Core Insights - China's exports have significantly supported the global container market despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., with its global export share increasing to approximately 37 percent in 2023 from 33 percent in the previous year [1] - Maersk has revised its global container market volume growth forecast upwards, now expecting a growth of 4 percent in 2025, an increase from the previous range of 2 percent to 4 percent [2] - The demand for container shipping has shown remarkable resilience, with Maersk reporting a 7 percent increase in volume for the third quarter, moving 3.4 million containers [3] Export Growth - China's export growth has accelerated in all regions except North America, with exports to the U.S. declining by 27 percent while exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 15.6 percent and 14.1 percent respectively [4] - The strong export growth from China is attributed to its widely available production capacity and competitive products, indicating a sustained momentum in exports [3][4] Company Performance - Maersk's volume growth reflects the overall optimism in the market, particularly in East-to-West trade lanes, which saw a 9.6 percent increase [3] - The company's Gemini Cooperation vessel-sharing alliance with Hapag-Lloyd has resulted in a $50 million cost benefit in the third quarter [5] - Maersk has raised its full-year guidance for pre-tax operating profit, increasing the lower end from $2 billion to $3 billion, while maintaining the higher end at $3.5 billion [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for exports, expecting growth to slip below 5% year-on-year in April 2025 [5][8]. Core Insights - Exports surged year-on-year in March 2025, but this is attributed to normalization from the residual effects of the Lunar New Year seasonality rather than a genuine improvement in underlying momentum [3][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw export growth decrease to 5.7%, down from 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024, influenced by fading front-loading and tariffs related to Fentanyl [3][8]. - Imports showed modest recovery with a growth rate of -4.3% in March 2025, compared to -8.4% in January-February, primarily affected by significant declines in iron ore and coal imports [4][8]. Summary by Sections Exports - March 2025 exports reached $314 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.3%, but the underlying momentum is weakening [7]. - Exports to the US decreased from 10.5% growth in Q4 2024 to 5.0% in Q1 2025, indicating a shift in performance [3][7]. Imports - Total imports in March 2025 were $211 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3% [7]. - Key products contributing to import declines include iron ore (-27%) and coal, reflecting ongoing steel production cuts [4][7]. Outlook - The report anticipates that export growth will soften further due to substantial US tariffs on China, although front-loading in supply-chain trade and electronics may provide some short-term relief [5][8]. - The front-loading of the National People's Congress's RMB 2 trillion stimulus is expected to mitigate the impact of tariffs in the second quarter of 2025 [8].