Tax Bill Overview - The House is expected to vote on President Trump's tax bill, likely resembling the Senate version [1][2] - Democrats argue the bill disproportionately benefits higher-income households [6] Income Group Impact - The bottom 20% could see a decrease in after-tax income of approximately $560 per year, equivalent to a 23% decline [3] - The middle 20% might experience a slight increase of about $760 annually, representing a 15% rise in after-tax income [3] - The top 20% could receive a tax cut of around $6000, approximately a 23% increase [4] - The top 1% may see a tax cut of about 21%, with benefits potentially declining at the very top due to income thresholds [4] Key Provisions & Costs - Extending the standard deduction is estimated to cost $14 trillion [5] - The child tax credit is valued at $800 billion [5] - Limiting taxes on tips and overtime amounts to over $120 billion [5] - Extending lower marginal tax rates is the most expensive component, exceeding $1 trillion [5] Beneficiaries - Approximately 80% of the benefits from the Senate bill are projected to go to the top 10% of earners [2][6] - The top 10% contribute 70% of the taxes [6] - The working and middle classes are expected to benefit from provisions like the standard deduction and child tax credit [7] Business Impact - Immediate expensing of R&D and capital investment is considered the most economically significant aspect for businesses [7]

Tax Bill Details - Expanded child tax credit [1] - Baby bonds referred to as "Trump accounts" [1] - Significant increases in immigration spending [1]

Fertility Rates & Demographics - US fertility rates are hovering around historic lows, approximately 16% births per 10 women over their lifetime, below the 21% needed to sustain the population [1] - Projections indicate that about 25% of young adults today will never have children [1] - Falling birth rates are a concern due to their impact on people's lives, the economy, and the government [2] - Many countries are seeing below replacement fertility, including Mexico [28] Economic Impact - Declining fertility rates could lead to a drag on the US economy and the capacity to cover government programs like Medicare and Social Security [3] - Lower birth rates affect the entire economy, impacting the number of consumers, workers, and taxpayers [5] - A shrinking worker-to-retiree ratio could threaten the financial sustainability of Social Security, with current estimations suggesting solvency until 2033 [6] - Economic uncertainty can lead to decline in fertility [23] Policy & Incentives - Politicians are starting to pay attention to the issue, with leaders proposing ways to address the birth rate decline [3][7] - Both Democrats and Republicans have proposed policies providing money to families, such as baby bonuses or expanded child tax credits [9][10] - A $5,000 baby bonus is not likely to significantly budge fertility rates [12] - Increasing the child tax credit to $4,500 per child could lead to a 3-10% increase in fertility [13][14] - Governments have attempted to influence family formation practices, but these policies may have unintended consequences [16][17] Societal Factors - It's hard to combine work and having kids in modern US society due to limited support for families [4] - A cultural shift is occurring, with young adults prioritizing education, money, and careers [24][25] - Delay in adulthood and difficulty affording a house may push childbearing to later ages, potentially leading to fewer children [19][20] - Immigration could help offset the economic impacts of population decline, but it's politically and demographically uncertain long term [27][28]