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Investment Rating - The report upgrades the year-end gold price forecast to $3,700/toz from a previous estimate of $3,300/toz, with a projected range of $3,650-3,950/toz [5][7][19]. Core Insights - The gold price has reached a new all-time high of $3,245/toz, recovering sharply after a 5% drop due to margin calls during an equity selloff [3][6]. - Stronger-than-expected central bank demand and increased recession risk are significant factors driving the upgraded forecast [5][19]. - The report indicates a 45% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, which could lead to accelerated ETF inflows and potentially lift gold prices to $3,880/toz by year-end [19][24]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Dynamics - The gold price has shown resilience, recovering from a drop linked to US tariff announcements, with speculative positioning falling sharply while ETF holdings increased due to recession concerns [3][6]. - The report notes that physical demand in the East has risen as prices decreased, contributing to the recovery [3][6]. Central Bank Demand - The central bank buying assumption has been nudged up to 80 tonnes per month, reflecting a strong nowcast of 106 tonnes in February, significantly above previous assumptions [10][19]. - China was identified as a major buyer, accounting for 50 tonnes in February [13][19]. ETF Inflows and Recession Risk - Historical data suggests that ETF flows tend to overshoot during recession concerns, and the report incorporates this into its forecasting model [16][19]. - If a recession occurs, ETF inflows could return to pandemic levels, supporting prices towards $3,880/toz by year-end [24][25]. Upside Risks - The report highlights that risks to the upgraded forecast remain skewed to the upside, with potential scenarios illustrating gold prices reaching $4,500/toz by the end of 2025 under extreme conditions [23][25]. - Conversely, if economic growth surprises positively, ETF flows may revert to previous predictions, leading to year-end prices closer to $3,550/toz [24][29].