector due to a large developer pool and innovation capabilities [1] Company Performance Expectations - Investor sentiment regarding first-quarter growth is divided, with some expecting over 30% year-over-year growth, while others predict a more modest 23%, consistent with guidance [3] - Management's caution regarding third-quarter bookings comparisons has led to expectations of a significant slowdown in core business growth in the second half of 2025, potentially falling below 20% year-over-year [3] Revenue and Cash Flow Insights - Expectations for advertising revenue remain low at around $150 million, despite the integration of Google Ad Manager with Roblox [4] - Strong performance from December and January is expected to continue into February, with a slight slowdown in March attributed to Easter timing; cash flow metrics may exceed expectations due to December bookings [4] Strategic Initiatives - Several initiatives, including regional pricing and price optimization, could lead to stronger-than-expected performance in the second half of 2025 [5] Market Position - Roblox is currently under-owned, but this may change as investors seek companies with durable growth prospects, particularly those less affected by tariffs or consumer spending fluctuations in late 2025 [2]